I fully believe they are capable of making Joe Biden a one-term president and electing Donald Trump instead. But if their goals are to make the presidency less pro-Israel I guess I would say that plan of action is actually stupider than re-electing Biden.
Polling in Michigan is essentially 50/50. Polls have Trump up by within the margin of error, with an impossible 10-20% of people undecided or voting third party.
Meanwhile there is no likely voter screen on current polls, and when the NYT did a likely voter screen nationally it helped Biden (Trump historically overperforms among the low-propensity voters so that tracks).
And Trump has underperformed his polls in every race so far in the primaries.
And it's 9 months until the election.
You'd rather be on the winning side of 39-42 but it's pretty far from catastrophic.