Wallstreet Bets

Fuck this.

I've lost thousands these past couple of weeks thanks to agent orange here who's been threatening Taiwan with all sorts of bullshit. This has affected the whole chip market, which in turn affected the EV market and other computer hardware manufacturers.

Already, the EV market wasn't doing so well due to lack of enthusiasm from consumers who can barely afford a shelter over their head, let alone a good damn electric car at the price they're selling them. This also affect the EV battery industry and everything related.

My ETFs we performing poorly already, so on to of this with the chip industry stocks tanking, I decided to sell everything.

Instead I'm going to invest in SAP which seems to be doing well and I think they announced they were going to enter the travel industry with a new platform? And their stocks are going strong.

Oh and it looks like its up another 50% ah.

!

Its going to be one of "those" days tomorrow.

The stock is up 30% you 📰 🖐 's

Note: This would be RoaringKitty's first live stream in 3 years.

My reaction when those calls put on another 200% today:

!

Since ARM got listed at $45 back in October, its seen a pretty good run-up. It peaked at around 160 after its listing and has been able to hold up at least 90 since then. Neat but nothing spectacular. Nothing crazy but prob a good ROI if you were interested in buying the day of.

Since then we've seen Apple further commit to the ARM based M4 chips. Now its Microsoft seems fully committed to ARM based processors for whatever their new "AI on platform" product is going to be.

We're also seeing a whole new form-factor of device with the steam deck and its new competitors. ARM is not there yet in terms of being able to run all of the software that has been built around the x86 architecture, but we also just got the news of Microsoft releasing the PRISM x86 to ARM interoperability layer. Now is it good? Idk. Likely ymmv.

So lets summarize. The two biggest hardware+ecosystem players both seem fully committed to ARM. ARM runs cooler, and more power efficient than x86, but until very recently, no one was designing around it for 'performance system'; its domain was that of embedded hardware and phones. We have a whole new class of products gaining market penetration in the form of hand-held gaming PC's or steam deck type products. These products would benefit MASSIVELY in terms of performance with better performance/ power ratios. Likewise, with the advances in ML, manufacturers are looking to move inference onto device. And this is exactly what Microsoft and Apple appear to be doing. All of this depends on ARM.

Now the bad. ARM had a bad earnings last quarter and the price dumped from 160 to 90. Its recovered to 115 since then. However, it didn't have the press that it does now. The new Microsoft line wasn't out yet. We hadn't heard of or seen the release of the M4s. I think there is good news out there in the mix for ARM this quarter.

Ultimately, some company is going to have to get in there and compete for AI acceleration, and doing so in a more cost effective, more power efficient way seems like a no brainer.

If you are thinking about microprocessors, you first question should always be "Where is Jim Keller eating lunch"? The answer? Tenstorrent. They aren't publicly traded yet, but guess what architecture they are building around?

You guessed it. ARM/ Risk-V. You follow Jim Keller around not because Jim Keller knows the future, but because the future follows Jim Keller around.

TLDR: ARM is massively undervalued and represents the future of computing for smaller, cooler, more powerful computing and AI. Its what Jim Keller has decided to spend his time on. If you just throw your money at whereever Jim Keller is currently working, you'll make bank.

Positions: Shares that I bought at listing that have given me a very noice ROI (not selling options on them), and the August 15th $115 calls. I'm planning to hold the calls through the earnings run up, and I'll hopefully sell some of them to cover the cost of the position to hold at least a few through earnings. ARM is still very new, so earnings could be a mixed bag.

cross-posted from: https://lemy.lol/post/22844267

> Need Opinion. > > What do you think is the right way to play this bet in the polygon prediction market? > > Is playing contrarian gonna give a huge pay off? > > Or Is going with the market trends going to help make decent but sure shot gains of 4-5%? > > By the way the election result is to be declared on June 4th, 2024. > > I still see most people in his favour despite everything. > > I personally don't like Modi much but as a business decision there are higher odds in betting in support of him. > > What are your thoughts on this?

Canoo’s Oklahoma City Manufacturing Facility Approved as Foreign Trade Zone

So if you gambled on my last DD you might have picked up some Canoo shares as a legit moon shot play. The 23-1 stock split was a big punch to the ribs, but today, GOEV is up ~70%-ish on news that their manufacturing facility in OK has gotten approval to be a Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ). This effectively make GOEV the largest FTZ in Oklahoma, which isn't saying much because hey, its Oklahoma.

That all being said, shit was getting dicey last week and after the reverse stock split, things were looking bad for GOEV, since it dropped almost 50% on that news. Today however, it pretty much made all that back up, which sets up an interesting earnings play.

On earnings, turns out ToS was lying to me. The real earnings date is April 1. With this big price move and news, that brings more focus onto the earnings call, but it still wont really mean shit because this is a brand new company still building out manufacturing. I don't expect break even until maybe 2026. That all being said, its getting in on a US based EV manufacturer, most of whom have shown many many to one rate of return for early investors, even those whose cars are only powered by gravity. I don't think we're still in that world, and GOEVs vehicles do actually move under their own power, so that's a big plus.

I think this news really mitigates most of the downside risk and I might hope for a price between 5-6$ post earnings. Earnings at this point in their lifecycle is kinda bullshit so grain of salt and all that. But its a calendar event with a specific timeline, so it should move things.

Position is still shares (<1k shares). I'm not betting the farm on these guys, but I think the upside potential is still very strong and that we'll eventually see one of the major manufacturers take a large stake (that's when we'll see a 10x day).

So that's my GOEV DD update. Depending on your timing from my last one, you either are break even or doubled up. But today is a very good day for those holding GOEV.

Seeing as there is pretty much no WSB style content being posted, why not a bit of a DD? Well, a half assed DD. I'm just playing in a funny money account, so this is just for moonshot plays, but I think GOEV might just be one of those.

Canoo (ticker: GOEV) is a company based out of Michigan/ Oklahoma/ Texas, who is a US, home grown, battery EV cargo and van production company. They've been taking their time, but between last earning and this one, they shipped their first vehicles. They're just now begining to ship vehicles, so unsurprisingly, haven't posted a profit yet.

I've been holding GOEV since I saw some trailers for their Canoo vehicle, and the stock has been in a tailspin for quite a while now. The short position seems to be covering in about 1.5 days, so surprisingly not terrible. My thinking here is to be positioned for some good news. Earnings is on March 5th. My main thesis for this play is that they've just had a bunch of great press this quarter. They got vehicles into the hands of the Oklahoma state government, US Postal service, and some other federal agencies. This company seems to be focusing more on fleet, which to me, last mile delivery at low speeds is like a no-brainer for battery EV. I think the vans might be just dorky enough for the Federal government to consider them.

My play is just holding shares, because the price is so low (I nailed it on a similar play with Sundial when it was a penny stock). I'll probably double my current position (just a couple thousand shares) and hope for a pop next week. If it doesn't pop, I'll probably either fold or hold for another quarter depending on the numbers.

Ready to lose it all next week.

I don't exactly find a bunch of lemmy communities for WSB. Is there an expat community I don't know of?

Peace

I've got put spreads on COIN. I'm watching QS, will go long or short depending on price action.

What are your plays?

https://lemmy.world/post/3411352 Just xpost from another community. Still after what just happened to evergrande

There's enough of us in here, where we need a mod or a bot to generate some news. with crypto where its at, FedNow and the rubble crashing there's enough plays and money to be made by all!

PUTS on DIS after finding out they've been feeding the streaming beast marvel they are in trouble. I see them dipping down to $75 before they rebound

ber or bol?

You keep wandering. Resting on the ledge of a trashcan you see a cracked BIC lighter. The inner canister is unbroken and still has some fluid left, so you pocket it. The prospect of surviving in this place brings a coldness to your chest and an adrenaline spike to your blood.

Cold, desolate, dirty. No surprise your life has brought you to a place like this. In some ways you've known all along. Right from the first moment, something in you knew it would take you here. But still, something made you do it anyways. Something called to you. The possibility of more, maybe. The possibility of a thrill. Something worth living for. But of course, here you are, no different than any of the other schmucks. Perhaps you'll perish in the same way as well. Just the same as the rest of them.

What are your moves for today, Friday July 7th, 2023

One thing's certain: there's trash everywhere. It's the sort of place that makes you feel like you need a shower just to get the stench off.

A nearby wall is graffitied with the words,

Bools r fuk

Which itself is mostly covered up by a fresher graffiti of,

🌈bers

Perhaps this place doesn't deserve such curiosity. Perhaps it's simply an abandoned site of degeneracy that ate itself with its own vileness. Bile breaching the inner lining of the stomach to consume healthy cells around it. Contained, it is a necessary function of a healthy body. Self-regulating. Always churning. Tucked away out of sight to the outside world for it's odeousness, yet without it the body fails.

In fact, you are certain now that this place was not a matter of self-affliction. Rather, it's importance was undervalued and it's vital role to the greater body misunderstood. This organ did not fail. It was failed by the body it resided in. And as a result, bile and acid is now spewed all around these abandoned streets. Nothing left to consume. No nutrients extracted.

What are your moves for today, Thursday July 6th, 2023?

Looking around, you quickly realize that there are many similar scribbled notes lying all around. In fact, every piece of trash in the vicinity, it seems, has the same question scribbled on it, each with a different day in recent history.

What kind of society could this have been? One obsessed with a daily ritual of movements? All around is scattered only questions, never any answers. What were these people searching for with each day's question of moves? Why was this question so important? Or was it important at all? Perhaps it was just a way to pass the time.

What are your moves for today, Wednesday July 5, 2023?

You walk through the desolate streets of New York, dust and building rubble all around you. Evidence of a bygone community that once existed here.

Turning a corner, you are blinded for a moment by something reflective above your eyes. It's a street sign, battered and leaning against the stone building, but still standing. It reads:

WALL ST

Down at your feet you see a wendies wrapper pressed against your ankle by the wind. There's some writing scribbled on it in thick permanent marker. You bend down to grab it. Processed cheese sticks between your pant leg and the wrapper as you lift it up. Fuck. The handwriting is terrible, as if written by someone who has hardly a grasp on the written language, but somehow it this fact only adds more importance to the words you read. You peer closely to make it out:

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, Monday July 03, 2023?

https://fdscanner.com/ From the archives of wsb.

No real DD but with talks of recession, more ppl will be on streaming services!

After earnings 7/27 calls 70$

cross-posted from: https://wallstreets.bet/post/1273

> TLDR: It seems to me like there is a real question hanging out in the ether around who actually owns the content that gets posted to reddit. The ongoing protests bring to light some important points about reddit and social media companies as a whole, specifically around content generation, ownership, and brand identity. > > Positions: Long dated puts on Reddit once they IPO and options become available; Long dated puts/ calls on alphabet depending on how they react. > > > Thesis: > > For social media sites like reddit (and perhaps to a greater extent, youtube and tictoc), there is an ongoing conflict that will always be present between the owners of the company, and the 'owners' of the content. In the case of youtube, the owners of the company (alphabet) have pretty clearly understood that the content that they host is not 'theirs', that its the property of the uploader/ creator/ copyright holder, etc.. > In this case, there is pretty clear and established law around video and audio media for this kind of property rights. Because of this, youtube has primarily built its self as a support engine for the generation and consumption of that content, and doesn't see themselves as the 'owners' of that content; this is made even more clear by the profit sharing arrangements they'll enter into for channels that are doing well, generating traffic, etc. In 2022, advertising made up 80% of googles revenue, and while its rather opaque about how much of that is search or other services, youtube is the 9000 kg gorilla in the room. Its one of the only clear advertising pathways that gives advertisers reliable in-site into if their ad was actually seen, it gives them clear metrics into demographics and audience due to the videos. So just keep in mind, inspite of all of the AI hype, advertising is still 80% of alphabets revenue; this is largely from a social media/ content platform (not that dissimilar from reddit from a discovery perspective). I think its also important to note here that youtube has been aggressively experimenting with countering ad-blockers/ forced consumption via apps, etc. > > Reddit has a very different perception of ownership than youtube has taken. Reddit very clearly sees themselves as the owners of everything that gets created on their platform. While this is legally dubious, that is irrelevant to the premise. For example, lets say that youtube wanted to force all people to use the app to watch youtube. There would be nothing stopping content creators from pulling their videos off youtube, moving to some other platform; taking their ball and going home. Youtube would have no recourse. They couldnt force the channels back up or post the videos elsewhere without putting themselves in serious legal jeopardy, which they would definitely lose on at least most high courts. Contrasting this with reddit, the company is going to be forcing open these subreddits and opening them up; perhaps replacing moderators; etc. So, to some extent, this might open them up to legal jeopardy. I think there is a clear argument that you can make that by starting and moderating a subreddit, you've 'created' something. That same argument extends to the posts and content its self. I do see this as a very unlikely case, and one not likely to hold up under our current legal system. However, this DD is about what this implies to the broader social media landscape. Reddits commitment to the enshittification of all things through their forcing of users to be beholden to capitol is consistent with the degradation of all platforms during their lifecycle. > > When things are novel, new modes of interaction are created. The beginning of the lifecycle is chaotic, wild-west energy. This generates excitement, fomo for the new thing, and as a result, exponential growth. This is where the first 1-20% of users come from. These are the super users, the mods, the comment creators, and the commentors. These 20% are followed in the second phase by the 20-60%. These are the consumers, the one word replies. In reddit parlance: "this". This cohort confuses themselves with the first 20%. The final 40% come in after the west has been tamed, when the avatars are released, they see wild thing that corporate has tamed and thinks this is the way things have always been. > > This distribution is consistent across almost every domain, where a very small percentage of participants is responsible for the vast majority of activity, and most low engagement users confuse themselves as being higher engagement. > > Lets start putting this all together. Reddit has created no reward or profit sharing for its most highly engaged audience (the 20%). Reddit also does not see the content generated on their platform as yours; they see it as theirs. Effectively you (the content creator) have no rights to what you do on their software. There are clear alternatives for content sharing and generation to reddit. Lemmy is one of them, but realistically, there are others, much more popular (tictoc, insta, etc..). None of them are as good an aggregator as reddit, the "front page of the internet" (whoever made the decision to get rid of that tagline should be fired). What this situation does, however, is create a kind of battle for the spirit of where social media goes next. If reddit can effectively "get away" with stealing the content that not-reddit has made using their platform, other social media platforms will follow. > > > So building on the enshittification of all things, and consistent with what we're seeing across the web-3.0 internet, we're watching what were previously open spaces turn into walled gardens, and walled gardens turn into moated castles. Why is this relevant or how does this turn into a DD? My thinking here is that the reddit blackout has real implications for the enshittification of all things. If companies can steal your content and not pay you for it, they will. This might be dependent on how 'locked in' they think they have you. I think youtube would be next, my speculation is that they would look to create a 'two-teired' ownership structure. They won't risk getting sued by Miramax, but they could give a shit if you want to leave with your 100k subscriber channel. They're keeping your content and you can fuck off (which is effectively what reddit is doing and may be able to set a precedent for). > > Since this is a DD, I'm required to post positions, so here they are. > > I'm still waiting on the Reddit IPO, and once options become available, I'm expecting a Rivian style blow up and then blow out. I'm going to try buying the longest dated puts possible at the top. Since they arent public yet, its unclear to me what strikes I'll be getting, but I'll be watching for a peak, and then will buy at the money. > > Further, I'm going to be paying extremely close attention to how other social media companies react to the reddit black out from a content ownership and creation standpoint, with my primary being alphabet. I'll also be monitoring the growth of the fediverse closely and looking to see how viable the alternatives are. Its important to remember that all of the modern monoliths in social media started as alternatives, so don't count out the geeks. > > If youtube takes a similar tack as reddit, and especially if there is a growing/ viable alternative space like floatplane or peertube, or whatever, I'm looking at long dated puts. If they seem like they are doing more to support their creators, I'll go for long dated calls. > > Either way, I think we're in for some seismic shifts in the social media landscape over the next 3 years. I'm really excited for the reddit IPO, mostly so that I can profit from their downfall. I think they really misunderstand where their value is created.

Were you a part of wallstreetbets? Do you enjoy making stupid bets on what a line on the screen is going to do? Are you over reddit and looking for a place to plant some roots? Consider taking some pressure off the bigger instances and migrating to wallstreets.bet. We’re looking to be the federated home of monetary degeneracy and your place to post plays, due diligence, memes about jpow etc…

I hope this community can serve as the subreddit used to. Like watching TLC reality TV to feel better about yourself.