Bulletins and News Discussion from May 13th to May 19th, 2024 - The Blazing Furnace - COTW: Vietnam
Bulletins and News Discussion from May 13th to May 19th, 2024 - The Blazing Furnace - COTW: Vietnam
An image of a Central Committee meeting in Hanoi. Image taken from this article.
General Secretary Nguyễn Phú Trọng implemented an anti-corruption campaign in 2016 called "blazing furnace" in shorthand. Since then, the fire has ripped through both politicians and businesses, up to even the Presidency. Nearly 200,000 party members, 36 Central Committee members, and 50 police/military generals have been disciplined since the initiative began. In 2018, Dinh La Thang, the former party chief of Ho Chi Minh City, became the first sitting Politburo member to be criminally charged, and was sentenced to 30 years in prison. In 2023, President Nguyễn Xuân Phúc was implicated in a corruption scandal and resigned. He was replaced by Võ Văn Thưởng, who was then also caught in a corruption scandal a year later in March 2024, making him the shortest serving President in Vietnamese history. The Presidency is current headed by Võ Thị Ánh Xuân while they find a new President; she also took that role in 2023.
The ousted leaders tend to also be part of the more West-friendly, technocratic faction inside Vietnam, either reflecting how these people also tend to be more easily corrupted, or how the Communist Party is slowly moving away from a foreign policy which allies itself with the West (as Vietnam has comprehensive strategic partnerships with several Western countries), or some combination. Of course, this shouldn't be overstated - Vietnam has maintained a close friendship with China for years, and both incumbent leaders are intimately familiar with anti-corruption campaigns and how and why they must be conducted in order to deliver maximum public benefit.
America clearly desires Vietnam to pick their side, because America strongly desires another vassal state in East Asia like the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan to further encircle and isolate China. And so the headlines and commentary of Western state propaganda like Radio Free Asia, the BBC, WaPo, Business Insider, etc reveal their increasing annoyance with Vietnam's government. They often couch this in the standard "objective" economics language); about how removing leaders who foreign investors were reassured by might mean economic pain for Vietnam ahead. As Bhadrakumar noted in 2023, perhaps the BBC revealed their intentions the best:
Reading Vietnamese politics is always difficult — the Communist Party makes its decisions behind closed doors. But hard-line General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, who was given an unprecedented third term at last year’s party congress, appears to be consolidating his authority by ousting senior officials seen as more pro-Western and pro-business. Officially this is all happening in the name of fighting corruption,.. but it’s indicative of a power struggle at the top of the party… the likely rise now of more security-focused officials to the top of the party will be bad news.
Even a quick google search right now will show a bunch of articles by clearly nervous Westerners: Why Vietnam’s Escalating Anti-Corruption Campaign Might Backfire because, as we all know, only authoritarian regimes are vulnerable to things like public opinion and discontent, while Western "democracies" are insulated from such petty phenomena. Leaders here can have disapproval ratings of 60-70% and not even the slightest consequence will happen to them - a real sign of democratic freedom and justice over those primitive regimes in the East! Or, take: ‘Blazing Furnace’ Turns Vietnam Into Another Chinese Province; China turning both Russia and Vietnam into their provinces in just two years was a real diplomatic masterclass. Or, back in 2022: Vietnam's 'blazing furnace' crackdown burns $40 bln off stocks. Not the stocks! Anything but the stocks!
If your actions as a leader are pissing off Bloomberg, you are going in the right direction.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Vietnam! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
You're viewing a single thread.
Putin confirms that there are currently no plans to capture Kharkiv city, which reinforces the buffer zone theory. "Nothing ever happens" gang stays winning.
Permanently Deleted
It's a race between demilitarizing NATO and literally every able bodied man in Ukraine dying in some fucking trench. Is there a third option? Maybe the political collapse of Ukraine?
So if a city as big as Kharkiv in one country is captured by another country, how do things like keep functioning in that city? People just continue going to work? Do the local police just start working for the occupying force? If unionized workforces were like no we’re not going to work in these conditions would the occupying force just arrest them or something?
Permanently Deleted
Most people are still waking up and going to work like normal. At least that’s what I saw from interviews during the initial stages of the invasion.
I think it's pretty normal for the occupiers to order everyone to come to work to keep things running, then gradually switch over currency and legal systems and what have you.
Meanwhile, Maskirovka gang:
CALLED IT! Fuckin "buffer zone" that dumb fuck Putin really does want to make the big Russian offensive into an October "surprise", yeah just sacriface the late spring/summer opening because you want to play political games with DC, this dumb war is gonna last another year cause Putin wants to hand the west a runway the distance from Kiev to DC, once a loyal puppet always a loyal puppet
Current fighting mostly consists of Ukrainians standing around and getting blown up by artillery and drones.
Capturing land does basically nothing to change the outcome of the war, which has become an attritional conflict.
Carrying out offensives is a lot of risk for little reward in this sort of warfare.
I mean a force of 50 000 is not enough to capture a city as large as Kharkiv, and maintain control of the territory captured in the north. The plan from the beginning was always a buffer zone to prevent Russian cities close to the border like Belgorod being shelled. It has nothing to do with recent western meetings or intervention. A much larger force from the beginning would have needed to be committed to make large gains in the north.
Defeatist nonsense
A defeatist take would involve claiming Russia CAN'T win, I'm saying they DON'T WANT TO win because there's a faction in the government that wants to reintegrate with the west, and since Putin has been the face of that faction for the last thirty years he gets the blame
The dumbass probably thinks he could cool things down if Trump is in office, so he wants to put off the Russian offensive until the fall and mess with Biden's chances, despite all the rhetoric I believe Putin just wants the 2022 peace deal to finally go thru, the idea this neollib weakling is gonna march past the Dnieper strikes me as cope of the highest order, this isn't 2022 the Russians have the numbers and equipment to win this war in under a season, the longer they don't the more plausible my theory becomes that the neolib faction in Moscow just wants a peace deal that doesn't scare DC
No, claiming a side doesn’t want to win is the most common form of defeatism. The “we would have won if not for the politicians” is the bitter whinge of losers.
Russia will not capitulate to the west and will never be able to amend relations. Putin has fully embraced the alliance with China, shown by him taking his entire government with him and hugging Xi immediately after landing. Nothing will shatter this friendship because both know they cannot stand alone against the existential threat of the west.
February 2022 was the burning of the last boats that could travel west. That path is forever gone.
No, claiming a side doesn’t want to win is the most common form of defeatism. The “we would have won if not for the politicians” is the bitter whinge of losers.
Then in that case I look forward to Russia winning the war THIS YEAR and for the FALL OF THE KIEV REGIME
Nothing will shatter this friendship because both know they cannot stand alone against the existential threat of the west.
Do they know that, do they REALLY know all that? Or do they believe the calculus will shift when a different US president comes in?
What makes you think Putin believes Trump will be any different? He may be more nominally pro-Russia, but he doesn’t control every facet of government. Look at his previous 4 years. He’ll talk mad shit about the US’ enemies then when shit hits the fan, he just repeats typical security state lines. The agenda doesn’t change. It never has. And even if it does, it'll revert once a more traditional government takes over after Trump. If we’re being generous, the only thing Putin has going for him is that republicans care about china more than Russia which gives him some breathing room.
A journalist kept bugging Assad about his thoughts on Trump and he kept repeating that he doesn’t care because the American agenda remains the same whether a clown or no-nonsense politician is president.
I can’t comment much on Putin’s inner circle, but I highly doubt he believes Trump will be of much benefit aside from stirring the US from the inside.
A journalist kept bugging Assad about his thoughts on Trump and he kept repeating that he doesn’t care because the American agenda remains the same whether a clown or no-nonsense politician is president.
Didn't Putin also say the same thing, almost word for word, in the
Putin interview? It's possible I'm remembering wrong, but I thought that was his answer after Tucker the chicken fucker kept pestering Putin for an answer on Trump.Permanently Deleted
Permanently Deleted
The reality of Russian policy under Trump doesn't matter, what matters is Putin's perception of the state of US politics, and listening to any of his speeches it's clear he's not a particularly intelligent or canny individual, after all it took him decades to figure out the game the US was playing on Russia, he's a neolib thru and thru who's gotten moderately more nationalistic the last two years by sheer social osmosis from the rest of the country, god knows what he really believes deep down
He sees US politics thru a liberal prism modulated by sources that inflate and exaggerate Trump's pro-Russianness, to the point I believe it seriously effects Putin's thinking or lack thereof
Why does the victory have to be THIS YEAR? Who are you to make these arbitrary demands? Fickle westoid
Putin fought and killed American proxies in Syria under Obama, Trump and Biden. This goes against your “Putin is a stupid guy who will love Trump” narrative.
We have already seen Trump’s proposed “peace plan” for the Russo-Ukraine conflict and it’s literally identical to Biden’s with 0 concessions to Russia. Putin won’t just accept 0 concessions because it comes from a wet guy instead of a dry one
I think Putin should win this year because the west is very clearly escalating with a strategy of only doubling down. The west isn’t able to provide ordnance as of right now, but if the war lasts another few years that might not be the case. Russia has already put in the time and resources to mobilize thousands of men, why not use it? Also from what I understand finishing the conflict by the fall was what Russian officials were aiming for if I’m not mistaken. Why the sudden change?
Why does the victory have to be THIS YEAR?
Do you believe the people of eastern Ukraine want another year of war if it can be avoided, you're seriously losing the plot here
All objectives of the SMO will be completed. Z
putins weakling and appesment instincts are truly problematic , i would wager that even a yeltsin or gorbi would have fixed this hole donbass thing in 2014..
This is a wildly nonsensical take. Putin’s Russia was the first and only nation to stand up to US hegemony with military violence and win outside their own borders. They are the world leaders in anti-imperialism, more principled in this regard than China. Yeltsin and Gorbi would have bent the knee and taken the bribes, they were subservient cucks.
There’s a reason the entire global south sees Putin as the leader of this multipolar transition, and it’s not because Putin is weak and an appeaser. In fact, the opposite. Maybe from comfy Germany this is lost but this is an extremely idealist and chauvinist take
yeah thats also right ... maybe the fucking Cuck knows stuff better then me (doubt. ) , but this hole ukraine shit could maybe have been a distant "South Ossetia" memory if he would have done it earlier..
Putin should have done what Putin did...
"I can excuse the Shelling of the Millions of Russians in Donestsk and Luhansk for many years but i draw the Line at Tskhinvali !"
“He should have just won instantly when his country wasn’t prepared for western sanctions” - the westerner idealist
I have also expressed frustration before, but you are just not being realistic and are attacking the figure who is the most aggressive against the US in their actions on Earth. If he is too weak and appeasing, what are the rest of the world leaders? What is Xi Jinping? What is Diaz-Canel? Both suck up to America far more than Putin does.
You still think taking cities is how you win a war? If nobody is left to fight you win all the cities. Russia's plan is to kill everyone who is willing to fight them.
Why do you think everyone was mad at prigo? He was trying to capture a city when the rest of the military wanted him to kill ukrops. This was their beef.
A Reddit link was detected in your comment. Here are links to the same location on alternative frontends that protect your privacy.