1mo ago

Ukraine is losing up to 20 sq km of territory per day, Russians have seized 3,600 sq km in past year – Militarnyi

www.pravda.com.ua Ukraine is losing up to 20 sq km of territory per day, Russians have seized 3,600 sq km in past year – Militarnyi

Ukraine’s defence forces lost control of over 3,600 sq km of territory in 2024, losing more than 20 sq km per day in November. In 2023, they lost a total of about 540 sq km and liberated about 430 sq km.

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4w ago

Ukraine is losing up to 20 sq km of territory per day, Russians have seized 3,600 sq km in past year

www.pravda.com.ua /eng/news/2025/01/4/7492042/

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1mo ago

Ukraine is Losing up to 20 sq km of Territory per Day, Russians have Seized 3,600 sq km in Past Year – Militarnyi

www.pravda.com.ua /eng/news/2025/01/4/7492042/

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The mark of a great army is how well they retreat, regroup, and fight on. Ukraine is doing well.
- Well, they also face quite some serious desertion issues at the moment too.
  
  War is hell on both sides. The difference is Ukraine is fighting to survive, Russia is fighting for a pipe dream.
  
  I'm not questioning that, I just am very worried how this will continue - especially after the orange toddler gets into office.
  
  Yes, it seems impossible to try to guess what he will do? But even without US aid, Ukraine will still receive much aid from other countries, and Ukraine's economy is doing much much better than Russia. 15 days to go before Trump is inaugurated.
  If I had to make a guess, it seems like Putin isn't willing to negotiate, and it might be Trump's best bet to continue or even increase aid to Ukraine to save face, when it turns out peace negotiations are going nowhere.
  But that's probably just me trying to rationalize what I hope for.
  
  I've read one of the loudest recent cases is a brigade most of the personnel of which was sent to train in France.
  I suppose a lot of those are kids of rich parents or something like that, picked for that for a bribe, and they probably expected war to end before they return.
  It can be that similar dynamics affect other units with lots of desertions, but that's just guessing from news.
  
  It's not just that one unfortunately. It's likely at around 100.000 deserters now, and half of that were from 2024 alone.
  https://english.elpais.com/international/2024-10-14/alarm-in-ukraine-over-increasing-number-of-army-deserters.html
  
  I think people doing that for reasons from the article should be allowed to return as instructors. If there are enough new people to instruct, that is, but for that one can try attracting more foreign volunteers. With money if possible. And yes, to have longer leaves, therapy.
  Anyway, rotation is a thing. It also involves putting less (mentally too) weary units to harder roles.
  Also people incapable of fighting due to injuries can probably be still fit to serve in AD, or as remote drone operators (not how they do it from the neighboring field, but from far away). I guess droid armies are still not today's reality, but they should work both on morale and on reducing further casualties.
- No it's not.
  Ukrainian troops' qualification levels are dropping and they have manpower shortages. You can train a man in realistic time during war (if you have competent men free to do that, and not fighting), but you can't grow a baby into a man and then train him in realistic time during war.
  Mercenaries are not a complete replacement.
  I mean, for an ex-Soviet army they've shown class (and by the way, nothing in that was about inferiority of Soviet doctrine or something, just using it right). But they can't fight a trice stronger adversary with more than trice stronger economy on their own territory (which means that their own economy is half-dead), without some other component, and the amount of Western help right now is just not sufficient.
  
  It's easy to look at the side of a war of attrition where you have more information and say that they're losing because you don't have as much information on the other side. Russia has every reason to present itself as still having massive reserves to call upon because it helps their case.
  Many people thought that Germany was on the cusp of winning WWI during the spring offensive in 1918.
  That being said I think Ukraine's situation isn't great. I was surprised at the seeming depth of the Russia's reserves. They have been sustaining incredible losses for the last year almost, and yet continue to advance. During previous phases of the war we saw them overextend themselves and then have to retreat against Ukrainian advances.
  Russia's reserves are finite both in terms of manpower and equipment. They are demonstrating strain in both categories and will presumably start to have sustainment issues soon. If Ukraine can hold together and stop the advance then presumably the next phase would be a negotiated peace hopefully. There's always a chance that some shoe could drop though. Putin could die or get overthrown, the west could withdraw all support, China could start providing blank-check support to Russia, Russia could successfully go into full-mobilization mode.
  
  I live in Russia. There even isn't much panic about being caught on the street to be conscripted, because that's still rare luck. Can't say anything about Russian economy, probably they are burning reserves to make it appear more stable from the inside than it really is.
  Russia’s reserves are finite both in terms of manpower and equipment.
  Three times those of Ukraine, with similar expenses.
  They are demonstrating strain in both categories and will presumably start to have sustainment issues soon. If Ukraine can hold together and stop the advance then presumably the next phase would be a negotiated peace hopefully.
  Except Ukraine is having these issues right now. It came there faster. I too think there will be something negotiated, but definitely not good.
  Putin could die or get overthrown
  I think whichever way this war ends, this will happen. It's just too much of a bloodbath, the war has to end somehow, and then he'll be reminded that there's more to that regime than one man.
  
  There even isn’t much panic about being caught on the street to be conscripted
  Because Russia hasn't mobilized besides the "partial mobilization" in 2022. The question is why. One theory is that they don't need to. The other theory is that they can't. I live in the US and remember the Iraq war. In 2004 one of the biggest things going around was that Bush was going to start conscription.
  But if he were to have attempted mobilization the support for the war in the US would have instantly collapsed so instead he tried various things to fill the ranks like using mercenaries, "backdoor drafts" via stoploss, activating national guard, etc. And in the end, let's be honest, the US lost both of Bush's wars.
  
  One theory is that they don’t need to.
  They are giving citizenship to labor migrants for service there, and to various illegals, so I'd say they need it.
  The other theory is that they can’t.
  They can. That "partial mobilization" is still in effect. These people are simply afraid of calling anything by its name.
  They want to pretend it's still 00s and we are an imperfect democracy with a counter-terrorist operation slowly going on in Northern Caucasus, we have a fairly elected president with his high rating, stability and booming economy and all that. They really liked that while it lasted.
  But, ahem, they don't want to let go of power. Still, they are trying to call everything the words which would aesthetically fit into that atmosphere of 00s, and it doesn't make any sense for anyone outside their crowd.
  And in the end, let’s be honest, the US lost both of Bush’s wars.
  It lost the peace after. It won both wars.
  I mean, one can redefine a lot of terms, but then USSR lost WWII, since it fscked up the restoration of its parts of Europe.

30 comments