They'll never accept the Italians/Irish, they're still blue, they're still blue!
They'll never win the Dixiecrats, they're still blue, they're still blue
The Latino Men will ALWAYS vote blue this time we swear
Swing State is 5 point margin or less. Virginia is like 5.1 right now so it's arguably stretching the definition, but still.
Also as I pointed out, that argument doesn't hold up nearly as well in New Hampshire or Minnesota. Trump basically ignored NH despite giving Virginia and New Mexico plenty of attention. NJ got more attention. Hell, NY and Cali got more attention. He visited it with Vance once at the literal last minute because of how hard the polls tightened in the last week(see 538). Not to mention the third party spread there was horrible for him, RFK Jr and Chase Oliver both there(and New Hampshire Republicans are very libertarian), and just Jill Stein on the left, no Cornel or Claudia or one of the fringe Socialists.
Take out RFK Jr, add in Claudia or Cornel, get Trump to give them the same level of attention he gave Virginia or New Mexico, maybe make a speech with those clips of Democrats calling to end New Hampshire and Iowas Primary lead spot vowing to protect their first primary role. I genuinely think it would have flipped Red in that scenario.
The other two no, but Minnesota had their Golden Boy as the VP and only held by less than 4 points. Without him? With more Trump visits? Ehhhh. New Mexico was mostly fine, I'm pretty much entirely citing 1.1% of the vote going to RFK Jr. Probably past the Swing State margin without that. Also there's a new Liberal Party there made from moderate Libertarians.
(If you were to include Arizona, you'd also have to include New Mexico and New Jersey, both of which were closer than Arizona. Maine is also only slightly less close than Arizona)
2020 was a massive outlier and trying to frame 2024 as a low turnout election is dishonest. 2024 is the second highest turnout of any election in decades and the third highest since 1900(only behind 2020 and 1960). The gap you see floating around is days outdated, even in this comment section people are saying Trump got less votes than last time which isn't true anymore.
Also how do you know some of those people didn't defect? Trump is beating his 2020 numbers despite losing twice as many supporters to COVID, where did the new guys come from? (Especially that latter point, between old age and COVID Trump probably had another 2 million voters in 2020 who are dead now if not more)
74,366,055 is higher than 74,223,975 and there's still 4% of the vote to be counted. And the US Population is basically the same as in 2020 due to COVID offsetting and birth and immigration decline related to it.
Virginia and to a lesser extent NJ you could argue were redder then they really are due to factors like Youngkin, an extremely left leaning third party spread(Virginia the worst in the nation for the democrats), and Trump's local popularity in NJ.
But if you make that argument New Mexico and Minnesota and New Hampshire are the opposite, local factors and third parties were against Trump and he still did really well. If you want my honest 2024 swing state map prediction swap out Virginia for New Mexico
The meme is not only did they not turn 'weak' red states like Texas or Ohio or Iowa or Florida into swing states, but 3 safe blue states instead ended up becoming Swing States and Arizona is now a red state.
It's 11% of what it was in late July if that helps
11% of what it was the day he dropped out
"Where's Joe? Kamawho? Doh I guess I'll just vote for Trump, I liked cheaper gas"
California is only 57%
Had Trump won in 2020, he’d have taken the fall for the Recession and Hyperinflation and it would have caused a 2008 effect. Populist Wave haulted, strangled in it’s crib by Coronachan.
Had Trump won in 2020, he’d be done now and his VP would still be the democracy respecting Pence.
Trump when elected in 2016 had no major plan and mostly left the employees of the state intact, and in 2020 the change was minimal. Now there’s a full blown scheme to control the government
In 2020 they didn’t know how much they could get away with. They’ve seen the limits now.
Winning in 2020 means no January 6th shattering the overton window and leading SCOTUS to some interesting choices about power.
2020-2024 had one Supreme Court Justice to appoint. Now there’s another 2 if not 3
In 2020 it would have been close. Now Democrats will have to regain ground, New Jersey New Hampshire and Minnesota are now Swing States.
2016 Trump had his populist wave weakened by Gary Johnson and Evan McMulin who blocked the popular vote and kept states like Colorado and New Mexico out of his hands. 2016 Trump sucked with Hispanics. That initial wave would have burnt out with the COVID fuckery. Instead Democrats slotted in, took the 4 worst possible years, and are handing it back having effectively both given them another shot in the arm and crippled themselves. There goes the court. This isn’t John Kerry, it’s Carter.
I’ve heard of 2020 hindsight, but this is ridiculous
Had Trump won in 2020, he’d have taken the fall for the Recession and Hyperinflation and it would have caused a 2008 effect. Populist Wave haulted, strangled in it’s crib by Coronachan.
Had Trump won in 2020, he’d be done now and his VP would still be the democracy respecting Pence.
Trump when elected in 2016 had no major plan and mostly left the employees of the state intact, and in 2020 the change was minimal. Now there’s a full blown scheme to control the government
In 2020 they didn’t know how much they could get away with. They’ve seen the limits now.
Winning in 2020 means no January 6th shattering the overton window and leading SCOTUS to some interesting choices about power.
2020-2024 had one Supreme Court Justice to appoint. Now there’s another 2 if not 3
In 2020 it would have been close. Now Democrats will have to regain ground, New Jersey New Hampshire and Minnesota are now Swing States.
2016 Trump had his populist wave weakened by Gary Johnson and Evan McMulin who blocked the popular vote and kept states like Colorado and New Mexico out of his hands. 2016 Trump sucked with Hispanics. That initial wave would have burnt out with the COVID fuckery. Instead Democrats slotted in, took the 4 worst possible years, and are handing it back having effectively both given them another shot in the arm and crippled themselves. There goes the court. This isn’t John Kerry, it’s Carter.
I’ve heard of 2020 hindsight, but this is ridiculous
Had Trump won in 2020, he’d have taken the fall for the Recession and Hyperinflation and it would have caused a 2008 effect. Populist Wave haulted, strangled in it’s crib by Coronachan.
Had Trump won in 2020, he’d be done now and his VP would still be the democracy respecting Pence.
Trump when elected in 2016 had no major plan and mostly left the employees of the state intact, and in 2020 the change was minimal. Now there’s a full blown scheme to control the government
In 2020 they didn’t know how much they could get away with. They’ve seen the limits now.
Winning in 2020 means no January 6th shattering the overton window and leading SCOTUS to some interesting choices about power.
2020-2024 had one Supreme Court Justice to appoint. Now there’s another 2 if not 3
In 2020 it would have been close. Now Democrats will have to regain ground, New Jersey New Hampshire and Minnesota are now Swing States.
2016 Trump had his populist wave weakened by Gary Johnson and Evan McMulin who blocked the popular vote and kept states like Colorado and New Mexico out of his hands. 2016 Trump sucked with Hispanics. That initial wave would have burnt out with the COVID fuckery. Instead Democrats slotted in, took the 4 worst possible years, and are handing it back having effectively both given them another shot in the arm and crippled themselves. There goes the court. This isn’t John Kerry, it’s Carter.
I’ve heard of 2020 hindsight, but this is ridiculous
HENCE MY POINT.
He stopped saying Mexicans or Hispanics and started saying Illegals for the most part. Boom.
Also I've seen a lot of 'first they came for the socialists' type posting about that. In a fucked up way that's actually the outcome the Democrats want. The other option is the Hispanics became 'honorary whites', the next Italian or Irish. Hispanic isn't even really a race in the sense that black or white or asian(or native american, technically those two are one race sorta long story), it's Mixed, European White - Slave Black - Native Mesoamerican, just mixed and mixing with other mixed so long you can't really pick it out. We usually call the whiter ones Hispanics and the ones with a lot more Native or Black mestizo or creole or...Native and Black. Hispanic Culture is heavily christian and European influenced, it can be integrated into that coalition without too much trouble.
If the established second generation Hispanics settle into reliable Republican or even just the men, that's a Southern Strategy tier realignment. The Democrats are fucked for a generation. Outgroups don't stay Outgroups forever, and we know how European Cultured Religious 'in-groups' do in the USA.
Think Carter. Nixon had a populist wave born out of the DNCs 1968 disaster destroying the Kennedy lead operation dating back years, it was big. Then a huge scandal knocked the wind out of him, populist wave was down, Democrats won with a safe white guy, mission accomplished? Except the economy imploded and a ton of foreign wars happened and everyone blamed 'histories greatest monster' and the Republican populist wave that would have died with Nixon got a round to breathe and the Democrats took the fall for the disaster in Carters term. 8 years of Reagan followed and then 4 years of Reagan 2, Texas Boogaloo. Except Reagan was old and JD Vance isn't.
I compared these threads to the one in 2016 announcing the win. Mostly different vibes(more awe and surprise and 'maybe it won't be so bad' and less horror), but two things in common.
- Brexit comparisons(2016 had more, but still)
- People blaming a dead beloved mammal for cursing the timeline(Squirrelboy is up there with Harambe now...)
Also 2020 Trump was still struggling with Hispanics. The 2015 rhetoric really hurt him there. Too fucking late to put that genie back in the bottle. It's gone man, solid gone
538 predicts a 2020 sized Harris victory, Georgia and North Carolina flip. THQ predicts a tight Harris win, mostly in the Rust Belt & maybe a NC grab? RCP predicts a tight Trump victory via Pennsylvania.
All 3 agree on Georgia going red and Michigan and Wisconsin going blue. Those states have held their colors firm for quite some time.
Whether former swing states, captured ex-solid states, or states that have always had close margins. I picked 7 for each side(I was gonna do 3, then 4, then 5, but the number on one side always felt awkward like one side had a weird outlier edge case or something. Pink has a clean base of 4 while Cyan has two main ones and then like, 5 is the next one where it all fits)
Pink States are Iowa, Ohio, and Florida(former Swing States in the 2000-2016 era), Texas, South Carolina, and Alaska (Red States weakening) and Indiana(2008 pick up that's been red before and after).
Cyan States are Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, and New Hampshire(former swing states in the 2000-2016 era), plus Maine and Minnesota(perpetually teetering states) and New Jersey(Blue state weakening).
Every trustworthy non-partison poll in Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina has gone exactly one way. The Wisconsin and Michigan red polls are either old or by very Republican sources, the Blue Georgia poll and dead even North Carolina polls were by Democratic Party sponsors Progress Action and Carolina forward.
Trump couldn't comfortably get above 'dead even' in Wisconsin and Michigan when it was still Biden and he had the shooting bump, just in very right leaning polls like Trafalgar, and now with Walz? Gone. Harris can't get ahead at the near peak of a solid blue wave in the Media outside of known biased pollsters, she isn't taking them in November barring a miracle. Georgia has been a GOP spending ground since they lost it in 2020.
This is going to come down to Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, and it's going to come down to whether or not Nebraska passes the winner take all law.
Pennsylvania is the single most important. Win it, and you win unless everything else here goes wrong(Nebraska law not in favor, lose Arizona and Nevada, lose one of the 4 probably safe-ish states mentioned above). You wanna win without PA, everything else needs to go right. If Nebraska does pass it's still the most important single state(it plus any other state is a win while Nevada + Arizona isn't) but winning without it becomes plausible albeit it would be a tie.
(That's a tie, BTW)
A necropsy found that the cub had “blunt force injuries consistent with a motor vehicle collision,” the Department of Environmental Conservation said, but little else was revealed about the mystery.
(Wouldn't be the first time someone just googled Shapiro and got Jovial Josh mixed up with Blitzkrieg Benjamin)
For example, the 2016, 2020, and the pseudo- 2024 Democrat Primaries have shared a significant crowd. People have come and gone(Bernie gave up in 2024. Biden didn't stick in 2016 long due to family issues), but for the most part you'll see the same people. Or the Republicans from 2008-2012, mostly the same guys. Heck, Hillary and Biden, the future nominees, both did really well in 2008, coming second and 3rd(ish) overall. Al Gore had tried prior to Bill getting in. Even way way back you had guys like Henry Clay trying and trying and trying.
But then you compare something like 2012 Republican Primaries to the 2016 Republican Primaries. None of the big names return, no Mitt Romney, no McCain, no Newt Gingrinch, no Rick Sanctorum, no Ron Paul, no Fred Karger. The ONLY returnee at all out of like 15-20 serious contenders was Rick Perry, who was a minor nominee that dropped out early both times. The big 5 or big 6 or even big 7 were completely different.
