I believe you have the burden backward - it's on the state to show such a restriction is likely to have an impact so as to justify its existence.

It seems that you are saying simultaneously that this is a very weak measure, and also it is a strong enough measure to upset people.

Rather, the very nature of arbitrary restrictions - for absolutely no gain - is quite enough to upset people.

So then, we have a problem. Something must be done, but even this very small step gets blocked, fought against, and has individuals such as yourself encouraging others to not support it.

Any step which encroaches upon rights without direct tie to solving a problem should be resisted. Have you considered Democrats could, say, literally anything other than big scary rifle and big scary standard mags?

You’ve said that it could be used as ‘ammo’ against Democrats, to say that “They are coming for your guns.” But couldn’t you also say that its the opposite? Like, if someone is worried that “they” are going to take guns away, maybe that person could be placated by knowing that this near-nothing step is what is actually being asked for. It isn’t taking guns away. It’s a step that, as you say, won’t make a lot of difference anyway. So can’t that help reduce fear of change?

Given these measures are well-understood as entirely ineffective yet pushed for, it is similarly well-understood there will be further restrictions as nothing will change with the identified problem - how could it, given the measures aren't in any way an addressing of those issues? Thus, we're left with a road to bans via incrementalism.

I would imagine after Roe v. Wade's pivot, you'd understand how relying on but SCOTUS isn't sound strategy - one must, instead, reject politicians pushing for such arbitrary, unhelpful measures rather than enabling the incompetence and erosion.

From my point of view, something must change. Some people propose big changes, some propose small changes. And both meet resistance. I suggest that if you also want change, then it’s probably best to support even small changes without worrying about someone else might get upset that a change was attempted at all.

It would be fair to say politicians are proposing changes; they're unfortunately proposing the wrong ones - neither party is currently willing to consider anything outside their respective side of the wedge issue.

Blue team could entirely win here, were they willing to abandon their ivory tower - they refuse to do so. That failing is on them and no one else.

This hill worth dying on to lose elections to the GOP?

It has been for quite a few elections now - it would cost blue team nothing to pivot and yet they refuse to do so.