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I expect there's going to be a massive political upheaval in Europe, and possibly in US as well. Losing the war will be the backdrop for the economic crash that western economies are now entering. People were sold on a quick war that was supposed to secure western dominance over the world. There wasn't supposed to be any significant economic blowback in the west, but now people are increasingly connecting the war with their declining standard of living. This is now translating into a political backlash against the people who championed the war.
The west will see itself deeply humiliated, they will have to come to terms with the fact that majority of the world does not stand with the west and actively resents western system. This is going to be a hard pill to swallow for people who've been taught all their lives that they're cream of the crop of humanity.
The big question is where the west is headed once the current system implodes. Unfortunately, all the indicators are that western countries are increasingly flirting with fascism and the right is growing rapidly. Unless the left becomes a lot better at organizing and recruiting, we'll likely see full blown fascism taking hold shortly.
yeah, they're not gonna come to terms with the rest of the world having real people. they're gonna go full fascist and blame the usual suspects for this loss, and try to take as many people with them in their suicidal death drive as they can.
I definitely expect the west to embrace fascism because that's the natural evolution of the capitalist system in a crisis. The problem the west has right now is that it allowed itself to be deindustrialized, and it's heavily dependent on the rest of the world for a lot of essentials. This problem doesn't really have an easy solution as you can't just flip a switch and create a domestic industrial economy out of the whole cloth. And as western influence continues to shrink the west will loose access to cheap commodities they've been extracting from the rest of the world. We're seeing a perfect example of this happening with Niger asserting its sovereignty and kicking France out. All of a sudden France lost access to effectively free uranium that it was robbing Niger of. Having to deal with other countries on equal terms means higher input prices for western industries, and that will only heighten the economic crisis.
This problem doesn’t really have an easy solution as you can’t just flip a switch and create a domestic industrial economy out of the whole cloth.
Haha I should've qualified that with under capitalism :)
Only possible with communist magic 🪄
Lucy: It'll be a quick war, Charlie Brown!
In and out, a quick adventure.
Home by Christmas (but which Christmas?)...
we'll likely see full blown fascism taking hold shortly
With a real possibility it'll be followed eventually by nuclear war
Entirely likely unfortunately.
The left recently won in Slovakia on an anti-Ukraine war platform. It can be done, we're not doomed to fascism. Western and especially European Leftists need to stop being chauvinist succs and actually oppose the imperialist Ukraine War, then they have a chance of taking power. They're losing their window and the fascists are a couple steps ahead. Come on EU leftists, it's time to get serious. You are in Germany 1935.
Yeah, it's not all lost yet for sure. The left really does need to shape up fast though. I think the key reason the right is becoming so popular is precisely because they were the only ones who took an anti war position from the start. The left shat the bed by aligning with liberals.
but now people are increasingly connecting the war with their declining standard of living. This is now translating into a political backlash against the people who championed the war.
Could you elaborate on this? I dont follow. How is our standaed of living connected to this war?
The most obvious way is that productive resources are being directed towards Ukraine rather then being invested domestically. For example, if a country chooses so open a factory to produce artillery shells instead of building hospitals, then this has an impact on the standard of living. The less direct impact comes from the economic war with Russia where western economies are starting see sever economic blowback. Europe in particular has seen a huge increase in energy prices, and this translates into the economic problems we're currently seeing. The rise of BRICS and dedollarization also have an impact as this shrinks dollar based economy.
Ah that makes sense. In the US, I don't hear a lot of chatter blaming the war for our woes, just the usual partisan politics stuff
It's not a coincidence that we saw 11% inflation in cost of living at the start of the war. We imported a lot of things from Russia. Without those things, we have to pay more.
How is our standaed of living connected to this war?
In the EU at least, believe me we're fucking feeling it (in energy and fuel prices, which are themselves impacting food prices, etc.). Though the war isn't the only factor of course.
I saw things immediately shoot up in price when I go out to get groceries. What might have cost me €20 just 2 years ago, often now steps above €30. The lack of Russian-produced foodstuffs (which were often cheaper) also means there's no competition.
In contrast, the wages have had less of an effect than trying to divert an EF-5 tornado with your jizz.
I wonder if destroying the nordstream pipelines and the cheap natural gas from Russia has any impact on the EU economy and electricity prices, and the resulting de-industrialization? How about the massive unprecedented sanctions on one of the largest resource exporters on Earth? How about the destruction of the grain production center of Europe and the associated infrastructure and ports? This is all not even taking into consideration the global de-dollarization move that is making non-western countries increasingly sovereign and able to resist western neo-colonialism, which increases prices for those in the core as it gets harder to extract from their colonies.
Oh yeah, and sending several hundred billion dollars to Ukraine to get blown up instead of using that money on domestic development. China could have made a thousand new factories with the money that the west has squandered in Ukraine.
gas prices went up $2/gal last year. they came down some over time, but i mean, there's an example