OpenAI is now valued at $157 billion

I really don't understand the hype about AI in it's current state.
- It's not for you. Its for corporations who want to fire half their staff and replace them with an algorithm. That's why it has such a high valuation.
  
  Those corporations are about to find out the fun way that these algorithms, in their current and near-future states, cannot replace human beings.
  Well, except for maybe lazy copywriters who pump out pointless listicles and executives who do - whatever it is they do - but any non-trivial task requiring creativity and understanding is beyond these tools.
  
  An AI chatbot for a cloud service I use helped me find the right documentation for setting up SSO. It's not all bad. But the way it's pushed is bad.
- It’s all leading to one final product: VR sex robots
  
  I saw a documentary about that.
  
  It better.
  
  Like your optimism, but unlikely
- It's not related to the technology, is the venture industry trying tp figure out the next unicorn, which they have been trying to find for the last ten years.
  
  Cloud? Neva heard of it! AI is where the money is at now.
  Buzzwords, that's all they are.
- Honestly, I can say I don't really get it either. I would only use the open source models anyway, but it just seems rather silly from what I can tell.
  
  I would only use the open source models anyway, but it just seems rather silly from what I can tell.
  I feel like the last few months have been an inflection point, at least for me. Qwen 2.5, and the new Command-R, really make a 24GB GPU feel "dumb, but smart," useful enough so I pretty much always keep Qwen 32B loaded on the desktop for its sheer utility.
  It's still in the realm of enthusiast hardware (aka a used 3090), but hopefully that's about to be shaken up with bitnet and some stuff from AMD/Intel.
  Altman is literally a vampire though, and thankfully I think he's going to burn OpenAI to the ground.
  
  Are you trying to solve science with it or something? You are supposed to turn carefully worded sentences into funny pictures and show people.
- It doesn't matter. Just understand that there are people who get paid way more than the average joe to hype the shit out these companies to attract investor value. Then get mad at capitalism like the rest of us.
- MBA degrees are way too easy to obtain. And the federal government bailing things out for a few decades has taught the market that they can take huge risks without much direct risk.
- It’s just the new grift. There’s probably some value in there somewhere, some elements of it that will evolve into useful tools that get used a lot and presumably make a bunch of money for someone but yeah. Grifters gonna grift.
- That's because we're using it wrong. It's not a genie you go to for answers to your problems, it's mighty putty. You could build a house out of it, but it's wildly expensive and not at all worth it. But if you want to stick a glass bottle to a tree, or fix a broken plastic shell back together, it's great
  For example, you can have it do a web search, read through the results to see if it actually contains what you're looking for, then summarize what it found and let you jump right there to evaluate yourself. You could have it listen to your podcasts and tag them by topic. You could write a normal program to generate a name and traits of a game character, then have the AI write flavor text and dialog trees for quest chains
  Those are some projects I've used AI for - specifically, local AI running on my old computer. I'm looking to build a new one
  I also use chat gpt to write simple but tedious code on a weekly basis for my normal job - things like "build a class to represent this db object". I don't trust it to do anything that's not straightforward - I don't trust myself to do anything tedious
  The AI is not an expert, I am. The AI is happy to do busy work, every second of it increases my stress level. AI is tireless, it can work while I sleep. AI is not efficient, but it's flexible. My code is efficient, but it is not flexible
  As a part of a system, AI is the link between unstructured data and code, which needs structure. It let's you do things that would have required a 24/7 team of dozens of employees. It also is unable to replace a single human - just like a computer
  That's my philosophy at least, after approaching LLMs as a new type of tool and studying them as a developer. Like anything else, I ran it on my own computer and poked and prodded it until I saw the patterns. I learned what it could do, and what it struggled to do. I learned how to use it, I developed methodologies. I learned how to detect and undo "rampancy", a number of different failure states where it degrades into nonsense. And I learned how to use it as another tool in my toolbox, and I pride myself on using the right tool for the job
  This is a useful tool - I repeatedly have used it to do things I couldn't have done without it. This is a new tool - artisans don't know how to use it yet. I can build incredible things with this tool with what I know now, and other people are developing their own techniques to great effect. We will learn how to use this tool, even in its current state. It will take time, its use may not be obvious, but this is a very useful tool
  
  You're doing it wrong, you're only allowed to hate AI and if you don't you're a crypto shill or something idk
- You must not be feeling the AGI.
- I like it. I use it every day. Much faster and better than sifting through garbage websites to find answers.
  
  How’s the glue on your pizza working out?
  
  Possibly correct answers lol

You guys want me to invest? I'm guaranteed to lower the stock value by ~30% within about a month with my shidas touch
- Yeah, do it!
  I had a similar touch when I was younger. I’ve worked for Circuit City, Toys ‘R’ Us, and Blockbuster Video. Sadly, Best Buy somehow survived.
  
  Can you... Work for Broadcom? Or Oracle or EA, or something. Just a suggestion.
  
  Alrighty then, just need to wait for fucking novideo stock to get back to what I bought it at and I'll dump and switch (don't have anything spare to play around with sadly)
  I hear you though, I also had(have?) similar physical effect on things like toys as a kid or some electronics since then....just brake shit randomly without trying, especially if I don't own it.
- I gotta get employed there, but yeah similar effect.
  
  You will? Really?

I can't wait for this current "A.I." craze to go away. The tech is doofy, useless, wasteful, and a massive energy consumer. This is blockchain nonsense all over again, though that still hasn't fully died yet, unfortunately.
- Like blockchain there is some niche usefulness to the technology, but also like blockchain it's being applied to a myriad of things it is not useful for.
  
  Also it’s not fucking ai is it. I actually find the blatant misuse of this term incredibly annoying to be honest.
- This work will have lots of applications in the future. I personally stay as far away from it as I can because I just have zero need for it to write souless birthday card messages for me but to act like the work is doing nothing is kinda stupid.
  Every stage it’s been at people would say “oh this can’t even do X” and then it could and they’d so “oh it can’t do Y” and then it could and they’d say…do I really need to go on?
  The biggest issue with it all right, for me anyway, now is that we’re trying to use it for the absolute dumbest shit imaginable and investors are throwing tonnes of money, that could solve real problems we don’t need AI for, into the grinder while poverty and climate change run rampant around us.
- It has its uses, but it is being massively overhyped.
  Having trialled Copilot and a few other AI tools in my workplace, I can confidently says it’s a minor productivity booster.
  
  apparently so far the research disagrees with the productivity claims https://www.cio.com/article/3540579/devs-gaining-little-if-anything-from-ai-coding-assistants.html
  
  Whereas I have been finding uses for it to produce things that simply could not have produced myself without it, making it far more than a mere "productivity boost."
  I think people are mainly seeing what they want to see.
- The total market cap across all cryptocurrencies is currently about 2.5 trillion dollars, which isn't far below its all-time high of 3 trillion. If that's something you'd say "hasn't fully died yet" then AI's not going to go away any time soon by that standard.
  
  I didn't specify cryptocurrencies. They were not the only "good" attached to blockchain hype. Besides, they are primarily money laundering schemes and also used to steal from the financially illiterate. Touting market caps doesn't change the actual real-world use case.

Oh good! I remember when they said they couldn't afford to pay independent copyright owners. Now they can pay for the work they stole!
- This is exactly what will happen.
  /s
  
  ...said the lawyer getting ready to fill out a class action lawsuit.

If I had 10k to leverage I would be shorting the FUCK out of this, it's a bubble and everyone knows it
- Market can remain irrational, etc
- Even if you 1000 x your $10k I don’t think you’d have enough to short something valued at $157B, however inflated that valuation might be.
  
  You can short something with $1. It's just not enough to affect the value itself. You also don't technically need any money at all, the point of a basic short is to profit off selling borrowed stock after all.
  
  You can short something without forcing a short squeeze...
- I'd say still risky. They might perpetuate the bubble for longer, which means high risk of forced covering at loss.
- You’ll never have 10k if you keep eating all those avocados.
- How do you short a privately-held company?

When I copy and paste someone else’s work, I get called a plagiarist and get fired.
When OpenAI creates a robot that does it really really really fast, they make enough money to feed the planet hundreds of times over.
I don’t want to live on this planet any more.
- You need to do more fancy thingy between the copy and the pasting.
- Good, intellectual property is a mental illness of capitalism
  
  Sure, but I think recognizing someone when they accomplish something of value is important regardless of the economic system in place.
  And in this Capitalistic society OpenAI is doing nothing but literally capitalizing on the hard work of thousands of individuals without giving them any form of recognition

- I say we indict Sam Altman for both securities fraud and 8 billion counts of reckless endangerment. Him and other AI boosters are running around shouting that AGI is just around the corner, OpenAI is creating it, and that there is a very good chance we won't be able to control it and that it will kill us all. Well, the way I see it, there are only two possibilities:
  He's right. In which case, OpenAI is literally endangering all of humanity by its very operation. In that case, the logical thing to do would be for the rest of us to arrest everyone at OpenAI, shove them in deep hole and never let them see the light of day again, and burn all their research and work to ashes. When someone says, "superintelligent AI cannot be stopped!" I say, "you sure about that? Because it's humans that are making it. And humans aren't bullet-proof."
  He's lying. This is much more likely. In that case, he is guilty of fraud. He's falsely making claims his company has no ability to achieve, and he is taking in billions in investor money based on these lies.
  He's either a conman, or a man so dangerous he should literally be thrown in the darkest hole we can find for the rest of his life.
  And no, I REALLY don't buy the argument that if the tech allows it, that superintelligent AI is just some inevitable thing we can't choose to stop. The proposed methods to create it all rely on giant data centers that consume gigawatts of energy to run. You're not hiding that kind of infrastructure. If it turns out superintelligence really is possible, we pass a global treaty to ban it, and simply shoot anyone that attempts to create it. I'm sorry, but if you legitimately are threatening the survival of the entire species, I have zero qualms about putting you in the ground. We don't let people build nuclear reactors in their basement. And if this tech really is that capable and that dangerous, it should be regulated as strongly as nuclear weapons. If OpenAI really is trying to build a super-AGI, they should be treated no differently than a terrorist group attempting to build their own nuclear weapon.
  But anyway, I say we just indict him on both charges. Charge Sam Altman with both securities fraud and 8 billion counts of reckless endangerment. Let the courts figure out which one he is guilty of, because it's definitely one or the other.
- The valuation is based on the last buy in... I am guessing they had somebody buy in recently. Otherwise this is just straight up fake news.

Even its name is full of shit.
- Even its name is ~~full of shit.~~ a hallucination
  There, fixed it for you.
- The name use to be closer to the truth, but then money corrupted it - as it always does.
- Closed statistical algorithms would be more suitable but less marketing friendly.

Just a speculation bubble, no work no real technos, same as every other fucking ai company
- It's the new crypto, NFT scam.

Can't wait for the AI boom to inevitably pop and all those billions that could have been spent on...literally anything else, go down the drain.

Sounds like the perfect time for artists to sue and get their fair* share of that.
All of it. They deserve all of it.

Sounds like a bubble.

Let's see for how long.

Why not just withdraw that money in banknotes, and burn it in a stove?
- The Money Hole bit from Onion News Network is a classic https://youtu.be/JnX-D4kkPOQ
- Hey you know as well as I do that that money belongs in the money hole. 🕳️

Great read on the topic: OpenAI Is A Bad Business by Ed Zitron (Where's Your Ed At)
- Ed Zitron is amazing. That dude just says it like it is.
- I love his podcast.

Not OpenAI, now they will be ClosedAI :
... complete its planned conversion from a nonprofit (with a for-profit division) to a fully for-profit company.

It'S nOt A bUbBlE!

I listened to The Foundering on Sam Altman at the same time as listening to The Power Broker and they weirdly synced up.
They only have one solution for everything, believing more of that thing will solve everything ("Just one more scrape, just one more scrape of everything that's been said or published anywhere and our next model will be perfect.")
They don't care for the destruction left in their wake
They will walk over everyone, including their own family to remain part of the conversation
The only difference is Robert Moses was constrained to New York
- You are describing creative destruction
- Yeah yeah...all that destruction from checks notes looking at every meme and listening to every song on the internet.
  Such destruction. Much chaos! 🥱🥱🥱🙄🙄🙄

God I hope they crash and burn

i hope musk buys it and loses another $100 billion

I'll give ya tree fiddy. Final off her.

https://files.catbox.moe/h5f44d.png
- Is it not the other way around? The stuff in the square brackets becomes the alt-text.
  
  No

Burst. Buuuurst. Buuuuuurat

Still far too low for a company that will likely accomplish AGI in the next two years.
- Unless there is a drastic breakthrough in computing from a hardware company in or energy sources from likely a nuclear company, this is not possible.
  
  Even then. LLMs are fundamentally unable to create AGI; we'd need another paradigm shift in the field.
  
  For comparison, human brains only use 25W. We're pretty damn good.
- Will that be before or after the metaverse arrives?
- LLMs are unable to create AGI. It's mathematically impossible.
- DM me, I got a few bridges to sell you.
- I guess in two years I'll eat my words. Not really.