I've never seen a thing like this before, both players were ruled to have lifted simultaneously, both contributing equally to the foul play and both were given a yellow. Somehow the Magpies only managed to score 1 try while against 13 players and almost conceded one too.
Sam Smith, the Hawke's Bay 7 being lifted here tucked his head & rolled so actually came down quite safely all things considered and played out the rest of the match A-OK.
Yeah first phase Australia looked much better, and they were also more patient were able to build phases and still look like they had a plan going deep into them. After 5 or 6 phases the ABs attack fairly consistently fell apart and looked like it didn't really have a successful out.
Pretty consistently through this year though its the out wide defence and then lack of punch on gain line that's the worry heading up north. Defence in particular has gone backwards this year, the system looks very exploitable.
Still think Razor was a bit slow on pulling the trigger on getting the bench on, but the forwards replacements in particular did really well once they were on.
The question from the game is, has Schmidt coached a bunch of lesser players to perform well above their #10 ranking, or are Razor's ABs just that clunky at the moment?
As I type, the ABs have only 18 minutes to build a lead before the final quarter begins and we get to see if they'll be shut out 6 games in a row.
Well I didn't expect my prediction for the Magpies to be bang on. Crazy game.
First time I've ever seen two players get sinbinned a simultaneous action of foul play.
Table: |Pos.|Team|P|W|B|PTS| |-|-|-|-|-|-| |1|Wellington|8|7|7|35| |2|Tasman|7|7|4|32| |3|Taranaki|8|6|6|30| |4|BoP|8|5|8|28| |5|Hawke's Bay|8|5|7|27| |6|Canterbury|8|5|5|25| |7|Waikato|8|4|7|23| |8|Counties-Manukau|8|3|6|18| |9|North Harbour|8|2|10|18| |10|Auckland|7|3|5|17| |11|Otago|8|3|4|16| |12|Northland|8|2|5|13| |13|Southland|8|2|4|12| |14|Manawatū|8|1|3|7|
Fixtures: 27/09:
- Counties-Manukau v Wellington
28/09:
- BoP v Northland
- Hawke's Bay v Auckland
- Otago v Tasman
29/09:
- North Harbour v Canterbury
- Southland v Waikato
- Taranaki v Manawatū
2/10:
- Tasman v Auckland
Predictions:
- Wellington 15+
- BoP 21+
- Hawke's Bay 1-1
- Tasman 12+
- North Harbour 6-
- Waikato 12+
- Taranaki 50+
1 - I don't know if Folau Fakatava is back from injury yet or not; he's been out the last two games and without him as a 2nd playmaker my Magpies have been dreadful. No ability to relieve pressure means two massive hidings in a row. This is a prediction from the heart, not the head :)
Notes:
Its now the second to last round, and mathematically probably only Manawatū are definitively outside of the top 8, but I think we can assume that Northland and Southland are also no chance given at best they can only be expecting to win 1/2.
Otago are also only likely to win 1 more match so there's the 4 wooden spooners confirmed and we only need to pick two more teams to stay or slip out of the top 8.
Auckland have had a terrible season, but have 3 games in hand, so could pick up another 15 points, except they are playing Hawke's Bay, Tasman & BoP so are only likely to win 1, they should finish somewhere around 24 points.
North Harbour could beat Canterbury, and should beat Southland so are potentially looking at a points upside of 6-10 points, but Counties-Manukau have a guaranteed win against Manawatū so for Harbour to make it they really need to push for a win against the Rams.
Waikato should pick up another 4-5 points against Southland, even if they lose to Canterbury the following week so are probably safe.
So, weirdly the two other teams that are at some risk are Hawke's Bay & Canterbury, purely because neither of their next two games are guaranteed wins. The Rams are probably more likely to get a win given the Magpies woeful form since losing the Shield, but i'd say both of them are likely safe - even if the 'pies get the job done with bonus points rather than wins.
As for the top of the table, well with a game in hand, the high spending Tasman Makos are most likely to take 1st place again, followed by Wellington. Taranaki & BoP will both get wins this round, so if Auckland continue to suck and Tasman continue to be good, BoP will secure 3rd in the final game of the round-robin ahead of the playoffs.
I was so impressed with the quality of the Bronco that I bought one of their Rambler's as well. I use that when I just want to grill a couple of steaks for dinner, but my partner also bought be one of the Espeto Sul rotisseries, and I use that with the Rambler as its just about the perfect length for it. I got my brother to fabricate a baffle which lets me hold the lid open, but still keep the box closed for proper air draw & whatnot - its been great for chicken roasts!
I'm quite keen on their offset smokers too, but part of the deal with buying the Bronco was I had to get rid of one of my other BBQs (sold an old Weber Kettle) so I doubt i'll get the thumbs up to add another even bigger one to our collection!
Naturally, and with this government we're not going to get Aussie style protections around work hours any time soon - but if your employer is going to say, you must be in office bc contract says so, the response should be ok well contract also says work hours are x-y thank you very much.
I meant to post this earlier - its an explainer on how West Kentucky ended up with Mutton BBQ and you'll see why I was instantly hooked that it was something New Zealand should be doing too.
https://www.foodrepublic.com/2012/03/13/a-year-of-barbecue-kentucky-mutton/
I tend to wrap ribs pretty early in butcher paper (my butcher wraps everything, even if its in a vac bag in butcher paper so I get a supply without trying :) and that really helps to keep them moist. I do the same for bigger chunks of meat to get through the stall as well.
Yeah I was using HA to figure out presence from Unifi and that was very flakey as well. Have a look at Unpoller though, its a decent project and can push metrics to influxdb or prometheus.
Its only recent releases of Unifi Network that have made it easy to setup local DNS entries - it used to be very kludgy or not possible back when I first deployed PiHole as DNS for me.
I really like the frigate project, and the detection models it has are really really good, and that meant I could use really cheap Amcrest (I think) cameras because the brains was on the server end rather than camera end. Plus I kinda prefer the device side to be as dumb as possible as they can often have all sorts of vulnerabilities baked in the more IoT they are.
Though I also really hate Home Assistant so I use Frigate as a standalone app, and I manage notifications in a somewhat roundabout way (mqtt -> loki -> grafana -> pushover). I did that because I got heartily sick of how awful Home Assistant was at determining whether I was, or was not at home.
So now I use Unpoller to get my device states from the UDM, that gets stored in prometheus, and my Grafana alert rule works out if my partner or I are at home based on our device being connected to the WiFi or not; then each MQTT event for a detection it only sends a notification if both phones are away.
Note the privacy risks were low, not no. So even this limited, safe trial has privacy risk which has been exposed to an AI processing & storing data where?
This is just Nactional Fist's latest culture war bullshit; a distraction from the absolute shambles they've made of the economy since dropping an austerity bomb on a recession.
Actually on cameras, I think Ubiquiti are adding Onvif support to Protect which should let you add non-Ubiquiti cameras to their setup too. Of course then you won't get the special detection features so i'll continue to use frigate & offload the "is human?" analysis to a GPU.
I've had my Bronco for a few years now and it is so good to use. Have done briskets, pork shoulders, ribs, chickens so far everything's been delicious.
Early on a cold morning it can be a little tricky to get the chimney drawing air well - so one trick i've recently learnt is to switch my vacuum pipe to the blow side and to force air into the inlet which seems to get it cranking pretty quickly :)
Oh, and as you mention Lamb, you really should treat yourself and try some West Kentucky style Mutton BBQ. It can be hard to get actual mutton, but it works with hogget too, its delicious and makes too much sense for NZ BBQ to not start adopting it!
It begins! Here's a mug of kool-aid ;) So, who's taking odds on TTC and TTA*?
There's a legitimate criticisms to be made of Ubiquiti's products, but they perform very well, are relatively simple to setup and maintain and most importantly for me, you get a perpetual license in the up front purchase price - no annual ransomware like other similar providers. Plus you can host the controller yourself, you don't have to be tied to their cloud offering (if they even still bother with it).
I haven't setup their built-in ad blocking yet as the local DNS was a bit of a pain so I still use pi-hole for all my own home stuff's DNS anyway, and I have wireguard running off their box as I set that up when their implementation was very new and not quite what I was after. But only a matter of time before I switch to the same setup as yours.
*(time till cameras, time till access-points)!
I saw something the other day in response to I think Amazon demanding workers work from office. If its so impossible to be productive working from home, then as soon as you walk out of the building at the end of the day, stop looking at your work phone, never reply to emails, don't answer the phone.*
*That's as it should be anyway, don't do free labour for your boss!
Re that last point about the ARU and their financial viability, here's an interesting counterpoint from NZ: https://archive.ph/nVtt6
Basically, the argument is that bc ARU couldn't get any vulture capital, they haven't made the same mistake as NZR and other professional unions so are getting to keep 100% of any revenue they make. NZR have to pay $20m annually to Silver Lake now - for basically doing nothing other than one lump sum that's going to be gone shortly.
So, unlike NZ - Australia doesn't need to try to chase every possible dollar, they just need to work for the most efficient dollars instead.
- All Blacks v Wallabies
- Argentina v South Africa
Big news ahead of Bledisloe 1 is that Beauden Barrett is out with illness which sees Jordan move to 15, Reece comes on at 14 with Harry Plumber being named on the reserve bench.
That suggests he’s leapt ahead of Havili as the utility player - and in a way it actually does make a lot of sense. Jordan, JB & McKenzie give 3 options at 15, Plumber gives cover at 10 & 12, and ALB gives 12 & 13 cover with the option of Ioane heading to the wing too. Very versatile backs.
Table: |Pos.|Team|P|W|B|PTS| |-|-|-|-|-|-| |1|Wellington|7|6|6|30| |2|Tasman|6|6|4|28| |3|BoP|7|5|7|27| |4|Hawke's Bay|7|5|7|27| |5|Waikato|7|4|6|22| |6|Taranaki|7|4|4|20| |7|Canterbury|7|4|4|20| |8|Counties-Manukau|7|3|5|17| |9|North Harbour|6|2|8|16| |10|Southland|7|2|4|12| |11|Otago|7|2|4|12| |12|Auckland|6|2|4|12| |13|Northland|7|1|4|8| |14|Manawatū|7|1|3|7|
Fixtures:
20/09
- Hawke's Bay v Taranaki
21/09
- Northland v North Harbour
- Canterbury v Counties-Manukau
- Wellington v BoP
22/09
- Waikato v Tasman
- Auckland v Southland
- Manawatū v Otago
25/09
- Taranaki v North Harbour
Predictions:
- Hawke's Bay 3+ (going with my heart on this one bc after last weekend, the head says its going to be a struggle)
- North Harbour 14+
- Canterbury 10+
- Wellington 4+
- Tasman 10+
- Auckland 10+
- Otago 5+
- Taranaki 10+
Notes: Including this weekend there are 3 rounds left until the quarter-finals, the current top 4 should make the top 8 though all of them would be hoping for at least 1 win from the next 3 matches. Especially with Tasman & Taranaki having a game in hand, the former should be eyeing up top of the table.
Of course, they're a very good team, and clearly well resourced given the talent they have signed up so anything outside of top 4 would have been a fail. I'd say the top 7 are probably going to make the playoffs and its really just about whether North Harbour or Counties-Manukau squeek in last place.
The new, cheaper scheme shifts costs from central government to schools – and risks damaging the very thing that makes the programme work.
Write up from my old mate Max Rashbrooke on the success of the school lunch program, and the likely impacts of the cuts to the program from the National-Act-NZ First government.
Table: |Pos.|Team|P|W|B|PTS| |-|-|-|-|-|-| |1|Wellington|6|6|6|30| |2|Hawke's Bay|6|5|7|27| |3|Tasman|5|5|3|23| |4|BoP|6|4|6|22| |5|Taranaki|5|4|4|20| |6|Waikato|6|3|5|17| |7|Canterbury|6|3|3|15| |8|Otago|6|2|4|12| |9|Counties-Manukau|6|2|4|12| |10|North Harbour|5|1|7|11| |11|Southland|5|2|7|11| |12|Auckland|5|1|3|7| |13|Northland|6|1|3|7| |14|Manawatū|5|0|2|2|
Fixtures:
13/09:
- Southland v Canterbury
14/09:
- BoP v Taranaki
- North Harbour v Manawatū
- Waikato v Hawke's Bay
15/09:
- Counties-Manukau v Otago
- Tasman v Wellington
- Northland v Auckland
18/09:
- Manawatū v Southland
Predictions: Canterbury 9- BoP 5+ North Harbour 25+ Hawke's Bay 5- Otago 5- Wellington 3+ Auckland 9- Southland 5-
Notes: Well, after the absolute tragedy that befell Hawke's Bay in their Shield defense against the Mako, i'm hoping Wellington will visit Nelson and at least ensure that Tasman only get to celebrate for a week.
That should be a hell of a game with all of the squad ABs being released to play for their provinces and Wellington have been very good so far this season.
Last weekend saw a lot of movement in the bottom half of the table - with lots of drama as well. See if you can find clip of wet-ball-gate from the Battle of the Bridge. Absolute dastardly shithousery robbed North Harbour.
There's plenty of other good matches ahead this weekend too - BoP v Taranaki should settle who's in 4th place, and the mid-week home game for the Turbos could be their only chance of picking up a win this season.
I'm glad the tests are over for this weekend, hopefully the rugby pundits down here will pay some attention to the NPC in their shows. But likely it'll get a passing mention while they spend 45 minutes talking up the Wobblies and then at the end of the season they'll have another moan about how nobody cares about the NPC.
Table: |Pos.|Team|P|W|B|PTS| |-|-|-|-|-|-| |1|Hawke's Bay|5|5|5|25| |2|Wellington|4|4|4|20| |3|Tasman|4|4|3|19| |4|BoP|5|3|5|17| |5|Waikato|5|3|4|16| |6|Taranaki|4|3|3|15| |7|Southland|4|2|2|10| |8|Otago|4|2|2|10| |9|Canterbury|5|2|2|10| |10|North Harbour|4|1|5|9| |11|Northland|5|1|3|7| |12|Counties-Manukau|5|1|3|7| |13|Auckland|4|0|2|2| |14|Manawatū|4|0|2|2|
Fixtures: Friday 06/09: BoP v Manawatū
Saturday 07/09: Auckland v North Harbour Wellington v Southland Otago v Canterbury Hawke's Bay v Tasman (Ranfurly Shield)
Sunday 08/09: Taranaki v Waikato Counties-Manukau v Northland
Wednesday 11/09: Otago v Wellington
Notes: The biggest game this round is the Ranfurly Shield match on Saturday night, Tasman have never one it as the combined union of Marlborough/Nelson Bays so they'll be up for it; and of course Hawke's Bay will be desperate to keep their winning record. Whoever wins gets both the log o' wood and top of the table.
Other than that, there's a couple of other usually fierce derbies. The Battle of the Bridge on Satuurday, then Otago v Canterbury. Most of the rest of the matches aren't especially exciting.
My Predictions: BoP 24+ North Harbour 9- Wellington 18+ Otago 3- Hawke's Bay 3- Taranaki 9+ Northland 9- Wellington 6+
What PM didn't mention when he outlined the dire state of maths performance in schools.
Unfortunately that's behind a paywall, but there's ways and means of reading it, eg via RSS subscription to NZ Herald.
A couple of notes for the benefit of those that can't read it. Two lecturers in maths education have pointed out that Luxon's claim that there is a crisis is misleading as the achievement data is "based on a new draft curriculum, with a higher benchmark compared to previous years."
ie, the standard for achievement is higher, not the level of maths knowledge declining suddenly. In fact "We’ve been tracking student achievement in mathematics at Year 8 for more than 10 years, and in that time, there has been no evidence for improvement or decline."
More alarmingly for me, a ministerial advisory group was setup which has recommended a new curriculum even while acknowledging there is a lack of evidence for teaching maths the way it proscribes.
That advisory group is chaired by an NZ Initiative idealogue, Dr Michael Johnston and the article almost infers he is basically pushing his own manifesto on how education should be conducted into the curriculum - again, despite evidence it has application to maths education.
For anyone that doesn't know, the NZ Initiative was formed by merging the Business Roundtable and the NZ Institute. They are far right neoliberal idealogues and you'll see people cycle through the organisation before going into political reporting or lobbying, or in Nicola Willis case being placed into political party roles.
Table: |Pos.|Team|P|W|B|PTS| |-|-|-|-|-|-| |1|Hawke's Bay|4|4|4|20| |2|BoP|4|3|5|17| |3|Wellington|3|3|3|15| |4|Tasman|3|3|2|14| |5|Taranaki|3|2|3|11| |6|Canterbury|4|2|2|10| |7|Otago|3|2|1|9| |8|North Harbour|3|1|3|7| |9|Waikato|3|1|2|6| |10|Southland|3|1|1|5| |11|Northland|3|1|1|5| |12|Auckland|3|0|2|2| |13|Counties-Manukau|4|0|2|2| |14|Manawatū|3|0|1|1|
Fixtures:
Friday 30/08:
- Northland v Southland
Saturday 31/08:
- North Harbour v Counties-Manukau
- Taranaki v Otago
- Waikato v Auckland
- Tasman v BoP
Sunday 01/09:
- Canterbury v Wellington
- Manawatū v Hawke's Bay
Wednesday 04/09:
- Waikato v Northland
My Predictions:
- Northland 9+
- North Habour 18+
- Taranaki 6+
- Waikato 9+
- Tasman 6+
- Wellington 9-
- Hawke's Bay 15+
- Northland 6-
1/3 of Round Robin Notes: With Round 3/9 complete now (the fixtures list I refer to has the playoffs as Rounds 10-12 which is a bit random) I figured i'd entertain myself by doing a bit of a stock-take of where we are at.
The defending champs Taranaki are progressing ok with their 1 loss so far coming away to one of the top 4 teams Wellington, are sitting ok, but the draw is a little unkind to them in that their easier games are mostly at home but they still have to play BoP, Tasman & Hawke's Bay on the road.
The comp progresses through quarter-finals, semis to the final so they'll make the playoffs but will need to work hard to get the home advantage they had last year.
The beaten finalists Hawke's Bay are looking quite good especially this week picking up a win away in Canterbury during the storm week. Time will tell though as its all tough games from now, even this Sunday's match against cellar dwellers Manawatū could be banana peel being the 3rd match in 9 days.
Probably the biggest surprise so far is how average Waikato, and how poor Auckland have been. You know you're having a bad season when Southland are ahead of you on the table.
The current top 5 look likely to make the playoffs, of the rest Canterbury will surely make it in though are battling a lot of injuries. The table feels a bit similar to Super Rugby this year. The top 4-5 are clear but places 6-12 are still probably anyone's to take and really only Manawatū & Counties-Manukau are looking completely out of the running.
Crowd wise - its the usual story. The over-saturated Super Rugby markets that struggled to get people to turn up unless it was a big game struggle to get people to show to the NPC. But the provinces that get one or no Super Rugby matches are having pretty good crowds in attendance from what i've seen so far.
The first match of the All Blacks vs Springboks series is on August 31.
This is my editorialising, but I struggle to see how its not yet more Crusaders bias selecting Bower over Numia.
I get that the latter is uncapped and coming off an injury but Numia was probably the form prop in Super Rugby this year and is going to be 3rd choice prop, not playing in either game unless there's an injury anyway.
Bower's only come back from even more serious injury this year and while he's had some tests under his belt i'd say there's just as many question marks over his international game with answers as unanswered questions about Numia.
Table: |Pos.|Team|P|W|B|PTS| |-|-|-|-|-|-| |1|BoP|3|3|3|15| |2|Hawke's Bay|2|2|2|10| |3|Wellington|2|2|2|10| |4|Tasman|2|2|1|9| |5|Taranaki|2|1|2|6| |6|Northland|2|1|1|5| |7|Canterbury|2|1|1|5| |8|Waikato|2|1|1|5| |9|Southland|2|1|0|4| |10|Otago|2|1|0|4| |11|North Harbour|2|0|2|2| |12|Counties-Manukau|3|0|2|2| |13|Auckland|2|0|1|1| |14|Manawatū|2|0|0|0|
Fixtures:
Friday 23/08:
- Hawke's Bay v Northland (Ranfurly Shield Challenge)
Saturday 24/08:
- Counties-Manukau v Tasman
- Auckland v Canterbury
- Southland v Taranaki
Sunday 25/08:
- Otago v BoP
- Wellington v Manawatū
- North Harbour v Waikato
Wednesday 28/08:
- Canterbury v Hawke's Bay
My Predictions:
- Hawkes-Bay 6+ (I'm on call this week so won't be at McLean Park :( )
- Tasman 18+
- Auckland 6-
- Taranaki 6+
- BoP 6+
- Wellington 27+
- North Harbour 6+
- Canterbury 10-
- Australia v South Africa in Perth
- New Zealand v Argentina in Auckland
Table: |Pos.|Team|P|W|B|PTS| |-|-|-|-|-|-| |1|BoP|2|2|2|10| |2|Tasman|1|1|1|5| |3|Taranaki|1|1|1|5| |4|Canterbury|1|1|1|5| |5|Hawke's Bay|1|1|1|5| |6|Wellington|1|1|1|5| |7|Southland|1|1|0|4| |8|North Harbour|1|0|1|1| |9|Counties-Manukau|2|0|1|1| |10|Auckland|1|0|0|0| |11|Otago|1|0|0|0| |12|Northland|1|0|0|0| |13|Waikato|1|0|0|0| |14|Manawatū|1|0|0|0|
Fixtures:
Friday 16/08:
- Otago v Auckland
Saturday 17/08:
- Northland v Manawatū
- Tasman v Canterbury
- Hawke's Bay v Southland (Ranfurly Shield Challenge)
Sunday 18/08:
- BoP v North Harbour
- Wellington v Taranaki
- Counties-Manukau v Waikato
My Predictions:
- Auckland 13+
- Northland 21+
- Tasman 6-
- Hawkes-Bay 6+ (Hoping to make it to McLean Park for this one)
- BoP 13+
- Taranaki 6-
- Waikato 13-
Seeing as I care more about the NPC than any other Rugby I feel like I ought to start a thread for this too, even though i'm the only person here that probably has any interest :)
Round 1 Fixtures:
- Taranaki v Counties-Manukau
- Auckland v Wellington
- Canterbury v Northland
- Southland v Otago
- Waikato v Bay of Plenty
- North Harbour v Hawkes Bay
- Manawatū v Tasman
- Bay of Plenty v Counties-Manukau*
*Due to the compressed nature of the competition every team has what's called a storm week where they end up playing 3 times in about 10 days which is why this match is marked as the 2nd game in round 1 for these two teams
- Australia v South Africa in Brisbane
- New Zealand v Argentina in Wellington
Massive news for Moana Pasifika, probably the biggest signing announcement in the entire history of Super Rugby.
No idea how they can afford him, but I've seen some people suggest they picked up some new finance from somewhere. It'll be interesting to see where he plays, possibly at 7 given Inisi had such a huge season at 8 for them this year.
Decided to tweak it from Summer Internationals bc its been freezing & frosty down here in my part of New Zealand!
- Tonga vs Italy
- Samoa vs Spain
- USA vs Scotland
- Canada vs Romania
- New Zealand vs England
- Australia vs Wales
- Japan vs Georgia
- Namibia vs Portugal
- South Africa vs Ireland
- Argentina vs France
Figured i'd write up a summary similar to the end of the round-robin.
The Losers:
8 - Rebels: Both a sad and successful way of ending the club. First time making the playoffs, last time playing a game. Some might argue that they spent a lot of money and didn't really get competitive - 8th place was earnt on 5 wins, 9 losses. But they actually played really well at times during the season. Maybe without all the off field stress the slump in the back half wouldn't have been so bad. A decent squad, coached fairly well - but trying to break the sporting market in Melbourne is tough. Even the NRL only has 1 team there in a city of 5 million, vs 9 in Sydney and (sortof) 2 in Brisbane. So small crowds probably leans into weaker home performances. Sad to see them go - the fans they did have were passionate, no idea who can replace them.
7 - Drua: From some of the smallest passionate crowds to some of the biggest. The Drua are near unbeatable at home in either Lautoka or Suva, and even in the quarter final against Auckland their fans were so loud it almost felt like a home game at times. 6-8 for the season, if they can find a way to consistently win away from home they will easily get a winning record and if they ever got a home quarter or semi, they would be hard not to back to go further. Everybody loves the Drua, and hopes that Moana Pasifika can replicate it!
6 - Highlanders: Like the Drua, a 6-8 season, the weakest kiwi squad struggled with injuries. When Rhys Patchell was playing they looked like a classic attacking NZ side. When he got injured out of the season up stepped Cam Millar and they went to a simple, old school game of slotting 3s and grinding teams out. I kinda loved it; especially de Groot's nonchalant one arm salute to the posts whenever the referee gave a penalty within 40m. Finally got a win against an NZ team after a long drought, and with a group of younger players maybe they're finally getting a development pathway that catches up with the rest of the clubs. If the playoffs are reduced to 6 next year and the Crusaders aren't having another shocker, they'll struggle to make it.
5 - Reds: The Reds are the only losing quarter finalist to have a winning round-robin record at 8-6; there's a lot to like about them and their young players will have a lot to draw from in future seasons but boy did they manage to crap the bed at times this season. Particularly away to teams they should have been beating. 31-40 away to the Force, 17-14 away to Moana Pasifika after a bye week. You can forgive the losses to the Drua and the Highlanders on the road but to be serious title contenders they'll need to find a way to win one of those and also win home games against teams like the Blues or Brumbies. Possibly their worst result and why I backed the Chiefs 20+ was only just beating the Waratahs who'd only managed wins against the Crusaders before that match. Les Kiss seems like a great coach though and I expect them to do pretty well next year.
The Semi-finals:
Well, given how dominant the top 3 teams were this season (all 12-2 records) its no surprise that with home field advantage the Hurricanes, Blues & Brumbies all made it through. The Chiefs went 9-5 but made light work of the Reds at home in what was in a way the least competitive of the 4 quarters. The Rebels really made the Hurricanes work in the first half, and the Drua and Highlanders competed for a time as well before succumbing to classier outfits.
None of the scores were close but they were decent matches; just fairly predictable results given the top 3 teams had double the wins of their opponents! Most of the crowds were on the low side, but the Aus-NZ games tend that way so maybe a bit of a disappointment but expected.
Blues - Brumbies: This should be a cracker; two great forward packs and direct teams going hammer & tongs. The Blues might be without Tuipolotu which will be a big loss he has been huge at lock for them this season; and Akira Ioane also picked up a niggle. Tricky to pick a winner so maybe just go with the home field advantage? Probably one of those games that needs the squad announcements before making a confident pick. Lolesio & Tom Wright have been great for the Brumbies this season so their backline is working well with a settled midfield combo too. Plus Rob Valetini's floor for performance is so high it's easily other player's ceiling. They have 1 Magpie in Ollie Sapsford so if they weren't Australian i'd be tempted to back them.
Hurricanes - Chiefs: The 'canes had 4 of my Magpies on the field at once in the quarter so I almost felt like supporting them. Don't know how many people they had at the stadium in Wellington - maybe only 9-10k, but i'd like to think if they'd made a bold call and held the quarter up at McLean park they'd have packed in 13,000 or so which would have looked & sounded cooler. Anyway, the Chiefs have under performed this season and failed in consecutive weeks against the Hurricanes at home, then the Blues away. But they only lost by 3 against the 'canes and can take a lot from how the Rebels used and abrasive defense and heavy work at the breakdown to limit the Hurricanes opportunities. I still think the Hurricanes have enough on defense to hold the Chiefs out, and more on attack to pick up points. If they get a roll on could even be a 13+ win, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs clinched a tight one.
Figured i'd share my thoughts on how the season shook out and what's coming up in the playoffs. Indulge me!
The losers:
12 - Waratahs: Even more injuries than the Crusaders, they've sucked for a few years now and just didn't have the cattle to compete. Maybe next year if they can pick up some decent players from the Rebels.
11 - Moana Pasifika: Some people rate this year as a bit of a turnaround with a better coaching setup. I'm not sure I see it. They beat the Drua, Reds, Force & Waratahs at "home" but were pretty woeful on the road, including a big game playing in Tonga. They desperately need a real home base (or at least a couple of bases they visit regularly outside of Auckland) and I suspect if SR can't find a 12th team for 2026 they might get dropped for a 10 team comp.
10 - Force: Of the losers, the Force actually looked pretty good at times. It feels a bit weird due to the allegations which he was acquitted of, but when Kurtley Beale started playing for them, the combo with Donaldson at 10 looked really good. Still they only managed 4 wins - even if they looked hard to beat at home.
9 - Crusaders: an awful season which the last few rounds showed was more to do with personnel being unavailable than anything else. Take Whitelock, Mounga and Jordan out of a team and they'll lose some stars, but then ask them to do without Taylor, Barrett, Blackadder, Burke and Havili as well and decimate their coaching staff for Razor's benefit. It shouldn't have been a surprise they struggled to win, let alone dominate. On the bright side, their loss was Super Rugby's gain - I think the interest in the comp comes from the unpredictability and SR should strive to ensure no team can dominate like that again, for the benefit of the comp itself.
The Playoffs:
SR has been a season where the top 3 have been awesome - all with 12 wins, then there's been a logjam in the middle until the strugglers who've all had 4 wins except the 'tahs on 2. That makes most of the quarters a little uncompetitive, but still...
Chiefs - Reds: There's a lot to like from the Reds this year, but they've been really inconsistent and away from home its hard to see them tipping over the Chiefs who've looked good whenever they're not playing the Hurricanes & Blues. Actually to be fair, they've looked ok against them too, but those two are on another level. Hurricanes - Rebels: The Rebels form over the last half of the season was awful, I see them getting stomped here. Hurricanes have been too good on attack this seasons. Blues - Drua: Everybody knows the Drua are incredible at home, but away they kinda suck. The Blues play a very direct & physical game, they should have even more players coming back for the playoffs and should have a dominant win. Brumbies - Highlanders: For a while there it was a chance that the Brumbies could take 2nd, or maybe even 1st place. They are near unbeatable at home. The Highlanders have had huge injury disruptions and have been solid enough but are unlikely to get past this round.
A lot of people mock the fact than in a 12 team competition a whole 8 teams make it into the playoffs. But with the top four teams secured with 2 rounds to go all of the drama is now in who will finish ranked 5th-12th.
None of the teams ranked 9-12 are playing each other in the next two rounds, in a way that should significantly change their fortunes (barring 1 game) so I think its mathematically possible for any of them to actually qualify in 8th if the Drua lose both of their next two games.
So in a way a generous qualification serves to deliver 4 matches in he first week of the playoffs and ensures there's something to play for all the way to the end of the round-robin.
So thinking of the bottom 6 teams...
- The Highlanders have the Drua at home, then the Hurricanes away so should bank at least another 4 points putting them on minimum 27.
- The Drua struggle away but have the Rebels at home in the last round so should pick up another 4 putting them up on 25.
- The Force go away to the Reds, and then have the Brumbies at home so ordinarily you'd think two losses, but they are a real force at home and Kurtley Beale has helped ignite their attack - its plausible they pick up two wins so land anywhere from 23-27 points.
- The Crusaders are highly unlikely to beat the Blues away this weekend, then have Moana Pasifika at home. MP were very competitive against the Hurricanes this weekend so I could see an upset but it really depends on if Scott Barrett is back or not. Maybe 19-20 points.
- Moana Pasifika are at "home" to the Waratahs and away to the Cru so are probable 19 points, possibly 23.
- The Waratahs injury rates are so high that even though Moana Pasifika's "home" game won't give them the edge a normal home game would they probably won't win, and then they're at home to the Reds who haven't travelled well this year. Its possibly they pick up a couple of wins and end up on 20, if they got bonus points their ceiling is 22; but they've had a horrible season and its more likely they'll only land on 12-14.
Based on what's likely the current top 8 are the top 8; the most likely change is The Force getting up and dropping either the Highlanders or Drua out depending on which one of them win that match.
The top 4 are confirmed, but they all still have plenty to play for if they're hoping to move through the playoffs and want to secure home advantage for more games. Games to watch are Chiefs-Hurricanes this weekend, and then Blues-Chiefs the following as that will decide who finishes where.
Also - the kiwi teams are going to be toughened / tired depending on how you look at it as Blues, Hurricanes, Chiefs all have some big games to play against other Kiwi teams heading into the playoffs.
Even more so than Foster, Sam Cane was very unfairly maligned by the NZ Rugby public during the trials of the '22 - '23 seasons.
It reflects what we value in our rugby players that being the guy on the field that cleaned up after other's mistakes, did all the hard graft, the heavy tackling, clean-outs that he was often mocked for a drive of only a couple metres when receiving the ball. Most folks missed that what he was doing was giving the ABs attack line a chance to reform while under huge duress from defensive pressure.
He hit top form in time for the World Cup and even after all the injuries he'd suffered over the years his defensive hits were huge. I'm a kiwi so of course I think it was unjust that he received a red, while Kolisi got only a yellow given the contrasting force in their two tackles. But even if the ABs had won the cup last year somehow he would still have his doubters back home.
He's 32, has had to suffer through some major injuries - deserves a few years making big money with his family close by before retiring from rugby altogether.