Could homebuyers finally catch a break? Experts predict a housing glut in 2024

Morgan Stanley sees two potential outcomes for housing prices next year.

One, if mortgage rates slide from their peak this year, the housing market could see demand ramp up, pushing prices up another 5% in 2024.

On the other hand, if mortgage rates remain high and the U.S. enters a recession, that will scare off homebuyers and home prices will recede more.

So effectively, either way, they will remain out of reach.

Same as it ever was.

Could homebuyers finally catch a break? No

It's always no unless the local economy busts.

The couple years leading up to The Pandemic were very much "a break". Yes, house prices were ever growing but interest rates were ridiculously low. So a LOT of people bought homes that actually came out comparable to what they would be paying in rent.

Albeit, that was also a function of the fearmongering and "You need a 30% down payment" reactions to the insanity of the late 00s. So people who either had insane amounts of money in the bank or who realized PMI is not that much and it was worth "locking in" at a low interest rate? it was a really good time to buy a house.

Albeit, then we entered the current insanity of high interest rates coupled with ever increasing housing prices.
- I bought with 10% down in early 2020 and my PMI is only $40/mo which is nothing when you consider my mortgage is fixed at $1500/mo for an entire house while 2 or 3 bedroom apartments are going for more than that in the area now and are unlikely to ever come back down. Our previous 2/1 apartment increased from $550/mo to $1000/mo from 2009 to 2015 when we moved into this house (which we rented and then later bought from the landlord) without a single upgrade or improvement over that time.
I was about to say. I haven’t read the article, but wouldn’t that happen only if the housing market crashes?
- Housing is local, so if you live in a town with an economy dependent on a small number of industries, and those jobs dry up, people are going to be leaving town. That would make that specific area's housing prices crash. If it's a major reducing in jobs (i.e. - the only factory in town closed, taking all the jobs with it), then there might be a permanent oversupply of empty houses (i.e. - Detroit).
- The article doesn't base it on anything other than, sellers want to sell. It's all assumptions based on other assumptions.

Were are the houses supposed to come from? I don't see many being built around me. Sellers aren't just going to put their house up for sale unless they have someplace to move to.

1.6 million houses are being built annually right now in the US. Some of that is in big developments somewhere else but if people are buying those homes they are not buying the homes near you so there is one more house on the market near you.

Also, almost 3.5 million people die every year and that doesn't account for people moving into old folks homes etc.
- 4,138,349 were born 18 years ago
Black rock could be selling, if ownership isn’t as profitable as they expected.

So the scenarios are:

Interest rates go down and prices go up. Making it more expensive to get a house.
Interest rates stay the same, number of homes increase, causing prices to go down.

I can't tell how either scenario is a good deal for current homeowners.

Yeah, it's easier to sell my home, but harder to buy a new one.
Easier to sell my home, for less money, and I get a higher interest rate on a new home.

Lose/Lose.