Israeli military says Iran has fired missiles at Israel

So seems like Iran intends this to be a one and done response for everything Israel has done the last few months.

i.e. "Please don't escalate this any further. We prefer this level of escalation and no more."

The Washington Post is reporting, citing three anonymous Pentagon officials, that American troops in the Middle East were not targeted during the Iranian missile attack in Israel.

Iraqi group linked to Iran have previously fired rockets at military bases housing US soldiers in Iraq and Syria.

Another sign that Iran is trying to respond, as a deterrent, rather than with an intent to escalate. At least that's what it seems like so far.

So seems like Iran intends this to be a one and done response for everything Israel has done the last few months.

I think it's highly unlikely that Israel will agree on that one. This may escalate and quickly.

181 missiles were launched this time

BBC: "celebratory gunfire" in Beiruit.

What a fucked up part of the world.

Edit: the celebratory part isn't fucked up. The doing it by shooting guns in the air is.

I don't see how the Middle East war could escalate into a worldwide conflict. Ukraine, maybe. The Middle East conflict spiralling out of that territory? Nah.

Russia are not that bothered about Iran, and the US want to keep Israel around for the geopolitical influence they get from them, but I don't think Israel is worth enough to the US to make them risk a direct confrontation with Russia.

Worst case scenario, Israel and Iran beat the shit out of each other while everyone else watches from the sidelines, making the occasional, half-hearted demand for a ceasefire. At most, Russia and US will continue supplying their respective friends with bombs and arms to profit off the conflict for as long as they can.

My guess is it depends on the damage this attack will cause. If the missiles are all shot down or hit desert, it will be some punitive F-35 strike on an Iranian airfield somewhere. But if there's significant damage and casualties it could escalate.

I don't think Iran is going to risk all out war with Israel and the US. I suspect they expect most of their missiles (like the drones) to be shot down. Perhaps that's wishful thinking though...

Depends on Israels response. When Iran did this in April in retaliation for Israel bombing an Iranean embassy, Iran was like "we have retaliated and are good now", Israel responded but it was limited, and status quo was restored.

If Israel decides to escalate (which is their default play lately), or if Iranean missiles hit forcing them to retaliate, there could be all out war, including involving the US.

If you want a hint of what's to come:

The far-right Israeli finance minister (Bezalel Smotrich) writes on social media: “Like Gaza, Hezbollah and the state of Lebanon, Iran will regret the moment.”

Well the last time Iran fired stuff at Israel, the missles were all intercepted and didn't do anything. So we'll see. It may end up being another otherwise nothing burger, but considering Israel is actively invading Lebanon right now, the chances for larger and larger exchanges that begin overwhelming the Iron Dome are growing by the second.

I guess that will depend on what the missiles are carrying.

Let's just say a limited attack by Iran would be exactly what Netanjahu could wish for, to keep the war going and secure more support from the US. So this could be the start of another 30 year war in the middle east that draws in US ground troops at some point.

Localized slaughter and limited intervention. Same as it has been for literally decades at this point.