Yes even if it was just Ukraine doing it and yes even if they used entirely their own homegrown tools to do it.
Everything about Russia's geopolitical strategy is about either strengthening or defending Moscow (just look at a map of major transit ways in the region).
Literally any direct attack on that city would be seen as an instant validation of every most paranoid delusion of the aims of this war, and Moscow would be as close to turning the keys as it has ever gotten.
A nuclear strike takes many skilled people, working together to make it happen. It's not just a guy or two with keys and guns, like in the movies. Those skilled people must have suicidal convictions and the willingness to die, horribly and anonymously. Who in Russia has the power to convince others to do that? No one, because like so many of so many other nations, the love of luxury, power and money is far preferable to death. You seem to be fantasizing about nuclear weapons in the hands of bold and merciless super men who some how survived the Cold War and have no fear. There are none.