"Hours and hours of content have been minted by highly-educated, prestigiously-credentialed people, consternating about the policy implications of Sam Altman’s speculative fan fiction"
This is like asking what your probability is of being run over by a car while sitting in your living room in your high-rise apartment...
I actually remember a 2015 study from Toretto et al. showing that this is a really more plausible than you might think. Other than that this is a great piece. I particularly appreciated one of the better breakdowns of what people mean by "ChatGPT is just a giant table of numbers" for someone who doesn't have technical background in the area.