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Bulletins and News Discussion from June 24th to June 30th, 2024 - Waiting for War - COTW: Lebanon
  • Every nuclear power monitors each others nuclear assets, there is no credible way the US can say Russia launched a nuke without clear evidence corroborated by every other nuclear power. Its not like Iraq WMD where you can hold a picture and say Russia did it, not an actual fake nuclear attack.

    The US certainly wont use that themselves, I think there are hardliners in the actual military that take MAD somewhat seriously and wouldn't dare it. Keep in mind if the US detonates a nuke in Ukraine that may cause Russia to think its under nuclear attack themselves and with a few minutes to make a call and a history of close calls throughout the 20th century, this is could just result in Russia nuking the US. I think there is enough "institutional" knowledge in the US military to know its not worth to sacrifice themselves for their "subjects". Why would the US risk WW3 with Russia to save "temporarily white" Ukrainians?

    Israel is a completely different level because nobody there can retaliate against the US. This has always been the key point.

    So the only alternative is some dirty bomb in Ukraine but Ukraine already tried to attack the ZNPP and at this point they can't do it even if they wanted to. But if somehow they manage to create something with US assistance it still wont move the needle anywhere.

    Russia still has credible deniability, they have no excuse to use a nuke now that they're convincingly winning and even lib mainstream admits it. As for Russian leadership they know they've won the war and its a matter of time now.

    I don't believe there is anything that would force them to escalate except an actual NATO intervention.

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    Bulletins and News Discussion from June 24th to June 30th, 2024 - Waiting for War - COTW: Lebanon
  • The only thing that would achieve is to make EU more racist towards migrants and shit. There is nothing to be gained by anyone for doing this. Also Nordstream happened exactly because it is a strategic asset in a remote area only monitored by military and some government assets and not even completely 100% all the time. At the end of the day nobody even got injured and everyone can happily pretend to look away.

    The idea that the US could use a dirty bomb in a EU capital and potentialy kill 6-7 figures is just on a completely different level of illuminati conspiracy.

  • Featured
    Bulletins and News Discussion from June 24th to June 30th, 2024 - Waiting for War - COTW: Lebanon
  • I don't think liberals care about Ukraine at all anymore.

    Only one thing matters now, the US must not be embarrased again, but this is unlikely in the short term. This is not Afghanistan and Russia will not march onto Kiev and have US diplomats evacuating in a helicopter.

    As long as NATO is not threated they'll just say something like oh we tried but the primitive dumb Ukrainians couldn't even figure out how to launch offensives, also most of them didn't want to fight anyway so they kind of deserve it.

    Everything Trump needs to do is point out the obvious problems with Ukraine

    -Extremely corrupt by EU standards before the war

    -Well known to be run by the same type of oligarchs as Russia next door.

    -Literal Nazis in power.

    -Literaly no elections for 2+ years.

    -Something something Biden's child.

    Of course Trump wont punch right but at this point maybe I'm wrong here but I'm not sure there are many liberals willing to die on the Ukraine is the bastion of freedom and democracy hail Zelensky shit anymore, not in 2025+. That is more like NAFO territory even.

    Perhaps the small pacifists/naive libs pushing for Israel ceasefire are also kind of tired of Ukraine war too because Ukraine doesn't have a goal and refuses to negotiate at all. Russia is smart to start putting their demands already btw.

  • My lib friend, unprompted, posted this bullshit
  • The desperate need to always make analogies just to defend Biden is something else. Analogies should only be used if they add something to make understanding the subject easier. But it also assumes the other side is not intelligent enough to understand the subject in the first place.

    You wouldn't use analogies to explain the newest Quantum mechanics to Einstein. You could use them to introduce them to a person with a poor math/physics background maybe. But at the end you wouldn't assume the person who "kind of gets it" through an analogy to actualy come out knowing about said topic. You teach an analogy to a kid to help, you don't make the analogy the entire subject and replace the actual topic.

    So yeah, all these dipshits using analogies are just saying "hey you pathetic manchild that doesn't understand how democracy is supposed to work, here let me dumb it down for you all why you need to vote for my candidate. So imagine a restaurant menu..."

    What do they expect? A bow and a thank you mr democrat asshole I understand democracy now and will proceed to vote for the person you just told me to. The only response should rather be a punch in their face.

  • What are your predictions on the Trump/Biden debate happening tomorrow?
  • The only thing I care about is I'm 100% sure China will be brought in several topics and

    100% Both candidates will call Xi a dictator.

    100% Both will say the US needs to be tougher on China. Trump will remember his "trade war" and call it a great success. Biden will call the Russia related sanctions a great success and both will promise more.

    100% both will say some lipservice BS about protecting "American jobs" and this is why they need to be more racist.

    60% Trump will say he has a great relationship with Xi Kim because he will mix them up.

    75% Xinjiang or "Chinese slave labor/genocide" will be brought up.

    100% Taiwan support for "democracy" will be mentioned and both will support it unconditionally.

    30% Taiwan independence will be brought up specificaly and if the CPC still got any delusions about avoiding a war for Taiwan this should be their wake up call. There wont be any further excuses when literaly both candidates call and promise to support it.

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    Bulletins and News Discussion from June 17th to June 23rd, 2024 - Macron's Gambit - COTW: France
  • We should be more skeptical towards conspiracy theories. We tend to hold two very conflicting realities at once.

    The neolibs are incredibly incompetent failchildren that can't think further beyond than tonight's dinner. This is why they fail to consider the consequences of their actions obviously, often failing to consider just what will happen 6 months down the line.

    But also they're deeply cunning and tactical minded, coming up with complex theories on how to tackle deep important long term subjects like climate change which they really suddenly give a shit about lol.

  • I increasingly feel like in the west everyone is ideologically "locked in"
  • If you want a rationalization, I don't see this as meaningful other than the modern social media context rewards dunking on each other more than any other interaction. It is a constant struggle between people who just love the self-validation from upvotes/karma/likes and those that have social anxiety over being wrong on the internet. Therefore coming out and converting often have significant personal cost(relationships/self-esteem) that is very hard to overcome unless you already have a support group.

    That doesn't mean people are not moving from one ideology to another or changing their minds, its just that, as you noticed anecdotally people are not sharing that experience anymore.

    That uncle probably realized that even though being a sucdem is far better than anything else in the mainstream, it is not "fullfilling" i.e Bernie is completely onboard with Biden and at this point thinking about Bernie/Dems just funnels you into the current blue-red MAGA.

    Some (one in particular ) openly say it's because they fell like their opponents have consolidated their base and there's nobody reachable anymore.

    Yes that is a great change from 2016, there are definitely more people that are just some streamer/YTer fanboy with no ideology now. Don't mistake those for real politics imo these people are in it for the parasocial relationship, if said random persona suddenly announced he converted to communism they would bring like half their fans along. But again, don't mistake those for real communists either just because said persona pays lipservice to it. Hasan is a good example.

    How many are "socialists" because of Hasan and how many would stay that way if he changed sides? Spoilers I remember he said he would be incredibly more popular if he embraced the right wing grift so there is that anecdote.

    I do agree that as a means of actual movement building and social change this environment pretty much destroyed any hopes of a socialist movement. I don't like the same doomer point over and over but at this point our only prospect is balkanization and climate change. I think the way COVID was handled showed all the bad signs leading to towards the bad ending.

  • What are your most hated sci-fi/fantasy tropes?
  • Somewhat similar concept on a TNG episode New Ground, they test a new warp magic device that creates a warp wave and after a failure they unintentionally discover the wave will destroy most of the planet.

    Build one of these a few light years away from a nearby enemy planet and boom.

  • Hexbears HATE them: This outdoor cat runs a small business!
  • This was the first time they chose to use Cantonese pronunciation rather than Mandarin. Its definitely not the english word gaming, its Gahming, or Jiaming in Mandarin. I think the English localization team just went in on the joke, I don't remember the exact reason. You can google more about it. Here on reddit

    Fandom sucks but that wiki is pretty superior.

    But also I guess rbg gaming probably?

    As a character he is pretty much the strongest 4* so far and apparently CN people realy enjoyed his story quest, though its kind of stereotypical.

  • Pick 1. You will receive a stack of 100 pills
  • Shut down a website for 15 seconds, get fired with cause. Snore like a cartoon tonight. Receive 1 orange mailed to you. Estrogen, cum instantly, cum in 24 hours.

    That seems just like an average day for someone.

  • Locked
    Bulletins and News Discussion from June 17th to June 23rd, 2024 - Macron's Gambit - COTW: France
  • Why would anyone give Biden credit for the supposed autonomous Fed economic policy? The consequences of that policy are obvious here yes, but I don't think anyone is thinking the Fed/Powell would ever take words from either of these idiots.

    Also you severely underestimate Trump's tax cuts, it was the first time Billionaires started paying less than the working class. Now the Dems are campaigning against these cuts and Trump is doubling down. Top 0.01%(Buffet/Musk) don't care but the average petite bourgeoisie definitely cares more about the short term money in their pockets than any "rational" long term analysis about anything, Biden is promising a tax hike.

    The Bush era cuts already cost trillions in lost tax revenue and extending Trump's already going to cost another ~5 trillion

    This is The Economist literally running a pro Trump tax cut propaganda piece recently.

    The increase in those interest payments will be significant for sure, but so are these continuous tax cuts in the long run. I severely doubt Wall Street or the petite bourgeoisie prefers Biden significantly more than Trump, or even at all, they're pretty much the same with pros and cons for them.

    Look at what the capitalists are saying themselves.

    After trial, investors weigh Trump 2.0 factor as election looms

    STOCKS The S&P 500 rose 68% through Trump’s first term, which was marked by tax cuts and infrastructure spending as well as a trade war with China and the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The benchmark index is up 38% so far under Biden.

    An analysis by LPL Financial on Friday showed the S&P 500, which is up about 9% year-to-date, has risen alongside Trump’s election odds this year, as measured by betting site Predictit. At the same time, Biden's election odds have remained negatively correlated to the S&P 500 since February, the study showed. Some investors believe a second Trump term could be supportive for equities, especially if Trump is able to avert tax hikes promised by Biden. Much would depend on the makeup of Congress.

    "In a Trump administration with a divided Congress or with a Republican clean sweep, we can say, a corporate tax hike is off the table," said Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group.

    A second Trump White House would also seek to reduce the power of U.S. financial regulators, according to a Reuters report. That could be another positive for stocks, especially small cap companies, which may find it more expensive to comply with regulatory requirements, wrote Stephen Auth, chief investment officer, equities at Federated Hermes.

    Also they think interest rates could be even higher under Trump.

    Trump’s tax proposals “would be a big drain on revenues, and I think the bond market wouldn’t react well to that," said John Velis, FX and macro strategist for the Americas at BNY Mellon. Inflation and fiscal expansion could lead the Fed to raise interest rates, another path to higher yields, analysts at Nomura said.

    "Between elevated U.S. interest rates and tariffs, a Trump presidency could very well keep the dollar stronger for longer," said Jonathan Petersen, senior markets economist at Capital Economics.

    Most of these wealthy failsons are literal manchildren that can only think about the next quarter profit and their bank accounts. Trump delivered a lot where it mattered to them and he is promising more. My take is they're both at best equal.

  • Putin has secretly turned every black American online into Russian disinformation agents and that's why Biden might lose the election
  • IMO both things are true. Yes she won the popular vote undeniably, however that doesn't excuse her disastrous campaign, most of the time Trump would not have been even close and the electoral college issue is something they as Adults In The Roomtm should have taken into account when propping up Trump. At this point it is all academic debate anyway, like going back and looking at what they did wrong etc.

    The point is yes she won, but it should not have been that close and it wasn't an upset or unlikely result, it is now understood it was just their incompetence overall.

    The same thing is happening right now too, Biden should be far more popular than Trump under almost every scenario except for the fact Dems keep making incredibly dumb decisions, almost as if they don't want to win...

  • Nato in talks to put nuclear weapons on standby
  • We have absolutely no idea how nuclear warfare and fallout will interact with the already unstoppable climate change trend. Maybe its just me but IMO those old theories about how someone in New Zealand is going to survive in a bunker is just extreme copium, borderline delusion.

  • Brackeys(Former biggest Unity tutorial channel on YT) is back and is now focused on Godot.

    A long endorsement of open source software before announcing he will be making Godot tutorials now.

    Might be a good incentive to switch or try out game dev if you're new btw.

    11
    Is Victoria 3 a Marxist simulator?

    >I prefers the term of Dialectical Materialism simulator.

    >It’s a fantasy game for closet commies, as HOI IV is for closet Nazis or Wehraboos in the end

    I'm not bothering to read much of this(500 comments?), but after a few minutes quick glance its the usual fairly above average positive response as usual.

    I wonder if it is because with the game becoming less popular again most of the mainstream is gone already.

    21
    Huawei and Bird & Bird win patent lawsuit against Amazon in Germany
    www.juve-patent.com Huawei and Bird & Bird successful against Amazon in dispute over wifi routers

    Munich Regional Court rules Amazon may no longer sell its own wifi routers in Germany that infringe a Wifi 6 patent from Huawei.

    Huawei and Bird & Bird successful against Amazon in dispute over wifi routers

    >22 December 2023 >Amazon may no longer sell its own wifi routers in Germany, as they infringe a Wifi 6 patent from Huawei. This was decided by Munich Regional Court last week following the oral hearing. The ruling does not affect the sale of third-party wifi routers via the Amazon platform.

    >Two European subsidiaries of Amazon and Eero – a manufacturer of wifi routers also owned by Amazon – have infringed European patent EP 3334112 and may now no longer sell Wifi-6-capable products in Germany. The Regional Court Munich handed down this ruling on December 15, on the same day as the hearing.

    >Huawei had sued for injunctive relief, information and accounting, destruction, recall and damages (case ID: 7 O 10988/22).

    >However, the ruling only affects wifi routers that Amazon and Eero manufacture themselves, such as the Amazon Fire TV Stick 4k. Other manufacturers may continue to sell their products via the Amazon platform.

    >Potential damages >Huawei can enforce the judgment against a security deposit totaling €4.5 million. Amazon may appeal against the judgment, and this is considered likely. However, the court has not justified its surprisingly quick decision in writing yet. According to JUVE Patent information Amazon has not yet filed an appeal.

    >If the ruling stands, Amazon would have to compensate Huawei for the damages it has suffered since 19 March 2020. According to JUVE Patent information, Amazon has not thus far filed a nullity action against EP 112, but has concentrated on the FRAND defence.

    >Four claims against Amazon >The judgment is part of a larger dispute over Wifi 6 patents. Huawei has also sued Amazon over another Wifi 6 patent in Munich (case ID: 7 O 10987/22). The court will hear this case in March 2024. In Düsseldorf and Munich, Huawei sued Amazon over a Wifi 5 patent, but the courts have not yet set a date for the oral hearing.

    >Huawei is also taking action against Fritzbox manufacturer AVM with two infringement suits at the Regional Court Munich. In November, according to press reports the court ordered AVM to cease and desist. The court was of the opinion that Wifi-6-capable AVM products infringed Huawei’s EP 3 337 077. AVM has since appealed against the ruling.

    >In addition, Huawei sued other companies such as Netgear and automotive group Stellantis. The Chinese company sued the former at Düsseldorf Regional Court. Huawei sued Stellantis back in 2022 over mobile phone patents that play a role in car connectivity. The Netherlands-based company manufactures about six million cars a year under the Fiat, Opel, Peugeot and Citroën brands.

    >Huawei turns to UPC >While Huawei only sued Amazon and AVM in German patent courts, the Chinese company escalated its dispute with Netgear to the Unified Patent Court in July. Previously, Huawei had not had much success at Düsseldorf Regional Court. The court had dismissed one of Huawei’s lawsuits and suspended the second.

    >Huawei’s lawsuit at the Munich local division was one of the first SEP proceedings at the new court (case ID: ACT_459771/2023). According to the website www.upc.beetz.nl Netgear recently has filed a counter claim of revocation with the UPC.

    Where are the "but but ze seeseepee only steals our technology!111!!" responses now lol.

    0
    Why This Election Is the Most Crucial Since the Civil War
    www.thedailybeast.com Why This Election Is the Most Crucial Since the Civil War

    Matt Bennett, co-founder of national think-tank Third Way, tells The New Abnormal why a second Trump presidency would be a “catastrophe” and leave America “unrecognizable.”

    Why This Election Is the Most Crucial Since the Civil War

    !

    r/politics

    >“It seems like every cycle we say that and we kind of mean it but this time I think we are in a category change where I believe the United States and the way that we think about ourselves as a nation has not been in danger like this since 1865. I think the only comparable moment to this was the Civil War,” he tells The New Abnormal co-host Danielle Moodie.

    69
    Anyone remember Brackeys YT channel? Good thing they left at the top lol.

    Being a Unity tutorial maker in 2023 sounds like pain right now lol.

    I do have to say the joker part is a bit silly, I've used Unity before as a hobbyist and Unity Engine is fine IMO, more than fine even compared to the alternatives. Every engine has problems, pick the right tool for the job.

    Unity Technologies, the piece of shit company is the problem.

    7
    Science lady doubles down: "Capitalism is deregulation actually!"

    Jesus fucking lol and it is so funny considering she literally talks about Marx and the industrial revolution and dismisses it, like please which is it?

    How can you be so fundamentally wrong holy shit, I was skeptical when the other thread compared her with Peterson or whatever but boy oh boy this is the worst way possible to double down.

    Just how hard is it to just own it, say some obviously fake PR shit like "oh we learned a lesson from the feedback of our community and we will do better in the future" or "we understand we should have approached the topic with a little more rigor" or something.

    I fully admit I was willing to let her take this L as a fluke, something something her "team"(maybe even herself) suggested a bad topic and the minions can't afford to tell her that was a bad idea or something, but no.

    I can't wait for the triple down I guess. Even the replies are still roasting her lol.

    27
    The "Chinese secret police station" was actually a community service center for Chinese immigrants.
    documentedny.com After FBI Arrests, Chinatown Leaders Deny 'Secret Police Station' Allegations - Documented

    The FBI has arrested two Chinese agents allegedly tied to a secret police station in NYC the Chinese government used to keep tabs on dissidents.

    After FBI Arrests, Chinatown Leaders Deny 'Secret Police Station' Allegations - Documented

    Literally spy balloon 2.0. This time a community center for helping immigrants with government paperwork is actually a secret spy agency.

    > He clarified that it was a police overseas service station, which was different from an actual police station. According to him, no police officers from China had visited their office and the association was focused on helping Chinese citizens renew and complete forms.

    > Jimmy Lu explained that during the pandemic, many Chinese immigrants were unable to travel back to China due to restrictions. To aid them, the association collaborated with the local police station in Fuzhou to remotely assist immigrants in renewing their Chinese driver’s licenses, as well as other necessary documents.

    >Jimmy Lu said that the association offered its office as a venue for Chinese immigrants to have virtual meetings with police officers in China. The staff at the association also assisted in measuring the applicants’ vision and weight to ensure their driver’s license information was up-to-date. The association informed Chinese-language media in NYC when establishing the police service station in 2022. In a picture the association shared with the press, Harry Lu, Jinping Chen and other leaders of the organization sat in front of a desk with a banner hanging on the wall that said, “Fuzhou Police Overseas Service Station.”

    >To coincide with the time zone in China, the office operated at 9:30 p.m. every Thursday from February to September 2022, helping more than 120 Chinese immigrants renew their driver’s licenses, Jimmy Lu said. Federal prosecutors say the police station was closed in the fall of 2022 after those operating it became aware of the FBI’s investigation.

    I also absolutely love that part, the super duper secret police station is so secret that they checks notes gave the media a photo of them in front of a sign that says "Fuzhou Police Overseas Service Station".

    0
    "Group seen celebrating Hitler's birthday in central Taiwan"
    www.taiwannews.com.tw Group seen celebrating Hitler's birthday in central Taiwan | Taiwan News | 2023-04-25 11:14:00

    Diners pose with flags of the German Reich, Nazi Black Sun | 2023-04-25 11:14:00

    It begins.

    "Ackshualy that's not a swastica, you see back in Asia they have these symbols..." :maybe-later-honey:

    0
    "If we measure excess mortality over England’s 16th- and 17th-century average death rate, we find 165 million excess deaths in India between 1880 and 1920."

    For the next time some dipshit lib tries to argue with you about owning a fucking microwave. Jason Hickel is a beast.

    >The common notion that extreme poverty is the “natural” condition of humanity and only declined with the rise of capitalism rests on income data that do not adequately capture access to essential goods.

    >Data on real wages suggests that, historically, extreme poverty was uncommon and arose primarily during periods of severe social and economic dislocation, particularly under colonialism.

    >The rise of capitalism from the long 16th century onward is associated with a decline in wages to below subsistence, a deterioration in human stature, and an upturn in premature mortality.

    >In parts of South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, wages and/or height have still not recovered.

    >Where progress has occurred, significant improvements in human welfare began only around the 20th century. These gains coincide with the rise of anti-colonial and socialist political movements.

    >Abstract

    >The evidence we review here points to three conclusions.

    >(1) It is unlikely that 90% of the human population lived in extreme poverty prior to the 19th century. Historically, unskilled urban labourers in all regions tended to have wages high enough to support a family of four above the poverty line by working 250 days or 12 months a year, except during periods of severe social dislocation, such as famines, wars, and institutionalized dispossession – particularly under colonialism.

    >(2) The rise of capitalism caused a dramatic deterioration of human welfare. In all regions studied here, incorporation into the capitalist world-system was associated with a decline in wages to below subsistence, a deterioration in human stature, and an upturn in premature mortality. In parts of South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, key welfare metrics have still not recovered.

    >(3) Where progress has occurred, significant improvements in human welfare began several centuries after the rise of capitalism. In the core regions of Northwest Europe, progress began in the 1880s, while in the periphery and semi-periphery it began in the mid-20th century, a period characterized by the rise of anti-colonial and socialist political movements that redistributed incomes and established public provisioning systems.

    Overall this is an amazing paper, I recommend reading in full to debunk so much common shit about colonial capitalism.

    Also there is an excess death chart for Africa, overall 1880-1920 saw a total 20% population decline.

    Also

    >Indian life expectancy did not reach the level of early modern England (35.8 years) until 1950, after decolonization.

    1
    "The sharp rise in Violent/Aggressive Discourse in the Extreme Left is an artifact of the inclusion of Hexbear.net."

    :yes-hahaha-yes-l:

    :sicko-hexbear:

    Otherwise gee fucking idiots I guess you realy needed a whole research department to figure things out like

    >•Alt-Right supergroup activity remains near its all-time high. This activity has been high since the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago in August (Fig. 1).

    >•The forums with the greatest use of Violent/Aggressive discourse in November were in Health Misinformation, scoring higher than Incels/Femcels and the Extreme Right (Fig. 7).

    >•Reference to sex crimes was up 13% in December and was up 32% since August (Fig. 11).

    :the-democrat: reading this : "Great, its all according to the plan. Carry on mrMcdoofus, keep us informed, this is very useful information, it will come in handy when we decide to do absolutely nothing for the next 2 years."

    137
    Top Tibetan leader says Dalai Lama's 'suck my tongue' comment to a boy was 'innocent' because the holy leader is 'beyond sensorial pleasures'
    www.insider.com Top Tibetan leader says Dalai Lama's 'suck my tongue' comment to a boy was 'innocent' because the holy leader is 'beyond sensorial pleasures'

    Penpa Tsering, the head of the Tibetan government-in-exile, defended the Dalai Lama, calling his actions "innocent," according to CNN.

    Top Tibetan leader says Dalai Lama's 'suck my tongue' comment to a boy was 'innocent' because the holy leader is 'beyond sensorial pleasures'

    Watch as both MSM and the CIA still trying to spin this shit even though most people even on fucking reddit of all places are grossed out by the story.

    7
    InitialsDiceBearhttps://github.com/dicebear/dicebearhttps://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/„Initials” (https://github.com/dicebear/dicebear) by „DiceBear”, licensed under „CC0 1.0” (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/)BY
    BynarsAreOk [none/use name] @hexbear.net
    Posts 14
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