Bulletins and News Discussion from March 11th to March 17th, 2024 - It's Eurover - COTW: Portugal
Bulletins and News Discussion from March 11th to March 17th, 2024 - It's Eurover - COTW: Portugal
This year really is just gonna be us swinging from election to election, I suppose. I feel Lenin's beaming red eyes on me.
Up next on our electoral tour is Portugal. The current government - a coalition of the center-left Socialists and the center-right Social Democrats - has been mired in corruption scandals, resulting in a general election being called a mere two years after the last one. The fascist and vaguely populist Chega party has gained significant support over the last two years due to the economic hardships. Yesterday, the Social Democrats secured a narrow win of 79 seats compared to the Socialists' 77. Chega, in third place at 48, would appear to be the best candidate for a coalition, though the leader of the Social Democrats has said that they would refuse a coalition with them due to their xenophobic views. Regardless, the fascist surge is worrying, if expected.
Portugal's economy is going pretty badly even as European countries go, with little growth in productivity or investment over the last decade. The origins of this crisis date back to Portugal making the euro their national currency in the early 2000s, thus surrendering their ability to control their own currency, becoming reliant on investment from Germany and France, and suffering greatly in the 2012 European debt crisis. Unemployment and low wages spurred emigration; in 2013, the youth employment rate was about 40%; this has only come down to 25% recently and is increasing again. The government is heavily reliant on debt for public spending, with a debt-to-GDP ratio skyrocketing to over 100% in the two decades since the turn of the millennium. The capitalist sector is simply not profitable enough and hasn't been for 40 years, which is only a problem if you are a capitalist economy. For more on the Portuguese economy, check out Michael Roberts' recent analysis, from which I obtained a lot of this information.
Inside Portugal is the same story playing out across much of Europe. A failing center or center-left political party, unable to cope with the economic troubles of the last few years due to absolute obedience to neoliberal policies. A fascist party rising, but with no alternative economic plan, hoping that perhaps oppressing minorities and going after "wokeism" will make their God, The Economy, rain blessings down on them again.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Portugal! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
The bulletins site is here!
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Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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Thoughts?
US building Gaza port to facilitate mass 'voluntary' migration
Article text
Hisham Khreisat, a Jordanian military and strategic affairs expert, suggested the motivation for building the port was instead to facilitate the deportation of Gaza's population by ship.
Khreisat told Anadolu Agency that "the floating port off the shores of Gaza is a humanitarian facade hiding voluntary migration to Europe."
"This military tactical port will receive Israeli approval because Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been seeking this idea since the beginning of the war, aiming for the voluntary displacement of Gazans and their [flight] to Europe," he added.
The White House claims it wishes to build the port to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza as hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are at risk of starvation due to Israel's blockade.
But the BBC noted that the port would take at least 60 days to build and that "charities have said those suffering in Gaza cannot wait that long."
If the US wished to stave off famine in Gaza, it could simply use its leverage as Israel's leading supplier of weapons to force Tel Aviv to allow more aid to enter by truck convoys through existing land crossings.
On 13 October, just days after the beginning of the war on Gaza, the Israeli Ministry of Intelligence issued a document calling for the forcible expulsion of the strip's 2.3 million inhabitants under a humanitarian guise.
The leaked document recommends making conditions in Gaza so uninhabitable that its population would be forced to flee to other countries, including Egypt's Sinai, Greece, Spain, and Canada.
Israel could justify the deportation to the international community, the plan stated, if it appears to lead to "fewer casualties among the civilian population compared to the expected number of casualties if they remain," the document says.
Israel's horrific bombardment of Gaza since 7 October has created just such conditions, killing at least 30,000 Palestinians, the majority women and children.
The risk of famine, caused by Israel's blockade, has also created conditions to make the deportation of 2.3 million Gazans appear as a humanitarian gesture.
These conditions could further be created should Israel conduct a ground operation in Rafah, where over a million Gazans displaced from other areas of the strip are sheltering.
Egypt has so far refused to allow Gazans into the Sinai, making deportation by sea to Europe more attractive for Israeli planners.
The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) also issued a warning about the US plan to build a temporary port off the shore of Gaza.
The resistance movement emphasized that the US plan is "suspicious and dubious," as it would open the door to the forced displacement of Gaza's population under humanitarian and other pretexts.
The movement also accused President Joe Biden of establishing the port to appease public opinion in the US. As the presidential election nears, large segments of his Democratic voter base have criticized Biden for his support for Israel's ongoing Genocide in Gaza, including the lack of aid reaching starving Palestinians.
The PFLP statement added that the Palestinian Resistance will remain vigilant and will confront any "suspicious US plans or any other actions that might compel Palestinians to be expelled to liquidate the Palestinian cause."
The statement further confirmed that the US presence would be a legitimate target for the Resistance.
apperently its gonna be guarded by PMC Units
Including all our old favourites like Blackwater
It's certainly plausible, because the pier right now is basically just a publicity stunt. The Army Corps of Engineers ship that is going to set it up travels at like 12 knots (~15 mph) fully loaded and it's going to be another couple weeks before it even gets to Gaza. Plus there is no way to even set up a temporary pier big enough to get the amount of aid necessary in.
The fact they could just use trucks instead of a port makes me think the elaborate nature of the project is busy work that makes them look like they’re working very hard to deliver aid while not delivering any aid at all.
Same with the air drops. What a pointless (and pointlessly dangerous) way of delivering a small amount of aid to a place with a land border with Israel and Egypt. A flashy / showing / elaborate nothing burger.
It’s the equivalent of highlighting cells in excel and entering formulas at random to make it look like you’re doing work at 3pm.
Richard medhurst had a video saying it might be used to get oil and gas out of Gaza? I didn’t watch it so idk but Gaza does have oil or gas reserves under it
I don't see it. I'm sure the Israelis want to steal any oil & gas they can get their hands on, I just don't think it will happen through this pier.
Gaza's oil and gas fields are mostly offshore and there's a little bit in the north. It makes more logistical and security sense for the Israelis to export any oil out of Gaza by sea pipline or truck and put it onto ships at their existing terminals in Ashkelon and Ashdod.
The types of temporary floating pier they are building in Gaza isn't really capable of generating the money necessary to justify the security cost of protecting it:
You can really only use trucks on this to load ships. Trucks are definitely used, for instance in SDF-cotnrolled Syria, but the local communities are more-or-less onboard with those operations. Gaza would be a Dune scenario.
There's also the issue of ship draught (how deep the hull goes). You can't get a huge oil/gas ship in there without dredging, which they aren't going to be able to do. The other other option is running the pier really far offshore, but it's kinda dangerous to do that with this type of pier.
Good points. Also good name lmfao
This is just the first step, theyll run a pipeline out a ways for a proper terminal soon enough
100% this will be used for petroleum products, either offshore fields moving the product onshore to be processed, or processing new products from gaza fields
Guantanamo bay 2.0
"Voluntary"