ByteDance would rather shut down tiktok than sell it

The big difference here is that if your competition can out-compete you using Chinese infrastructure, you will be forced into at least figuring out a way to dual-use it.

Ultimately, this is a Microsoft/Apple situation. It's just who will be Microsoft and who will be Apple. I think that, over time, most of the cutting edge tech will migrate over to Chinese tech, even if the rest of the world doesn't exactly. That said, Africa and Asia (outside of the colonial outposts) will mostly be in the Chinese tech sphere.

Unfortunately, trade protectionism can work pretty well.

For consumers yes people are locked into google or apple ecosystems, but for large scale businesses often they either have their own infrastructure or they do multicloud. Sometimes they even use different vendor mixes per region because there may be local providers who can compete locally with the big boys. What I think would stop large businesses from using Chinese vendors is the US government saying they are not allowed to use Chinese vendors. Their lawyers at that point will simply not allow them to buy Huawei equipment or use Tencent cloud. I dont think these shell games are strictly necessary when it comes to companies doing business in the US. Politically though it may be problematic for them to do that right now.

why do you type like kaplya