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  • I believe the truth is far simpler than the conspiracy theories presented today.

    Trump, as groomed child with little incentive to succede in the world (as he was born and groomed with silver spoon in his mouth), simply generated debt that paid for his lavish life. Indeed, the man went BANKRUPT 4 TIMES. Let that sink in as a clear indication of his incompetence.

    At certain point, he lended money from the russians and now is the payback time.

    This is, of course, simplified version, because it is all happening on very high level and russians are probably to smart to demand money, but they do demand other services like dissolving NATO (so that they can expand), destroying the US commercial reputation and ties with it's allies and so on and so forth... and this guy is delivering. This all removes the US from the world power-picture and leaves the US and EU markets at the plate for russian and chinese taking.

    How would that world look and what horrors loom in the darkness... well... we do live in interresting times.

    • Indeed, the man went BANKRUPT 4 TIMES. Let that sink in as a clear indication of his incompetence.

      If you can go bankrupt to the tune of a billion dollars, walk across the street to another bank, take out a new billion dollar line of credit, and keep shitting in your gold plated toilets, then I'm not clear how you are the incompetent one.

      Trump highlights the real dividing line between Rich and Poor in America, and its the proximity to cheap, easy lines of credit. If you can discharge a billion dollars of debt time and time again, while I'm stuck on the hook for a few grand in credit card debts or a tens of thousands in student loans for the rest of my life, its trivial for you to remain rich while it remains onerous for me to escape poverty.

      they do demand other services like dissolving NATO

      This isn't a demand from the Russians, its a demand from the paleocons and the libertarians. Long before Putin was mayor of St. Petersburg, guys like Ron Paul and Pat Buchanan were lobbying to remove the US from every international organization. And their ideas were well-received, in the same way Brexit and Yugoslavian balkinization and the parsing out of micro-states like Hong Kong and Singapore and Israel were well-received.

      Building these ultra-wealthy megapolises, surrounded by high walls and armed to the teeth against working class dissidents, has been the project of the western ultra-right wing for decades. Ayn Rand lionized it in the form of Galt's Gulch. Heinlein romanticized it in "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress". Friedman and the Chicago Boys forced it onto Central America and the Caribbean states during the Reagan Era. Now Trump is making this vision manifest in the beating heart of the Republic.

      American balkinization is a plutocrat final solution to federal regulations authored by elected authority. It is the mirror side of Lincoln's dire warning against A House Divided. For the class of American revanchists who revile a democratic state, this is a deliberate end game.

    • Exactly what i was thinking. As much as i'd like EU and its countries to be independent and have a better sense of unity, i feel like this is still benefitting Russia immensly in the end by severing ties with US the entire west will be vulnerable; with all these political tensions within EU countries themselves already it wont get any better...

  • Just going to repost some translated analytics here. To add another angle

    Trump cannot exert economic pressure on Ukraine, and halting military supplies does not have an immediate effect. However, in my opinion, his most significant leverage is political. This factor could play a key role in forcing Ukraine into a peace agreement.

    It’s important for understanding the context of why the U.S. needs this. For those who don’t want to read the full post, I’ll briefly summarize: The U.S. needs to contain China, which means preventing a China-Russia alliance. However, the U.S. lacks the financial resources, and due to this, Trump wants to scale back historical support for Europe.

    Trump's declared foreign policy goals extend far beyond Ukraine. His aim is to restructure the entire global order and dismantle the foundational principles established during the Yalta Conference, which are now completely outdated.

    Accordingly, a warming of U.S.-Russia relations is a completely natural and logical process from the standpoint of U.S. interests. And this should happen independently of Ukraine. However, as long as the war continues, Trump wants to link these processes together—essentially trading concessions and a war freeze in exchange for lifting sanctions and resetting relations. But this is not a strict prerequisite.

    This is directly evident from Trump's rhetoric—he does not tie improved relations to specific actions from Russia, such as admitting guilt or paying reparations. On the contrary, Reuters has already reported that Trump has instructed the State Department and the Treasury to prepare a list of sanctions that could be lifted soon. While this likely won’t involve anything major at first, certain individuals could see sanctions removed. However, this in itself is an important signal: Ukraine is being separated from U.S.-Russia relations. For now, Trump does not want to make concessions in advance while negotiations are ongoing.

    Yet, if the deal collapses due to Ukraine, then U.S.-Russia relations will develop without considering Ukraine at all, solely based on American interests. It seems that this mechanism was already set in motion after a White House dispute—CNN reports that preparations for a Putin-Trump meeting have been accelerated. Additionally, a second round of talks in Saudi Arabia is expected soon, where the focus is likely to be more on U.S.-Russia economic cooperation rather than Ukraine.

    Any real steps in this direction will effectively lead to the EU lifting its own sanctions. Even now, secondary sanctions are more problematic than the primary ones. Countries like Turkey were willing to bypass restrictions, but Biden tightened the screws. Trump, however, doesn't even need to formally lift sanctions—he can just turn a blind eye to violations by third countries.

    At the same time, if the U.S. officially lifts sanctions, Europe will have little choice but to follow suit. Many companies left the Russian market voluntarily, as a gesture of goodwill, without being legally required to do so. As a result, they could begin returning once their governments give a quiet green light—publicly condemning the move, but privately claiming they can't interfere because private companies are free to act in a democracy and capitalist system.

    Right now, the only hope for hawks in Ukraine and the EU is to prolong the war, expecting that Russia will collapse under economic pressure, forcing Putin to negotiate from a position of weakness. However, if sanctions are lifted, this already uncertain scenario will become highly unlikely, making further war pointless for Ukraine. This would force Kyiv to either accept a far worse peace deal than what’s currently on the table or continue fighting alone, without any realistic hope of achieving what could be called a victory.

  • I really don't think he works for "Russia" per se, he works for his clique of grifters and is genuinely deluded into believing Russia and Putin are stronger and more capable than they are - and better suited to benefit him personally. In the end, he works for himself and his close circle of capitalists, already speculating on a recession.

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