Bulletins and News Discussion from June 17th to June 23rd, 2024 - Macron's Gambit - COTW: France
Bulletins and News Discussion from June 17th to June 23rd, 2024 - Macron's Gambit - COTW: France
Macron has recently called a snap parliamentary election in the aftermath of the far-right getting a large proportion of the votes in the EU elections. Why exactly he called an election at a point of profound weakness is a little beyond me. Explanations that I've seen range from "He thinks the element of surprise will benefit his party and not others," to "WW3 is about to start and he doesn't want to be leader for it," (which, like, isn't true - Macron is the President of France, not Prime Minister, he won't be unseated by this election and he has said he will not stand down regardless of result), to "He doesn't want to swim in the shit-filled Seine."
While we still have a couple weeks to go, the polling I've seen generally puts the far-right in first place with the left-wing coalition slightly behind, with Macron's party all the way back in third place. Anybody who knows anything about French politics knows that while France does actually have something of a left opposition in aggregate (in contrast to the two wings of the Capitalist Party in the UK and the US, for example), French left coalitions are profoundly unstable and this one will inevitably split - perhaps even before the voting begins - meaning they aren't nearly as useful as they otherwise could be.
Living in a France governed by far right parties would be awful, but maybe they might at least be against the carnage in Ukraine, and sue for peace with Russia? Well, possibly not, if the example of Meloni in Italy is anything to go by. It seems that the differences between the "centrist" parties and the fascist ones truly are not that great, beholden to the exact same set of capitalists regardless of which party wins, and will likely bend the knee to NATO, though they may grumble a lot. Would a left coalition be better on Russia/NATO? They have already helpfully told us that they won't (only opposing sending French troops to Ukraine but otherwise being full steam ahead), and additionally are genocidal Zionists. Western leftists have long been hampered by a dramatically faulty misunderstanding of how geopolitics works, with many seemingly believing "imperialism is when countries interact with other countries" and "democracy is when you can vote between two parties even if widely popular policies aren't at all represented by either of them, and if those popular policies are enacted but it's by a one-party state then that's authoritarian evil" and other such strange ideas, making them terminally useless on foreign issues and pretty unremarkable on domestic issues too. France is no exception.
And just to top it all off, this is coming in a period of further imperial decline for the tattered remains of the French empire, with West Africa rebelling and Kanaky (New Caledonia) deeply unhappy with recent French decisions.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is France! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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The president of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa, just got inaugurated for his second term. I saw some of the fighter jets practicing their flyover near the Union Buildings earlier this week. Today is the first day of the Government of National Unity (GNU), effectively a coalition between the ANC and DA. To mark this occasion, old video footage, from 2010, has emerged of DA Member of Parliament Renaldo Gouws using racial slurs. For some background, Renaldo Gouws was an "anti SJW" YouTuber during the 2010s, that joined the DA last year for reasons no one can quite explain. What a way to start the GNU... Day one and a DA member is already involved in a racism scandal.
New racist video of DA MP Renaldo Gouws surfaces, Independent Online, 19 June 2024
article snippets, warning for racism
A shocking new video has emerged of a Democratic Alliance Member of Parliament Renaldo Gouws appearing to spew hate speech.
In the video first published to his Youtube channel and subsequently deleted, Gouws says “Alright so there’s a couple of things I want to say. Kill the f**ing kffirs, kill all the fing nggers. That’s all I gotta fing say. Kill all the kffirs! Kill all the fing n*ggers!”
No comment
However, the video was made available to Democratic Alliance (DA) federal chairperson Helen Zille.
Zille said she would check the veracity of the video before commenting.
“I have contacted Renaldo. He says he has no recollection at all of making a video with such vile language and says if one exists, it could be AI generated.”
Zille went on to say that “Renaldo is denying flat out that he ever made this video. I am sending it for testing.”
The video was retrieved from the internet archive, which collects snapshots of web pages from time to time for retrieval and leaked to IOL.
Even though this content is deleted from Youtube, the video still exists in this archive.
The video was allegedly published by Gouws on 11 March 2010 under the title “Kill all black people” before being deleted, but not before the content was archived.
Open source analyst Andrew Fraser confirmed to IOL that the video was legitimate and that it is highly unlikely that the video is AI generated.
“Deepfake technology has been generally available for fewer than 5 years. This video first aroused controversy in 2016, so unlikely that it was deepfaked. The video is visible on Gouws’ YouTube channel archive on the Internet Archive Wayback Machine and was archived in 2011. The archive is of the actual Rendier YouTube Channel page, not a third party - so unlikely to have been placed there maliciously,” said Fraser.
Gouws however has denied he made the video when contacted for comment.
“Made hundreds of videos over the years. Would not have used those terms. I don’t have actual context from who the source is and how it could have been manipulated through audio or video AI. Whether this was an old video manipulated to use those words the same way my previous videos have been manipulated and audio synched to say things I never said. I don't have full context but as with the last couple of days there has been a clear smear campaign against me and this seems to have reached new heights", said Gouws.
The article explains itself. The video exists, it was uploaded to the internet archive 13 years ago, it's not fake or AI, it's impossible for it to be. It's real, you can access it right now, and he did use those terms.
The full video of the incident on the internet archive, warning for racism
Wtf is going on in SA? I know that the ANC has turned neoliberal and discredited itself same as western European socialist parties and US democrats by moving ever right ward. But, what explains DAs success in SA coloured population? Simply de-emphacized by the ANC with the emphasis on Zulu tribal populations by MK and EFF? Are class differences sharply increasing amongst these peoples within the nation? The break up in the ANC coalition could be tragic.
Am I getting this all wrong?
The DA haven't actually succeeded, they got the same share of the votes they did last time, around 20%. What has happened is that the ANC's share of the vote has fallen below 50%, thus a coalition government is a reality. The EFF did try to get votes from Zulu nationalists and tried to get Jacob Zuma to join the EFF, but that was a failed endeavour as Jacob Zuma simply started his own political party in the MK. The EFF and MK are ANC off shoots already, Malema was part of the ANC Youth League, and Zuma was president.
As for why the ANC went into coalition with the DA, it's because it was the only viable option to actually form a government. The MK is led by Jacob Zuma, ex ANC leader and ex South African president. The MK demanded the resignation of Ramaphosa as the leader of the ANC as a prerequisite for a coalition. This was considered a non starter for the ANC. An ANC+EFF coalition also was not viable as the ANC+EFF together do not have 50% of the vote, so other parties would have to get involved. The EFF wanted to work with the ANC as a senior coalition partner and get multiple smaller parties to join to get just barely over 50% with no DA involvement due to ideological reasons, or to work with the MK in a ANC-MK-EFF coalition. The first option was not considered viable by the ANC as multiple parties coming together to barely get over 50% could easily fall apart. The ANC also viewed the EFF as hypocritical as they have worked together with the DA in the past to attempt to "destroy the ANC" in their view. The second option was also not viable due to the MK's stance on Ramaphosa. Thus, we are left with the ANC - DA coalition.
Main problem with the ANC has been corruption and ineffective service delivery moreso than policy, though policy is certainly a major issue.
To understand the DA's success amongst the coloured population, you have to understand that the coloured community is very socially conservative, and that there is anti black racism amongst older coloured people. You just have to compare the performance of the PA, the socially conservative political party based around coloured identity, to GOOD, the socially progressive party based on coloured identity, to see how socially conservative the coloured community is as a whole. The closet thing to the coloured community in the United States would probably be the Mexican/Latino community, though there are too many differences for it to be a 1 to 1 comparison. But the social conservatism is very similar. Also, the majority of coloured people in South Africa live in the Western Cape, a province that has been governed by the DA for quite some time now, and has the best financial management, despite growing inequality. So voters in the Western Cape want to keep that despite all the issues around DA governance.