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Humans are bad at probability. A true 25% chance doesn't feel like what you think a 25% chance is.
If you have a different perception of a 25% chance based on whether the outcome is positive or negative, that's pretty normal. Humans are subjective.
But games often lie about percentages to make them feel more right. A 95% chance to hit in fallout or xcom has a much higher than 95% chance in reality. Could be some probability fudging in this case in balatro too, would have to do statistics to be sure.
Idk, I think Balatro is bad at probability. I was able to get a 2 in 2 chance that a card would proc and it stopped proccing.