China stopped publishing the official youth unemployment rate last year when it hit the record high and then they started publishing again with a new metric that excludes college students(use your own judgement on why). It was fluctuating between 13-21% between 2022-2023 and is now back at 17.6%.

This was discussed in brief by Michael Roberts on his China's Third Plenun summary overall mostly positive data except in exactly this area, or you can read something like Sixth Tone's reporting

You can compare the World Bank data estimate here I picked some countries, also here they use other official sources.

Is it that bad? but it is about on par with the worst EU countries(Italy, Sweden, Spain), generally higher than the EU average and generally far higher than Japan and Korea.

US is listed at 10% but fuck if US data is reliable at all. For what is worth its getting worse for some countries too UK is nearing COVID high, US is highest since 2021 etc.

Obviously Chinese economic growth, poverty reduction and wage growth are all far higher so its not to say that "oh Chinese youth are afraid of living in the slums" or something, at all. But I wouldn't be surprised if the COVID era effects still being felt.

Even if the tide rises all boats there is social anxiety from being afraid of being left behind or taking the back seat. IMO understanding material conditions leads to things like crime is the most obvious thing surely, understanding why white cis male chuds do school shootings doesn't mean you approve it.

CPC taking notes.

The consequences of applying what they've learned, look away. Consolation prize is Russia joined them with the same very common L too. Piece of shit BRICS grifters.

The issue is not really dedollarization here, there is no need to fixate on that.

Rather the fact this is further signs of Chinese integrating with western capital at the most critical juncture.

The part about Saudi Arabia trying to pivot into some sort of Hong Kong 2.0 is accurate as its one of the ways they hope to survival the oil crash. It is also part of the ME own internal struggle between the oil exporters to see who comes out on top. OPEC is doing production cuts and Oil is once again at the 2 year low. Saudi Arabia is rather trying survive by pivoting into financial speculation, putting it in competition with the UAE for example.

As reported 2 billion is quite literally nothing in the grand scheme so why bother at all? Because it signals a complete Chinese compromise with the western consensus. Its China being absurdly simplistic and trying to secure their own slice of the pie.

Major financial corporations are all moving to Riyadh's financial center, just this year there is Goldman Sachs which was the first significant Wall St player just barely last month, HSBC, Rothschild. Even the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is opening a new office there. You can probably make a long list soon.

So both Chinese and the Western capital see the potential of Saudi Arabia realy becoming a financial hub(or simply don't want to miss it) and China wants to secure good relations before its completely bought out by US interests. Yes they are that naive. Heck in this instance I'd go even further and saying there is absolutely acting as if their married to the devil. If they weren't what would explain to us their previous deals and investments in Israel during the 2010's and even earlier?

Its quite the epitome of trying constantly pandering about being an alternative to US imperialism and denouncing western crimes while simultaneously happily making deals with the worst enemies of the global south.

It is as bad as it sounds.

Promising to build more ports so that the same fascists farmers can export even more soybeans to China is definitely going to be one of the electoral strategies of all times.

In order of most likely/immidiate:

Invade Mexico to secure the border and fight the cartel, in reality just an excuse to round up everyone who doesn't speak English in a Guantanamo 2.0 right on the border while doing the same on random Mexican schools and bars/markets "owned by the cartel" or some shit.

Next if somehow US goes to war with China you can absolutely expect Asian concentration camps.

Then inevitably I don't see the US surviving climate change without doing the whole "cleaning the cities" first. At first it will be homeless and drug addicts. Then it will be LGBTQ and in the end it will be camps for climate migrants between states e.g Florida.

Not sure how reliable that is given the pretty much apocalyptic dead internet era we're living in specially now during the AI boom.

What exactly is twitter offering when everyone knows its full of bots already? When a significant amount of clout seekers often posting AI content too.

Twitter isn't dead, but the reason advertisers left in the first place isn't going to change overnight. Yes you can quote some random consultant's speculation but this is more than likely the usual political speculation libs love to do rather than meaningful analysis of the economic situation.

Its almost as if they're not talking about the US where lobbying is legal, if advertisers care so much then can pay congress for what they want already and if staying on twitter was profitable at all they would not have left. Its not clear why the speculation this will change overnight, it seems more like lib moral panic for me.

I disagree entirely by your reasoning Bolton would still be there.

We all know Trump isn't just incompetent but extremely egotistical and he is already significantly older and probably not that far off from Biden's coginitive decline.

Essentialy while some standard neocon might get in right now there is realy no reason to indicate this will be sustained for 4 years let alone to believe Trump was already planning around "neocons" having power as a compromise.

I doubt Trump even understands neoconservatism and neoliberalism.

Remember Hinkle here is the near perfect duplicate of Tucker Carlson blasting Trump for escalating with Iran. Only obviously Hinkle is far less influential. But if MAGA substantialy opposes this(for the dumbest reasons) its very likely Trump will flip flop.

I think this is the whole thesis why Trump was even considered possibly a better alternative. There is a very specific narrative angle where MAGA stands completely opposite to neoconservatism and that is Russia as an ally of white supremacy. In general neocons pushing the old Bush era war is entirely against this idea the US even got "allies" outside the liberal sphere in the first place. MAGA fundamentaly can't reconcile having shit EU libs or turbo NATO heads as allies or even having the idea they're the ones in charge.

Democrats and Biden made sure to ally themselves with neocons as Biden made sure to praise NATO and Israel, reminding us how much he loves it every god damn press meeting during the election.

Bad news specially if as predicted Brazil fucks themselves as Lula's government is about to do with cutting social programs right before the crucial pre-'26 election cycle. Once Brazil is compromised BRICS will have no influence in the region, questionable as it already is since Cuba being a new "partner" member is not relevant yet.

Currently a big struggle within the Brazilian government along with massive progressive/left wing parties and unions pushing back. Its not even a victory to make things better which is the shit part, its always the usual fight to stop neoliberal ghouls from making things worse and in this case a completely suicidal blow to Lula's re-election chances.

Cuba made the "partners" shortlist and these are not members yet(if ever), right now its not clear if partners get anything at all besides a membership card and a meme Putin coin even.

The way which they massively overuse bullet points and single paragraph sections , omg its so obviously AI its sad.

Kind of shocking to see this from a huge msm site like this because it reads worse than some random wordpress blog post from 2008 about [insert trending hobby here]. Its not just obviously AI, its made and edited by someone that quite clearly doesn't give a shit too. AI is shit but you can get chatgpt to tell you something that isn't 20 paragraphs and 2 bullet point sections.

I was here since the beginning but this is not my original account. What made HB unique to me is it was that time where this is the only place that had a concretly reasonable and different view about China and other AES countries. There were some other places like Genzedong(only a lurker there) but it was banned and it since died.

I've seen a lot of struggle sessions about that, first it was China, I particularly remember some random person willing to die on a hill that China's handling of terrorism in Xinjiang was just like the state police apparatus resembling post 9/11 America.

But 2022 was realy funny, the epic struggle session over why would Putin suddenly do this to smol bean innocent Ukraine. Again this was the only place I knew which we were even discussing about having a different opinion from the western consensus.

I think the way which we handled the Gaza genocide, again one of the few places that isn't scared of the MSM narrative or afraid to fight Zionism.

I think when it comes to the real world issues we mostly eventualy found the correct majority opinion on things that matter. If at any point I felt these positions would've been different from mine I would've probably left already.

When it comes to China I think the near constant unironic Xi posting was a bit too much for me personaly specialy. 2020-22 were great years and I would be right there 100% agreeing with this as Xi is definitely a great leader, will be remembered as a key and historically important figure, undeniably.

But the decision making that led to that horrible stupid meeting with Hitler in the middle of the genocide and their similar timid stance against Israel is the closest I've come to a serious disagreement with some people here that obviously love unironic shallow pro-CPC-Xi meme posting. As such 2023-24 are horrible years imo.

But otherwise I don't see a reason why I'd ever leave. We'll see how this community handles China in the future, for both ourselves and the future of socialism I hope the CPC wont continue with this shitty timid conciliatory stance towards the west as the world continues to burn and the ropes tighten.

Neolibs still want to preserve the "rules based order" in a more literal sense. Neocons want the American Empire and are not afraid to admit it. Neolibs also want it, but tend to believe this is achievable or even already achieved through the liberal world institutions and "globalization"(Marxist imperialism). Wars are not inherently good, despite being profitable, it must not be the first solution and/or it must be justified through these liberal institutions.

So in comparison, neolibs actualy believed in end of history, there are no more true enemies and everyone will eventualy accept the market or bend to economic interests e.g what they believed about China.

Neocons believe that is not enough or not yet and America must continue to fight their strategic enemies. They always saw China and Russia as key strategic enemies where the only solution is domination, they're very open about continuing with the Cold war mentality despite Russia's defeat.

When looking at a Trump government I think he wont be able to just impose his neocon idiot wishes without some pushback.

For example the current US military buildup against China is definitely a neocon initiative. Neolibs go along with it because they dare not confront the MIC but they also believe they can dominate China economicaly see CHIPS act, Yellen/Blinken going to China to threaten them with economic consequences and tell them they're wrong. They believe they can outcompete China but first China must play "fair" i.e become a western style economy based on consumption.

Neocons instead want war and real containment no matter the cost. So Trump will have to deal with a lot of western CEOs and investors that understand a significant part of their profits come from China. Neolibs want to contain China but don't necessarily agree with a full war, even more so US illegitimate aggression. Its why Taiwan is the "key", its the bait.

To give a better example, Musk loves Trump but he will also go to China and praise China. Why?

His second trip to the country in less than a year included a meeting Sunday with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who praised Tesla as a “successful model” for US-China collaboration.

Because he understands China was one of his biggest market. Neolibs don't want to face the real consequences of a global war and global crisis. Money talks.

For neocons it doesn't matter as much as building the American Empire, an eye for an eye as long as the US wins in Asia it will be worth it, they fear to be missing the opportunity.

Sanctions on BRICS already exist and they'll continue regardless.

I think for now many of the social media/mil bloggers are saying the war will continue and Trump is mostly shit. Here Yuri Podolyak https://t.me/yurasumy/19005 Google TL

Will President Trump Achieve "Peace in Ukraine": Positions of the Parties and the Experience of the DPRK...

Back during his election campaign, then presidential candidate Donald Trump said that he would quickly solve the problem of Ukraine and stop this war. And now he is the president and, as they used to say in my youth, "you have to answer for your words." And so, already yesterday, the future key figures of his administration began to carefully test the waters in this direction, making various statements about their vision of solving the "Ukrainian problem." If we isolate the main thing, then they understand it like this - freezing the conflict on the current front line, temporary non-acceptance of Ukraine as a member of NATO, peacekeepers in the buffer zone. In essence, the Trump administration is offering Russia yet another Minsk agreement. We already know the price of such "agreements."

This is actually a respite before pumping Ukraine with NATO weapons in large quantities and, in the future, another attempt at revenge in our generation. Meanwhile, yesterday at Valdai, our president, answering questions about Ukraine, once again threw his vision of solving this problem to the other side. The West must accept Russia's new borders. Moreover, given that the war continues and the "front is dynamic", other possible expressions of war by citizens (if any) must also be taken into account in the future agreement. Also, literally the day before, it was once again emphasized that the remaining demands - neutral status, disarmament and denazification of the remnants of Ukraine ... are not discussed. This must be part of the agreement.

Thus, we see that the positions of the parties (the US and Russia) on the issue of peace in Ukraine are still very different. And I would also like to remind you here that during his last term, Donald Trump already promised to "quickly resolve" the DPRK problem. And he really did it very actively and demonstratively. Only in the end, he was unable to reach a real agreement, and the DPRK is now a reliable ally of Russia.

But are you hyped for the Chinese century?

All it takes is for Trump to be mildly friendly towards China.

The DPRK deal is a sign Russia is confident they can go on this war for the long term, including the fact they're potentialy agreeing to pivoting to Asia if necessary it would be stupid then to compromise on a war they're massively winning right now.

Also keep in mind there are people further right from Putin that would seriously threaten the government if they fumble this war.

didn't have support because he was seen as an idiot, selfish who was threatning the war goals with his petty shit. No matter the popular grievances against the MOD/military incompetence at the time, the bigger picture will always win.

But Putin taking some shitty deal right now is definitely going to be the wrong move that puts his own credibility on the line, you can't talk about "denazification" or even dog whistle about conquest and then turn around and take this sort of compromise, not right now anyway.

I'm sorry dude, but please understand that the entire left, not just PT got absolutely crushed during the mayoral elections. If you know even some spanish I realy recommend turn on the auto subtitles and watch Jones Manoel(historian, Marxist-Lenist), here just on the first 5 minutes Jones Manoel analyzes the direction of the left in Brazil after the elections

And you'll look at the results, one worse than the other, on the one hand, on the other, in the Brazilian northeast, there is a myth that the Northeast is progressive, that the Northeast is left-wing, that the Northeast is the barrier against fascism. In the Brazilian northeast, of the capitals, the extreme right only didn't win two: Recife and Fortaleza, the extreme right and the traditional right, right? And even so, in Recife, you can't call João Campos left-wing, right? We can develop this better, but this way it's not a one.

In the northeast there was a huge advance in the traditional right and the far right with some very striking results, for example, Bruno Reis managed to be reelected in the first round with an overwhelming vote, being the fifth term of the PT in Bahia, right? The government, Bahia is 20 years old. You see, and the third striking fact that we can't ignore is the result of the election in Porto Alegre and São Paulo, right? Rio Grande do Sul.

In the 103 largest cities in Brazil, where is the center of the political and economic population dynamics, what was the result? Left slash center left only won 10 city halls. The far right and the right won 93, it's 93 to 10. You know, this is like making a football metaphor of losing to 7 to 1. Oh, I scored a goal, but we conceded seven. You see, 9 to 1 is actually the far right and the right won in 93 cities. Of the 103 largest cities in Brazil, which concentrate the majority of the population's GDP, you see.

And then if we go making the cut by capitals the situation doesn't improve I was here with the data it's easy but I ended up losing it I found capitals There are 26 capitals right the PSD took five the MDB took five União Brasil took four the PL took four PP took two Podemos took two PT PSB Forward Republicans one of each When you will see the division in the 26 capitals there are 13 governed by the extreme right 2 by the left slash center left and 11 by the right and center right

it is worth saying one thing that is fundamental it is worth saying one thing see the president Luís Inácio Lula da Silva remained oblivious to the campaign knowing that it was Rota and admitting his very low capacity to transfer votes he was left out of the Municipal campaign so the government already admits that the President of the Republic does not have the capacity to effectively transfer votes and withdrew from the dispute so as not to stick the defeat to the presidency itself I think this says a lot about the direction of this so whoever calls this a Victory is deceiving themselves

Ok so its not just about economics even though its what we talk about here.

The main issue stems from the Dilma coup, the neoliberal governments since 2016 until now including Lula 2.0(Lula 1 in some ways and certainly Dilma were already neolibs but I digress). Among all the usual austerity measures is the most important one, the Constitutional Amendment of the Public Expenditure Cap.

This is the key the underlines any Brazilian government since 2016 and is the main issue the left and Lula needed to fight in order to not lose again.

This budget cap is one of the most insane pieces of legislation anywhere in the world. It mandates a 20 year freeze on spending. It does not recognize Brazil as a third world country that needs disproportionaly higher social spenditure to "catch up".

But the key is it is incompatible with the long established constitutional mandated healthcare and education spending floor. Currently Brazil has a mandated floor of 15% and 18% for each.

So why both of these matter? The attack is currently coming together almost as if perfectly timed to coincide with the leftist in power. Its not like this is new though, from the beginning 8 years ago everyone knew eventualy the healthcare and education spending floor would be attacked.

The neoliberal financial market is currently attacking through high interest rates and inflation fearmongering and the left/Lula government is capitulating. Brazil looks at curbing health, education spending in fiscal package, sources say.

Government austerity means cutting social programs, worst case scenario perhaps even significantly gutting the public healthcare system(SUS). Ultimately this is political suicide. The left will be absolutely crushed in 2026 as the left was already completely crushed during the latest mayoral elections last month.

It is a warning that the Worker's Party doesn't care. The Brazilian mainstream left got a serious Lula worship problem. It realy is TINA but its clear from the recent elections this will be a crushing defeat.

Economically the bigger picture it means several things including the future prospect of a complete victory of the financial rentier capital class over the still relatively strong and rich agricultural exporting capitalists(beef, coffee, soybean both for US and China etc).

If this victory is confirmed its going to be far worse than Argentina. It means no BRICS or China relationship. It means a possible Venezuela invasion or worse.

So is it all just about Trump? Not realy, Trump's victory is a financial market dream giving every excuse to shit on emerging market currencies.

Good depends how you look at it, its actualy terrible. I could make an effort post but ugh.

For example Brazil is currently under a extremely heavy US/neoliberal market attack, it doesn't help that Haddad is a neoliberal himself but in the short term either the Brazilian left draws a line or the market will keep pressuring for higher interest rates.

Brazil set to speed up interest rate hikes or here in Portuguese, they're talking about an insane 15% interest rate

The country is perfectly fine but the neoliberal market is demanding higher interest rates and with the US situation now its pretty much inevitable. Trump's policies may be incredibly good for the USD in the short term which is the perfect excuse to destroy the global south.

To be clear, this is pretty much destroying Lula's government and reelection chances and the Brazilian far right will likely win by ridiculous margins. With a Trump victory and support all cards are off the table including a real and successful military coup to remove them from BRICS.

Most of the global south economies are in a situation like this. There is no alternative to neoliberalism.

I know I repeat this but there is no Chinese pressure or support beyond just talks and trade deals. We may well look back and say the 21th century was lost on the contradiction between Chinese internal vs external policies.

Either way the local economic situation may be fine, certainly Brazil is well enough economicaly that interest rate hikes is economic suicide. In turn this is the perfect vehicle for right wing radicalization.

And worst of all nobody is resisting. Brazil is about to raise interest rates another .5%, its a catastrophe.

Russian neoliberalism is already putting into question the whole war economy boost.

Venezuela got fucked.

Iran is about to get bombed etc.

China is literaly bending their backs to the market while saying US very very bad.

The worst part is we can't say its because of Trump, these are tendencies happening for years now, but now it seems there will be no turning back, this is the path.

To be fair technically it can use the internet, its just a deliberate decision not to allow internet searching for "reasons", perhaps that would make it even worse given the plagiarism.