Either Yellen knows something we don't or she's gaslighting us on the state of the US economy. As major indicators start to collapse, she is still insisting on a soft landing.
Either Yellen knows something we don't or she's gaslighting us on the state of the US economy. As major indicators start to collapse, she is still insisting on a soft landing.
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Economy is slowing drastically in south Texas. Lot of the other plumbers I know are being laid off or sent home early for days in a row. New construction has all but fallen off. I am the lead on three new homes and a half dozen or more remodels. All 3 new homes are on hiatus until beginning of the year due to cash flow Issues. Except for two remodels, all the others are on hold. Our daily service calls are dwindling down to a half a day or so’s worth of work daily. My neighbor pours concrete- he has been home every day this week, employees can’t use their tools because there isn’t shit to do.
Unemployment here is up anecdotally- due to being a tradie for so long most of the other folks I know are also tradesmen of some sort. I ran into a framing carpenter I’ve know for over 20 years who is working a second job as a gas station attendant just to have some money coming in. One of the painters I used to call to repair drywall after I cut walls open to fix plumbing is no longer painting, he went back to school to get certified to teach school.
Something is happening. I’m too dumb to understand it tho.
High interest rates caused mass layoffs and curbed investment into new projects. All of this is the downstream effect of the Fed trying to strangle wage growth because people weren't suffering enough. Now nobody has any money to buy things and companies who gleefully raised prices while wages stagnated are reaping what they have sown.
This is straight up Milton Friedman thought. He is the architect of our ruin:
As Friedman emphasized, “Inflation is an old, old disease. We’ve had thousands of years of experience of it. There is nothing simpler than stopping an inflation—from the technical point of view.”
That remedy took a specific form: “The only cure for inflation is to reduce the rate at which total spending is growing.” This cure involved a temporary side effect, as Friedman noted: “There is no way of slowing down inflation that will not involve a transitory increase in unemployment, and a transitory reduction in the rate of growth of output. But these costs will be far less than the costs that will be incurred by permitting the disease of inflation to rage unchecked.”
Milton Friedman on Inflation - Edward Nelson
When you are arguing with neolibs on economy, you are arguing with Milton Friedman.
Historically (since Sumer and Babylon) debt has been reset periodically because compound interest eventually breaks the economy. New kings would reset the debt because most of them were to the palace and it kept their army intact by not having small holders constantly getting dispossessed.
Our modern priests have convinced themselves that actually that's bullshit and profits can go on forever exponentially, while the production curve is logistic.
I doubt the need for those things has gone down, right? So it must be because people can’t afford it. The companies could literally just lower their massively inflated prices and have more business.
When your system is so logical and efficient that it comes crashing down because a few people refuse to reduce prices.
The need is as prevalent as ever. A downturned economy doesn’t mean things no longer break or need repaired, it just means that now people can’t afford to fix what is broken.
The shop I work at just bumped its rates per hour, to ‘keep in line with what other service plumbers charge’. We just jumped from 125/hr for a plumber or 200/hr for a plumber and apprentice to 175/hr for a plumber and 275/hr for a plumber and apprentice. What was already stupidly expensive has become even more so. Just for me and my helper to show up, it’s nearly 300 bucks. That’s before I even fix the fucking problem. The fix is even more expensive.
I get a lot of work from people who’d rather have it done as side work by me for straight cash versus my employer being involved. Seems like greed is at an all time high.
I don’t regret having children but I do think about the mess me and my ilk are leaving them.
Our daily service calls are dwindling down to half a day or so’s worth of work daily.
We just jumped from 125/hr to 175/hr
I bet whoever made that decision doesn’t see the connection there. Such a logical system.