Bulletins and News Discussion from December 2nd to December 8th, 2024 - May A Hundred Hazel Flowers Bloom - COTW: Russia
Bulletins and News Discussion from December 2nd to December 8th, 2024 - May A Hundred Hazel Flowers Bloom - COTW: Russia
Image is of one of the six salvos of the Oreshnik missile striking Ukraine.
The Oreshnik is an intermediate-range ballistic missile that appears to split into six groups of six submunitions as it strikes its target, giving it the appearance of a hazel flower. It can travel at ten times the speed of sound, and cannot be intercepted by any known Western air defense system, and thus Russia can strike and conventionally destroy any target anywhere in Europe within 20 minutes. Two weeks ago, Russia used the Oreshnik to strike the Yuzhmash factory in Ukraine, particularly its underground facilities, in which ballistic missiles are produced.
Despite the destruction caused by the missile, and its demonstration of Russian missile supremacy over the imperial core, various warmongering Western countries have advocated for further reprisals against Russia, with Ukraine authorized by the US to continue strikes. Additionally, the recent upsurge of the fighting in Syria is no doubt connected to trying to stretch Russia thin, as well as attempting to isolate Hezbollah and Palestine from Iran; how successful this will have ended up being will depend on the outcome of the Russia and Syrian counteroffensive. Looking at recent military history, it will take many months for the Russians and Syrians to retake a city that was lost in about 48 hours.
Even in the worst case scenario for Hezbollah, it's notable that Ansarallah has had major success despite being physically cut off from the rest of the Resistance and under a blockade, and it has defeated the US Navy in its attempts to open up the strait. Israel has confirmed now that their army cannot even make significant territorial gains versus a post-Nasrallah, post-pager terrorist attack Hezbollah holding back its missile strike capabilities. In 2006, it also could not defeat a much less well-armed Hezbollah and was forced to retreat from Lebanon.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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The dooming on Hexbear whenever major geopolitical events happen is crazy
Forgive me if I don't condemn Russia/China/Iran/etc for not dropping everything to go save Assad of all people
I mean, lots of people are going to have their lives upended. It’s not something to joke about.
In the face of rampant US imperialism, the Global Majority needs to get their shit together (especially the countries who have the actual means and resources to fight back) or else the empire will continue to wreak havoc on the world.
Most of us here are probably just spectators (at least so far) but there are people who will have to live with the consequences.
Yeah, Syria could easily turn into Libya 2.0 with competing factions at the helm. That would be disastrous. Jolani being the majority decision maker does not fill me with hope, to put it mildly.
To me this recent rebel offensive serves two purposes. The first, to cut off Hezbollah from Iran so that they cannot re-arm during the ceasefire. The second, to try force Russia into a two front war and draw their attention away from Ukraine. I think you were the first to point that out.
The first purpose suits Israel, Turkey, and the anti Hezbollah Lebanese factions well. The second purpose is almost the Kursk gamble on steroids, and just like with Kursk, Russia is not going to "take the bait" and shift significant resources from Ukraine, at least for now. The problem is, unlike in Kursk where the Russian army was able to contain the offensive, the SAA is not capable of holding territory for any significant amount of time. So if Russia really want to keep Assad in power, they are going to have to shift a significant amount of military resources to do so.
There are several users in this thread with family in Syria, and I know that we have several Palestinian users as well, so there are some directly feeling the effects of all this.
Being spectators is why I'm not making sweeping predictions or condemnations about events that haven't even fully happened.
I mean, what gets posted on Hexbear is ultimately irrelevant, but you know.
I mean, lots of people are going to have their lives upended. It’s not something to joke about.
You don't get it at all. Admitting you're wrong and changing your mind is not possible. Admitting reality, the suffering, the death and destruction is like admitting defeat therefore pretty much impossible for some people.
Some people are desperate to treat geopolitics as sports. let them. We're far beyond the realm of analysis now. Its just sports ball shit which side you're on, excuse don't you dare criticize my hero shit.
I honestly don't really give a shit about Assad and I don't think anybody here is getting ready to mourn him if he gets got, the actual issue is the potential isolation of Lebanon from Iran.
I'm less anxious than others here though; drone warfare is the future and they're much easier to produce and transport than missiles, so even in a dysfunctional and nominally isolated country, Hezbollah could continue to function and oppose Israel competently. I mean, fucking Hamas somehow manages to produce weaponry capable of destroying/substantially damaging the best tanks Israel can produce, and they're in a concentration camp that's regularly bombed. I'm sure Hezbollah can manage a similar feat in a much bigger country and with much longer borders.
I think it would become more difficult for Hezbollah but at least to my ignorant mind the idea that they will be completely cut off from any access to weapons sounds too pessimistic. Some people here are already spelling the end of Hezbollah is a bit too premature.
if you put 20 millions syrians having war returning to them and balkanisation to look forward and the axis of resitance crumbling under "assad of all people
" ,your just to deeply unserious to "do" ...
They forget that it will cause further destabilization in the middle east and europe, like its not stable inducing for countries to fall and be balkanized
curtailing my posting because I am disappointed with most of the hexbear takes on most things in the past month or two, if I wanted garbage takes I'd be on heckin reddit
A decent portion of people on Hexbear seem to uncritically accept CIA outlets as fact. They get that cops lie but not that the State Department does the same thing, I guess. It's a little frustrating because it happens every fucking time anything of significance happens here.
I will say that it's probably a fairly small portion of users doing it, it's just sticks out when it happens. Could even be
, who knows^
Agreed, but even in the forbidden subreddit times people cheered or doomed for the protests in Venezuela/Cuba/Bolivia.
To be fair this is Russia's fault primarily. They signed the deal with Turkey which effectively left idlib in the hands of rebels. Assad was against this, but Russia forced the deal snd refused to support Syria in an idlib offensive, just so they can improve relations with Turkey.
Assad's government is the connective tissue of the Axis of Resistance. If it falls, then the Axis of Resistance is broken. Hezbollah will follow, and then Hamas, and then Ansarallah. Then Iran will be all alone and isolated for when the US turns its eyes to them.
This isn't about "saving Assad" it's about letting the US and Israel win a battle that has been ongoing for decades and readying the Middle East for the expansion of Israel into Greater Israel.
Yeah the Axis of Resistance is the only political Islamist project that can be said to be broadly anti imperialist. Almost all of the other political Islamist projects have been in service of imperialism since the post WW2 era. Look at the support the USA gave Saudi Arabia and Pakistan since then, and even now Saudi Arabia is a key player and the CIA removed the leader of Pakistan from power once he showed signs of leaving the imperialist project. HTS is just another example of such an organisation, doing the dirty work for Israel and West/NATO. You even have ex Mossad guys saying on live TV interviews that Al Qaeda never targeted Israel, and that they'd give Al-Nusra tactical support. Losing the only political Islamic project that is anti imperialist would be disastrous.
An old piece from 2007, by Samir Amin on political Islam in service of imperialism
If it falls, then the Axis of Resistance is broken.
I haven't seen enough to think this is true. The rebels are still generally anti-American, Russia seems to think they'll be able to establish a relationship if Assad falls. The borders will likely remain porous enough for Iran to send arms. Even if that isn't the case, Iran has other means to send aid to the rest of the resistance, and they are not solely dependent on Iranian aid.
This is what I mean by dooming, Assad's government might collapse and people like you start saying the entire resistance is over
The rebels are still generally anti-American
No they are not lol, they are American proxies. They are trained and armed by Turkey (NATO) and in Al Tanf (American military base). They are pro-Israel. One of the primary purposes of this entire "revolution" is to stop these weapon transfers to Hezbollah through the "porous" border which is only porous for Iranian weapon shipments because the Syrian government makes it so. HTS's first action is going to be to shut down these routes, it's the reason for their existence and funding.
Russia seems to think they'll be able to establish a relationship if Assad falls
I've seen one telegram speculating about this, that's it. And if it's true Russia is stupid beyond belief.
This is what I mean by dooming, Assad's government might collapse and people like you start saying the entire resistance is over
Hezbollah has been forced into agreeing to a ceasefire that undermines all their war objectives, ie they were defeated strategically despite their tactical victories in pushing the Israelis out of Lebanon for quite some time. They are already on the brink of destruction, in great peril of losing grip of their position and being surrounded by enemies on all sides. Losing their major ally on their border and it turning into pro-Israel jihadists is extremely bad.
I don't really feel like engaging with someone who thinks Hezbollah is on the "brink of destruction." You do you though
Why else would they betray the will of Nasrallah that the struggle of Hezbollah and Gaza be linked? Why else would they agree to a personal ceasefire that does nothing to help Gaza, the stated reason for the conflict and the organization itself?
Do you think Hezbollah was defeated and forced into that position out of regretful necessity? Or do you think they are compromised after the death of Nasrallah and have betrayed the reason for their existence and the cause itself? Cause it’s one of the other, those are the only two explanations for why they would allow the genocide to continue in Gaza while tapping out themselves. The destruction in Beirut and Lebanon in general has put a heavy toll on them and a lot of pressure for peace, the people of Lebanon will not stand for much more. They don't have the commitment to Gaza that Hezbollah does, Hezbollah has to fend off reactionary militias internally as well as Israelis bombing them & soon to be nu-ISIS on their flanks
I could also see them having intel on the upcoming offensives in Syria and putting one conflict on pause to handle another, but we are yet to see major Hezbollah movements into Syria to help out there either. If you have examples otherwise I’m happy to say that is their strategy. And if we do see major moves by Hezbollah into Syria (god willing) then that further proves how important the Syrian government remaining intact is to Hezbollah, they see the Syrian and Lebanon conflicts as linked just as they see Palestine as linked. They will not allow Assad to fall if they can help it because it's an existential issue for them, so what's with your pithy "who gives a fuck about Assad" attitude? THE AXIS OF RESISTANCE AND PALESTINE.
Iran is probably more than anything hunkering down for whatever the US and Israel throw at it and also throwing all resources into their nuclear program.
no they're trying to get a new nuclear deal and trying to appeal to the UN and talking about how they aren't enriching uranium above certain levels, pez is ruining everything with his libshit cowardice
I think the news mega has been wrong about every single dooming so far. But we shall see.
lmaooooo true every time we doom or lathe we're wrong lmao
We need that Inverse Jim Cramer Index but for Hexbear. Any time the predominant narrative is X, guess the opposite of X
What you call dooming I see as mourning, people are giving their lives out there. In the case where they aren't, everything in their life is going to change. Maybe some of us are more in touch with what is happening than others. Like holy fuck, you think Afghanistan falling wasn't fucking terrible for everybody living there?
I don't condemn Russia/China/Iran/etc for not dropping everything to go save Assad of all people
Joke is on you I already lost any expectations of someone who is far more concerned with making deals in Saudi Arabia and shaking Hitler's hand at every opportunity than showing actual solidarity with the global south. Talk left walk right shit works for you? Great, awesome. Both of us will be here years from now lamenting how the genocide keeps going on, how the axis of resistance does nothing but become martyrs.
Here have a
while we nod and agree "China is winning" lol obviously.the US will collapse in 30 days now, trust the plan and don't mind the corpses and destruction around you.
Syria and Assad are invaluable simply due to the fact that Israel and Turkey are separated by it. I think even if he lost most of the desert regions of syria, assad “wouldn’t go”
It's shocking that there are people here that still take western media at face value. That's bonkers
This is more like flossing on the nerds who refused to acknowledge this possibility. Everything realistic about palestine and Syria was heavily censored before today. The time is now to tell the truth.
Palestine was censored before today? What?
Wow you're so smart. We get it already.
this guy is an annoying prick everytime i see him speaking
They got temp banned after venturing out of the news mega and thinking the rest of Hexbear would tolerate their shit.