The average user cares less about their OS being EoL, than that they have to learn a whole new OS that works "completely" different to what they are used to.
This just objectively isn't true. The XP EOL date actually forced users hands. There WAS refresh cycle in 2014, the only reason it didn't turn in to the uprising it is seemingly turned into, is because Microsoft kinda got lucky, and this refresh cycle purged Pentim 4-s and Celeron M-s and Pentium D-s, and old Athlons, all of which were ewaste from new.