Exponential increases in high-temperature extremes in North America - Scientific Reports
Exponential increases in high-temperature extremes in North America - Scientific Reports
Global warming in the 21st century will alter the frequency of extreme climatic events, such as high-temperature anomalies and “heat waves”. Observations of extreme high temperatures during recent decades have detected upward trends in their frequency of occurrence, and recent state-of-the-art Globa...
Conclusions
Projections of increasing global surface temperature lead to significant transformations in the behavior of high-temperature extremes. Trends in global and local temperatures will transform present-day “once-in-a-lifetime” high-temperature events into frequent (e.g., annual) occurrences in the next several decades. We show that projected temperature trends will exponentially increase the odds of exceeding the 50-year extreme high-temperature events across North America (U.S., Canada, and Mexico) with a doubling time scale of approximately 13–17 years. This doubling time scale is equivalent to a doubling temperature scale of 0.5–1 C rise in the local surface temperatures. With the increased frequency of extreme high-temperature events, we expect a corresponding acceleration of many temperature-related public health concerns (see, e.g., ref.68). Although it is likely that society has yet to fully comprehend the consequences of global temperature rise, we offer that the information provided here can aid in the development of prevention and mitigation plans at regional and global scales.
Feedback loops doing what feedback loops do...
Welp... guess I'm moving to the great lakes.
"Its just El Nino, idiot"
you can expect similar with crop yields and other weather thats powered by these extremes.
this is what will deplete the global yearly carryover grain stocks when we get more clusters of back to back bad years
If this turns out to be an extra-hot summer as the long term models are showing, and also droughty, then that will make 4 summers in a row (in my area, which is agrarian) of bad years. It will not take long to seriously damage food supplies at the rate this is going. I haven't looked into what conditions have been like in the other breadbasket areas like the Ukraine/S. Russia, the Cone of South America, or the fertile parts of East/South Asia.