Donald Trump Overtakes Kamala Harris in Seven-Point Swing Nationally: Poll

Well, Newsweek. That's really fucking weird of you to say that, because Activote sure isn't making that claim at all:

So now I'm REALLY fucking curious as to why this article exists, and the data is wrong. Also, Activote is an app, not a "real" polling platform.

In the sixty-three days since this account was created, it has made five thousand one hundred and seven submissions

That averages out to once every seventeen minutes and forty-five seconds twenty-four hours seven days a week

"Various organisations in Nazi Germany required their members to swear oaths to Adolf Hitler by name, rather than to the German state"

Monk's script:

• "I didn't write the article, I just posted it", even though posting propaganda is the same thing as writing it
• "I'm just posting articles that I found interesting", even though they can't ever explain what they find so interesting and will shut down if asked
• "If you feel that the article is against the rules, let the mods know", even though no one said Monk was breaking the rules by posting propaganda. They like to post the mod log link after someone brings it up, for seemingly no reason.
• "I'm not voting for Kamala or Trump", even though a vote for third parties is just going to empower a vote for Trump
• "I'm not voting for [third party candidate], I'm voting for [third party candidate]"
• Something about how they don't have to explain anything about themselves even though they reply anyway
• Something about a community they created to seem more genuine
• Some form of sarcastic or fake "thank you" even though no one asked for their thanks, all likely to appear nice at a passing glance
• Using ":)" in another failed attempt to seem nice
• Calling you "friend" in yet another misguided attempt to appear nice at the surface
• Demanding proof for otherwise reasonable claims (sealioning).

Websites that have banned this user:

• https://reddit.com/user/universalmonkartist/
• https://lemmy.ca/u/UniversalMonk@lemmy.world
• https://dubvee.org/u/universalmonk@lemmy.world

It seems likely the reason each one banned him is the same reason their every post and comment is sitting at < -25. People detest the anti-democrat messaging and the way it’s delivered. It’s undeniable that this user rubs enough people the wrong way that they get a lot of attention for that alone.

During an election year especially, I expect better of any social media website than to just let this shit happen.

I'm starting to notice a trend with your posts.

Didn't we just do this? I swear, we just did this:

As usual, national polls are useless. We don't have national elections, and as others pointed out, the poll doesn't even say what Newsweek says it says. Numbers after the jump.

Now... ALLLLL that being said... Last time I did this, Harris hit 270 exactly. First time this year any candidate hit the magic number.

AZ - Toss Up. Harris +1, +3, Trump +1, +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

NV - Toss Up. Tie, Harris +1, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

NM - Harris +5, +8, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/

GA - Toss Up, 5 separate polls show tie votes.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

FL - Trump +6, +13, +14
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/

NC - Toss Up, Harris +3, Trump +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

PA - Toss Up, Tie, Harris +1, +4, Trump +1, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

MI - Tie, Harris +2, +3. 3rd parties 0 to 1%, no impact.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

WI - Harris +1, +2, +3, +4, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

MN - Harris +5, +6, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

Plotted on the map:

As usual, PA is a must win. If Harris takes it, that's it, she doesn't need anything else.

Failing that, NC or GA + any 1 other state. AZ + NV alone is not enough, that drops her right at 268.

For Trump, he has to win PA to stay in, that gives him 238, from there he needs 32 more. So NC + GA. Or NV + AZ and either NC or GA.

Minimum 1 state for Harris to win, PA. Also a 2 state win of NC or GA + 1 other. Max would be 3 states. AZ, NV + 1 other.

Minimum 3 states for Trump to win (PA, GA, NC), could be as many as 4 of the 5 outstanding (PA, AZ, NV, + GA or NC)

How to stop feeding the troll:

Made me think of this user for some reason.

I really wish we had a rule about posts that mention polling, but don’t link to the polling. Probably impossible to moderate but it’s really low-quality journalism.

What’s ironic is the article links several other polling sources, but not the one it mentions in the headline.

Newsweek - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)

Information for Newsweek:

MBFC: Right-Center - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: Mostly Factual - United States of America
Wikipedia about this source

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https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-national-polls-1966429

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