On the other hand, if he does lose this election, it will be entirely from the Democrats own fucking hubris. They were the ones who made up this idea that "only Biden could beat Trump." They're the ones stubbornly turning a blind eye to the atrocities in Israel, and discrediting the campus protests to divest from Israel. I don't want to hear a goddamn word about how it's "the voters fault" like we heard in 2016. If the Democratic party genuinely wants to keep focusing their efforts on losing elections, then they deserve all the blame if they're not able to beat a convicted felon.
He doesn't have an incumbency advantage. He very narrowly beat Trump in 2020 and has dropped in polling ever since. If anything, had the Dems run someone different, they could have done a big show of the graceful transition of power as a reminder of January 6th. Hindsight's also 20/20, but it would've allowed Dems to have their cake and eat it to on Israel, since I don't know if Palestine will last to November at the current rate.