Russia Civil War?
Russia Civil War?
FSB opens criminal case after Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia’s military of rocket attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stopped
Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, said publicly that the war was waged on false grounds. In response, the Russian Army shelled a bunch of Wagner soldiers, killing many of them. Now, it seems like fighting is starting between Russian Army soldiers and Wagner soldiers around Rostov.
"FSB opens criminal case after Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia’s military of attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stopped"
“This is not a military coup, this is a march of justice" -- Prigozhin, head of Wagner
They know that Russia cannot win, it's too late. They had their chance and they blew it. Now is the time for the FSB to search for scapegoats on whom to put the failure on, in the typical KGB style.
These military know that, they know that if they come back to Moscow with such a defeat they will be shot by a firing squad. My guess is they believe that their best chance at survival is a putsch. There won't be a regroup and a new attack against Ukraine, a least not now, because they know that Kiev cannot fall with Europe supporting them. So these russian military will fight back, put the blame on the FSB and at the first opportunity the whole conflict will be over.
Russia will attack again though, in like ten years.
Honest question - if the Wagner group succeeds and deposes Putin does that allow the UN to boot Russia from permanent member status since it no longer exists?
A change in leadership/government doesn't mean Russia will cease to exist.
But it's a very interesting question. Here's the UN article on elegible members:
https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/chapter-2
(note the: "Membership in the United Nations is open to all other peace-loving states")It would be difficult as Russia has Veto power, but it can be temporarily suspended if they are under "deliberation by the security council". This article explains how it might be possible:
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3717566-how-to-expel-russia-from-the-un/The consequences of an expulsion would be worth considering as well!