Bulletins and News Discussion from February 26th to March 3rd, 2024 - Breaking The Siege Of Omdurman - COTW: Sudan
Bulletins and News Discussion from February 26th to March 3rd, 2024 - Breaking The Siege Of Omdurman - COTW: Sudan
The war in Sudan has so far been marked by a lot of incompetency and mismanagement by government forces (the SAF). After months of bitter fighting, in late 2023, the opposing Rapid Support Forces suddenly expanded their control towards the southeast of Khartoum after not a lot of resistance, most notably taking the city of Wad Madani. This led the SAF supporters and officials to panic and point fingers at each other about what the hell the army is even doing, while RSF soldiers looted the city.
These victories led to a short period in late December and early January where diplomacy and peace talks were considered, but such attempts fell apart. The leader of the RSF visited various African countries, including meeting Paul Kagame in Rwanda, to boost his legitimacy. Then, the RSF attacked into South Kordofan and consolidated their hold on other areas.
The Sudanese capital of Khartoum sits on a river which divides it from the city to its west, Omdurman (see the post image). The SAF and RSF have been fighting over this grand urban area for the whole war, with the RSF holding most of Khartoum (with an entirely cut-off SAF force holding on in the center), with a similarly cut-off SAF force also in eastern Omdurman, up against the river. For 10 months, this force has been under siege - but no longer. In perhaps the first actual W of the war for the SAF, they finally managed to break the siege a week ago, pouring supplies in. This leaves a section of the RSF now cut off, though Omdurman is still not under full SAF control (and, who knows, the whole situation could once again go badly for the SAF).
Meanwhile, the Sudanese socioeconomic situation has completely collapsed, with potentially a 20% fall in GDP and 8 million people displaced, with 2 million from Khartoum alone. 18 million Sudanese, or about a third of the population, is in acute hunger, and 20 million children are out in school. The refugees streaming out of the country are causing knock-on effects in neighorboring countries like Chad. Nobody is even really counting the dead anymore.
Red is the government forces, the SAF. Blue is the RSF opposition. Other colours are various factions.
The Country of the Week is Sudan! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
The bulletins site is here!
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Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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It's really depressing how much worse shit has gotten globally. 1950s style sexism seems to have made a grand comeback, men in positions of power don't even face the minimal consequences they used to when caught abusing a woman, attitudes towards LGBT rights seems to be going backwards, racism has never left but people aren't even pretending to be "politically correct" anymore. That's not to mention ongoing wars and genocide because of Western military domination. The Ukraine war will probably end up being more devastating than Iraq when all is said and done, and Israel is killing Palestinians and committing genocide at an unprecedented rate. Not even during the height of the war on terror of the 2000s was Israel doing anything near as devastating as they are doing now.
Genuinely have no idea what my place in this world is. Should shit go south in South Africa (lol), and I was looking to try to move to one of the "pro LGBT humanist" western countries, they would probably hate on me if my partner was the wrong race. Yet if I were to go to another country on the African continent, there would be a ton of hate for being LGBT. Like is there any place on this planet for us? Trying to maintain hope with everything that's happening globally but it's getting really hard. Where do we go from here, honestly. Everything seems set in motion already, and there seems to be nothing anyone can do about it except for playing their expected part. Maybe the grass is greener where you water it, but community outreach is really difficult.
Cuba and China are the only hopes
China won't do anything. There is a genocide going on and they are not doing anything and they won't do anything. People love to mock ussr and praise China but Israel could never do this if ussr was still up. China is not ussr. China isn't imperialist but they will never be anti imperialist. They won't support any decolonization.
I get being jaded to China’s response, but the USSR was present and stood by for almost 50 years of the ethnic cleansing of Palestine.
and they supplied them and anyone who stood with them. it is not that they did not try. it was that they failed
True, I passive-voiced it
The USSR helped the establishment of the state of Israel via huge weapons transfer from Czechoslovakia and politically backed it in the hopes of creating a socialist country in an area dominated by Monarch's and Western powers. While obviously a mistake in hindsight such a crucial mistake and misreading of the character of this new country founded on apartheid and forced displacement was unacceptable. Also like @bbnh69420@hexbear.net said below the USSR was around and did not invade or destroy Israel, however the idea that they just stood by is inane both the Soviet Union and China provided much support arms,intelligence and of course political support for a Palestinian state. The USSR was destroyed by historical nihilism, liberal reforms, unchecked bourgeois nationalism and gangster-ism among others. China still exists and have stopped exporting the revolution as it has not worked! Instead pivoting to common prosperity between all countries while their continued success becomes inspiration to all communists everywhere and proves that a better future is possible! If blame is to be laid anywhere is not that China and the USSR did not somehow destroy Israel but instead a failure of the American proletariat and Vanguard parties for not being able to seize power and stopping their country's support for Israel which without America could not exist! Expecting China and the USSR to solve all the worlds problems while the first world proles cheer lead and gives a thumb up from the sideline is a dangerous and non materialist view of the world's progression to socialism, the American masses cannot be mere spectators and expect the rest of world of the world to come to their rescue. The American masses have more than any other a obligation to struggle and seize power for themselves as this would bring the empire to it's end. No more excuses the workers purchasing power has cratered and so has the cost of living increased the great bargain struck between workers and the American bourgeois after WW2 is over. The American proles with communists at the head must struggle now and push ahead towards a final confrontation with the bourgeois and stop becoming a spectator of history to enact it.
they helped israel before nakba, not after. and after that, they become much more hostile to isreal and supported palestine . I am not american, I stopped hoping american people ovethrowing imperialism long ago. I also stopped hoping china to fund anti imperialism. Marxist leninism faltering is direct outcome of china not doing anything. Many third world people sided with ussr and adopted marxist leninism because ussr helped them overthrow their colonizers. Same reason why hamas is much more popular than PFLP. Hamas is the one getting funded by iran and so being able to do anti imperialist struggle. you can refuse radical islamism for only a time when they are the ones supporting you against colonizers. ussr funded many anti imperialist struggles, my country included. that is why even after its death, people become communist because of ussr, not china. China deserves sovereignity over their own land but they will never be any imperialisms victim hope. I am not saying china should invade every colonizer, just supply arms and funds to anti imperialist struggle. they will never be the reason anyone outside china becomes communist. it used to be that they don't want to be antagonist to west before, but now west is completly hostile against china. Full support to palestine would not make west any more hostile to china. Even in vietnem was ussr could not trust the china to completly safely transfer military equipment to vietnam
Exporting the revolution has failed the fall of the USSR and then the fall of every socialist country supported by them in Africa and the middle east proves that a new direction must be taken one that does not rely upon foreign saviors but is instead deeply rooted in the people of those countries. The fall of communism in the 90's and onward proved how weak the revolutions were in these countries being totally reliant on the USSR and China for support. A revolutionary movement that relay's on foreign powers for support and not their people is dangerous as it's weakness and lack of organizing every facet of society was exposed upon the USSR's collapse. Marxism Leninism faltering is the direct fault of the Communist Party of The Soviet Union for allowing the country to be destroyed leaving people in abject misery and gangster-ism not to mention the wars and conflicts that continue to this day due to it. I agree Hamas is popular because of the support it has gotten from it's inception from Qatar and Egypt and now Iran obviously however conditions have changed from the times of the PLO the resistance has gotten stronger (Example: The tunnel system and the ability to destroy Zionist heavy armor with new RPG shells and increased manufacturing ability within the Gaza strip) while the Zionist entity has clearly degraded from it's heights of military prowess for many reasons which I wont start typing cause it would be alot. It is currently the job of the PFLP to join with Hamas and other factions to defeat the Zionists however after liberation that will change to making a affirmative stance that only socialism can lead Palestine forward and convincing the people. I do not know which country you come form but China has supported tons of revolutionary groups in Africa and the middle east they were not as powerful as the USSR was at the time so there support was less so based on the material reality of China at the time. China by it's very nature as a socialist state and the biggest manufacturing power in the world along with its population has always made it an enemy of the west of that the CPC has no illusions. China has been an inspiration because of it's achievements and it shows a path that other country's can take and are taking common prosperity as they call it. Do I wish that president Xi can snap his fingers and bring world communism sure but it is not a materialist view of the world which as Marxists we must take. I won't touch on the USSR not trusting China because they both did not trust each after the Sino-Soviet split in which many mistakes were made by both parties however both supported Vietnam to the hilt against the US and the south Vietnam puppet government. The border war launched by China on Vietnam was just another mistake in the larger context of Sino-soviet one. Should China provide more support to the Palestinian and other causes sure I would like to see it but we have been down this road before and to tread it again without examining both past failures and current conditions is foolhardy. China's current strategy is to appear the rational country against the irrationality and self destruction of the US empire. You can disagree with this strategy but China and the USSR sending arms to the PLO did not end Israel and exporting the revolution has for the most part been a failure. The question now is what is to be done? The communist's movement must move ahead and lead the proles in countries around to the world to their own victory instead of being a passive spectator and to say that there is no revolutionary potential in America and elsewhere is not just nihilistic but wrong. Waiting for a foreign power to save you is not just a bad look for the communist movement but any movement that wants to gain the trust and acceptance of the people. The Palestinian people will win themselves and with the help of the Axis of resistance we must win also everywhere.
Ussr did not fall because of its external policies but rather internal policies. Ussr's only anti imperialist failure was Palestine. The cruelty you see on Palestine would have been seen all over the world if ussr failed in more places. China will not gain trust or acceptance because their propaganda sucks/doesn't exist and saying "pls no" when people are genocided instead of sending arms to the victims doesn't seem to be winning hearts of the people. It is very unlikely for anyone to be communist in Yemen and If they are, it is in spite of a communist country whose policy is to ignore sufferings of people selling weapons to their starvation. And I can't see Palestinians "pulling theirselves up by their bootstraps". Israel has losses but they seem very sustainable given they are funded by USA. Egypt is preparing mass exodus. Israel is successfully starving the population. Fall of imperialist projects has everything to do with ussr funding its victims. It is quite unlikely for imperialism victims destroying imperialist actors without any funding when their enemy is funded to death
Ussr did not fall because of its external policies but rather internal policies.
It was both external pressure and internal contradictions.
Ussr's only anti imperialist failure was Palestine
This is not true but even if it was the fact they all fell after the USSR fell meant the revolution there was not built to last and the failures must be acknowledged if we are to correct our future approach.
China will not gain trust or acceptance because their propaganda sucks/doesn't exist and saying "pls no" when people are genocided instead of sending arms to the victims doesn't seem to be winning hearts of the people.
Aside from the fact the the resistance is already being supplied by the Axis of Resistance and the huge stockpile of weapons left to them by the USSR,China and other communist country's along with the new innovations of the resistance including the new Al-Yassin 105 rockets produced in Gaza that is destroying Merkava tanks and their own ability to produce sniper rifles (Ghoul) and ammunition for their AK's. The resistance has prepared a long time for October 7th and the massacres against civilians does not take away their military achievements. China's propaganda is as it has been for a long time now emphasizing that the US is the threat to international law and world order and offers an alternative based on mutual prosperity through their economic programs (Belt and Road) improving the material conditions of former colonized countries allowing them to take steps independent of their formal colonial masters. You can disagree with this approach and wish they would do more I would like them too as well however this was a path decided upon because of the fall of the USSR and failure of exporting the revolution to other countries.
It is very unlikely for anyone to be communist in Yemen and If they are, it is in spite of a communist country whose policy is to ignore sufferings of people selling weapons to their starvation. And I can't see Palestinians "pulling their selves up by their bootstraps"
Yemen has a communist history( Peoples Democratic Republic of South Yemen) itself mired by achievements and failures some of which can be directly contributed to the USSR which was it's main backer. The communists that remained in Yemen after Ali Abdullah Saleh purged them ended up supporting AnsarAllah while others fled to Riyadh and work now for the coalition against Yemen (which is reprehensible). If there is any spite against communism in Yemen it is due to the failure of the Yemeni Socialist Party to manage it's internal contractions which led to it being defeated after the fall of the USSR and those that now sully the name of socialism by supporting the Gulf/US genocidal war on Yemen.
And I can't see Palestinians "pulling their selves up by their bootstraps". Israel has losses but they seem very sustainable given they are funded by USA. Egypt is preparing mass exodus. Israel is successfully starving the population.
The Palestinians are not helpless little victims they are fighting tooth and nail dealing grievous losses to Zionist soldiers every day while Israel in return can only massacre civilians the resistance by all a credible accounts are still in good health while Hezbollah has been terrorizing Israel in the North every day since Oct 8th and anger and resistance operations are ever increasing in the West Bank. Loses are not sustainable because of the psychological effects and plummeting morale of Zionists troops and also the fact that the US must support it's other proxies with weapons most notably Ukraine which has sucked up tons of the US and other Western powers military equipment the US is not depleted but it's supply is not endless. The resistance has adapted to this style of aerial warfare evidenced by it's tunnel system which majorly negates the power of the Zionist Air Force. Even with economic assistance from the US the blockade and the War is still causing the Israel economy to scream no matter how much they try to hid it. As to Egypt it is still just conjecture (they are preparing a new security border zone from the looks of it) however if true would undoubtedly cause a harsh reaction not just from the Palestinians who say they will refuse to be subject to another displacement but among the people of Egypt as well. Sisi is not exactly a beloved figure in Egypt and perhaps doing this will lead to his ousting in another free officers coup... I do not know how likely it is but I think it is best not to understate that the people of Egypt are with Palestine if not the rulers. Israel is starving the population it is true however it is not yet successful. The siege of Leningrad lasted 872 days we are on day 145 I believe in Gaza. The Soviets were the victors of that siege in the end despite how horrific it was. It is not a one to one comparison obviously but it is too early to say if this starving will bring Gaza to it's knees despite it's obviously disgusting effects on the people.
Fall of imperialist projects has everything to do with ussr funding its victims. It is quite unlikely for imperialism victims destroying imperialist actors without any funding when their enemy is funded to death
Imperial projects have been brought down by it's own people many times before most notably in the October Revolution where the Russian Empire was destroyed for good by it's own people. And Gaza you forget is not alone Iran,Yemen,Syria,Iraq,Lebanon stand behind them especially the military support of Hezbollah in Lebanon and AnsarAllah in Yemen with Weapons and economic assistance provided from Iran. The axis of resistance is a real thing and it stands squarely with Palestine and against the US throughout the region. Palestine is not fighting alone.
The Ukraine war will probably end up being more devastating than Iraq when all is said and done
If it helps, this won't be true in all likelihood. Part of the terror of the Iraq war was the annihilation of infrastructure, whereas my understanding is that that's been specifically avoided by the RF.
If it helps, this won't be true in all likelihood. Part of the terror of the Iraq war was the annihilation of infrastructure, whereas my understanding is that that's been specifically avoided by the RF.
There's some truth to that, but I don't think we can really say Iraq was worse, looking back.
Iraq in 2005 was less devastated than Iraq in 2011, or Iraq in 2017. Regarding destroyed and maimed human lives, Ukraine may already be worse than Iraq 2005, that's two years into the forever war. Europe's economy cratering and Europe going full fascist might just be around the corner, there's your regional blowback. ISIS expanding to Syria took 10 years, who knows what we are going to see in the coming years.
So Biden is a more qualified president than Bush?
Idk if it helps but it’s always been shitty somewhere. We just live in the time of smartphones.