Nate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.
Nate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.
As our model launches, either Biden or Trump could easily win — but the odds are in the ex-president’s favor.
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Trump does still lead in our national average — however narrowly. But the bigger problem for Biden though is that elections in the United States aren’t determined by the popular vote.
That's a problem for all of us. If the president were elected by popular vote, Trump would never have been president.
Neither would George W. Bush. Republicans have won the popular vote only once in the last 32 years, and that was Bush as the incumbent in 2004 - which wouldn't have happened had Gore been the incumbent.
This is a center-left country, with an election system that gives extreme right-wingers oversized influence.
This far from being a left center country.
The left is larger than the right, here. How does that make it not a center-left country? We're sure as hell not a right-wing country, and much of our government is an accident of antiquated and stupid systems, not a true reflection of the people.
The election system distorts the vote quite dramatically in the US, that's true.
However, depending on where you're from left has quite a different meaning from what Americans mean when they say left. E.g. the Democrats don't want to dismantle capitalism or expropriate real estate companies (the city of Berlin seriously looked into this option). Center left has a similar shift in meaning in other countries.
Those that think they are on the left is larger. When they support politicians viewed around the world as right wing, they too are right wing
Well if the right can’t win how would that be a fair system?
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Presumably in much the same way that toddlers can't win a high school scholar bowl. Just because one side or type of idea is a clear winner doesn't mean it's not a fair system.
I wish I could play little league now, I’d kick ass.
Fuck, sarcasm is lost on this crowd.
