I'm going off the week 1 polls. She was weaker than everyone else when adjusted for name recognition and was the only one within the margins of Biden. I also don't disagree on the base point, but there's 3 months, the war machine needs time to spool up and the Republicans have had a 2 week headstart. It's gonna be tight and Pensyllvania is not going well
The last thing anybody wants is Trump pulling it out and calling all the headlines lies. Surprised Biden never did actually
Just FYI so you don't get 'gotchaed', Trump isn't the oldest nominee ever. Neither was Biden. Record is still held by Peter Cooper from the reconstruction era who was 84 when nominated.
Assuming the new candidate(probably Harris) avoid any major disasters as does Trump, we’ll be returning to the May 2024 status quo of things. Harris is more popular than post-debate Biden, was slightly behind pre-debate Biden, and will probably need a month to get back there(winning the nomination and undoing all the damage from 4 weeks of infighting.)
On the plus side, that’ll drop the hemorrhaging, New Mexico and New Jersey safe, Virginia and Minnesota probably safe. On the downside at this point Georgia and North Carolina are lost, there just isn’t time and the Republicans spent 4 years pouring resources into them.
This is back to the main 5. Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The important factor is that if they lose Pennsylvania, they lose. They can win the other 4 here, but it’s 268-270. Unless they snag something extra like Georgia(unlikely in this scenario), that’s it.
If they win Pennsylvania, they need at least two others in ideal circumstances(Michigan needs to be one of the two and Nevada can’t be one of the two, second one would have to be Wisconsin or Arizona), 3 others in unideal circumstances if Michigan isn’t there and they get Nevada. I should also note several of these scenarios are razor thin (270-268 with Pensylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and 271-267 with Arizona instead) and thus vulnerable to faithless electors. Or worse, if Maine’s statewide went red(which is more likely than Georgia going blue or Virginia going red at this point) the former would be a win and the latter would be a tie. In the tie scenario the House picks the president(so Trump) and the Senate picks the Vice President(so Vance would be ousted) which would be an absolute nightmare and gambling on Trump dying in that situation isn’t worth it.
I note this because even in the base line May scenario Pennsylvania was one of the worse polling one for democrats(Arizona and Wisconsin were the blue edging ones), and Pennsylvania is not a state where the stars are aligning. It was Biden’s home state, Scranton boy, him being off the ticket hurts things there probably more than they help. AND, while it’s true nationwide the post-shooting bump for Trump was relatively minor, Pennsylvania is where the shooting happened and has gotten the largest bump in the polls since, 3 or 4 points. Biden leaving demotivates the base there harder than anywhere else in the county and the Trump shooting re-motivated the base there harder than most.
My call? If they don’t pick Shapiro or Whitmer, it’s over 100%, and even with it’s iffy. Pennsylvania is perhaps the one state where any replacement is going to do worse than Biden even post-debate, and the one state the Trump shooting caused a notable bump. What are the odds it’s also the single most crucial state in this election?
Assuming the new candidate(probably Harris) avoid any major disasters as does Trump, we'll be returning to the May 2024 status quo of things. Harris is more popular than post-debate Biden, was slightly behind pre-debate Biden, and will probably need a month to get back there(winning the nomination and undoing all the damage from 4 weeks of infighting.)
On the plus side, that'll drop the hemorrhaging, New Mexico and New Jersey safe, Virginia and Minnesota probably safe. On the downside at this point Georgia and North Carolina are lost, there just isn't time and the Republicans spent 4 years pouring resources into them.
This is back to the main 5. Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The important factor is that if they lose Pennsylvania, they lose. They can win the other 4 here, but it's 268-270. Unless they snag something extra like Georgia(unlikely in this scenario), that's it.
If they win Pennsylvania, they need at least two others in ideal circumstances(Michigan needs to be one of the two and Nevada can't be one of the two, second one would have to be Wisconsin or Arizona), 3 others in unideal circumstances if Michigan isn't there and they get Nevada. I should also note several of these scenarios are razor thin (270-268 with Pensylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and 271-267 with Arizona instead) and thus vulnerable to faithless electors. Or worse, if Maine's statewide went red(which is more likely than Georgia going blue or Virginia going red at this point) the former would be a win and the latter would be a tie. In the tie scenario the House picks the president(so Trump) and the Senate picks the Vice President(so Vance would be ousted) which would be an absolute nightmare and gambling on Trump dying in that situation isn't worth it.
I note this because even in the base line May scenario Pennsylvania was one of the worse polling one for democrats(Arizona and Wisconsin were the blue edging ones), and Pennsylvania is not a state where the stars are aligning. It was Biden's home state, Scranton boy, him being off the ticket hurts things there probably more than they help. AND, while it's true nationwide the post-shooting bump for Trump was relatively minor, Pennsylvania is where the shooting happened and has gotten the largest bump in the polls since, 3 or 4 points. Biden leaving demotivates the base there harder than anywhere else in the county and the Trump shooting re-motivated the base there harder than most.
My call? If they don't pick Shapiro or Whitmer, it's over 100%, and even with it's iffy. Pennsylvania is perhaps the one state where any replacement is going to do worse than Biden even post-debate, and the one state the Trump shooting caused a notable bump. What are the odds it's also the single most crucial state in this election?
(Don't know why the link isn't in OP https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tMgHGeEGzg)
I've heard there's (alledgly) pressure from the progressive wing to avoid this because they want to win the Popular Vote regardless of outcome. Losing both makes them look weak. Or worse(to them), if they won the Electoral College and lost the Popular Vote. Some feel it would massively decrease support for the popular vote as a lot of people may only be supporting it when it backs there team(I will note support for reform is far higher among democrats, make of that what you will)
He wasn't dead in 2016. None of them were
For example, the 2016, 2020, and the pseudo- 2024 Democrat Primaries have shared a significant crowd. People have come and gone(Bernie gave up in 2024. Biden didn't stick in 2016 long due to family issues), but for the most part you'll see the same people. Or the Republicans from 2008-2012, mostly the same guys. Heck, Hillary and Biden, the future nominees, both did really well in 2008, coming second and 3rd(ish) overall. Al Gore had tried prior to Bill getting in. Even way way back you had guys like Henry Clay trying and trying and trying.
But then you compare something like 2012 Republican Primaries to the 2016 Republican Primaries. None of the big names return, no Mitt Romney, no McCain, no Newt Gingrinch, no Rick Sanctorum, no Ron Paul, no Fred Karger. The ONLY returnee at all out of like 15-20 serious contenders was Rick Perry, who was a minor nominee that dropped out early both times. The big 5 or big 6 or even big 7 were completely different.
