Yes, I can't see Hamilton throwing away a position in the top five to fight too hard with Verstappen. And verstappen, like Hamilton, is extremely good at getting past and then gently eking out a lead in a superior car without destroying his tyres. I think 2 laps minimum, 5 maximum, Verstappen is past and building his lead.
Unless Red Bull botched the upgrades and they got poor race pace....but then again I did suggest merc would be out q1 with new format....so that was 50% right...