i mean...didn't he figure out that "it's possible that we are in a completely fraudulent system" like...15 years ago?
"i know the odds are on the house -- but i got a good feeling about this, now that i've established the odds aren't the only thing that's on their side but they're genuinely fraudulent as well. got a good feeling about this next hand."
trying to time the market is errand fool.
Money management is everything IMO. If you only lose 5% when you lose and win 20% when you win, you'll end up on top... eventually
Good luck determining the chances on those, especially with shorting which is entirely timing-dependent. If you only lose 5% but it's 99% of the time and you win 20% but it's 1% of the time, you still lose.