will twitter last or will it die?

Same as tumblr, still around, but largely irrelevant.

I'm leaning towards die. It would have lasted longer as Twitter. But as X? Old politicians will just get confused where their blue bird app went.

My bets is that Yahoo will buy it for $1B, and then sell it for $3M.

Technically in name it's gone. The remnants of it carry on. Hopefully the public figures and creators migrate to a different platform already because hearing less about Musk would be better for everybody.

AOL and Yahoo are still around, but completely irrelevant now.

I personally hope it will die more than Tumblr did. More like Myspace. But that doesn't seem likely. In fact, the Facebook case seems closer to it's situation: Biggest social network of the world at one point, struggling simultaneously with scandals, legal issues and new competition; slowly losing it's hegemony but remaining relevant in some places...

tumblr isn't dead??

Twitter already died. X (seriously?) almost certainly will too.

Ehm? What twitter? Twitter is dead, long live X.

(which I guess will die a horribly slow and quiet death)

It'll slowly fizzle away, becoming more and more irrelevant.

btw tumblr isn't dead either.

I think it will last... Until big companies doesn't use it anymore.

Edit:

I forgot to explain why.

Many big companies uses Twitter to announce things, like new products, updates, etc.

I think when they all stop announcing on Twitter, or even change to another platform to continue their announcement (for example, some of I used to follow have been moved Mastodon), these users will think that there're no reason to use Twitter anymore, then Twitter would less known, and less users use it afterwards.

It won't die, it will just become irrelevant for the majority of people.

Doooooooooooommm!!!

It will last, because it's the place where certain political force will stay.

And the opposition will go there just to see what "they" are doing and possibly taunt and insult them.

What twitter?

Well, Elon's vision is to turn it into an American "wechat" that has everything a user needs. Sort of like a return to dailup AOL days where you opened up one program for accessing the internet at large. It had chat, web browser, music, etc.

That's his vision. He's going to try and move in that direction, and that's partly the reason for the name change. While definitely ambitious, is it realistic? I don't know. It could be a huge failure, staining Elon's otherwise good track record.

For example with SpaceX he managed to reduce the cost of sending satellites by an absurd amount. From $30,000 per pound of material shot up into space, it went down to $1,200.

If he can do half of what he did with SpaceX at "X" then maybe twitter/x has a chance of not only remaining relevant but becoming something bigger.

However my personal opinion is that he is making poor decision after poor decision and unless he has a 4d chess strategy I'm not seeing it's not going well for him. I'm withholding total judgement for now just to see what he's going to do but honestly it's not looking good.