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Trump's "final offer" for peace requires Ukraine to accept Russian occupation

www.axios.com

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The U.S. expects Ukraine's response Wednesday to a peace framework that includes U.S. recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and unofficial recognition of Russian control of nearly all areas occupied since the 2022 invasion, sources with direct knowledge of the proposal tell Axios.

Why it matters: The one-page document the U.S. presented Ukrainian officials in Paris last week describes this as Trump's "final offer." The White House insists it's ready to walk away if the parties don't make a deal soon.

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Trump's "final offer" for peace requires Ukraine to accept Russian occupation

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Trump's "final offer" for peace requires Ukraine to accept Russian occupation

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Axios: Trump's "final offer" for peace requires Ukraine to accept Russian occupation

87 comments
  • From the article:

    "De jure" U.S. recognition of Russian control in Crimea.

    That would contravene the Budapest memorandum, in which other signatories (including the US) promise to "Respect the signatory's independence and sovereignty in the existing borders". Most likely, the president of Ukraine cannot simply sign this, but is required by constitution to hold a referendum. Which is not possible in war time. So to my understnading, this point sabotages the rest entirely. Ukraine cannot sign and ratify this, and consequently won't.

    "De-facto recognition" of the Russia's occupation of nearly all of Luhansk oblast and the occupied portions of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

    That would be merely untenable for Ukraine.

    The lifting of sanctions imposed since 2014. / Enhanced economic cooperation with the U.S., particularly in the energy and industrial sectors.

    That would be active cooperation with the agressor.

    I'm not sure if my crystal ball is cheap glass or a real palantir, but I see this proposal in the paper bin. I see the US overstepping promises made in better times. As a consequence, I also see certain European countries give zero damns about which weapons systems contain US components, and give those systems to Ukraine while they re-arm themselves with locally made items.

  • Give them back Crimea, fuck back off to Russia and maybe we can talk about peace

  • I love his Trump thinks he can call the shots, guy is a fucking dipshit honestly get fucked.

  • Under the spineless fickle Trump in 2018...

    "Russia, through its 2014 invasion of Ukraine and its attempted annexation of Crimea, sought to undermine a bedrock international principle shared by democratic states: that no country can change the borders of another by force. The states of the world, including Russia, agreed to this principle in the United Nations Charter, pledging to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state. This fundamental principle — which was reaffirmed in the Helsinki Final Act — constitutes one of the foundations upon which our shared security and safety rests.

    As we did in the Welles Declaration in 1940, the United States reaffirms as policy its refusal to recognize the Kremlin’s claims of sovereignty over territory seized by force in contravention of international law. In concert with allies, partners, and the international community, the United States rejects Russia’s attempted annexation of Crimea and pledges to maintain this policy until Ukraine’s territorial integrity is restored.

    The United States calls on Russia to respect the principles to which it has long claimed to adhere and to end its occupation of Crimea. As democratic states seek to build a free, just, and prosperous world, we must uphold our commitment to the international principle of sovereign equality and respect the territorial integrity of other states. Through its actions, Russia has acted in a manner unworthy of a great nation and has chosen to isolate itself from the international community.

    Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State

    Washington, DC

    July 25, 2018 "

    https://2017-2021.state.gov/crimea-declaration/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBowsaYJbr4

  • Wasn't it always the case, though? Wasn't he always implying that "Ukraine better be ready to lose some land" - aka we don't know how to force Russia out of the lands it already invaded? Or how to balance the clear conflict of interests between aiding Ukraine stop an invasion and Trump's agenda of getting the US closer to Russia as an economic ally?

    Funny. The only difference I see is that he is now fully committed to make Ukraine capitulate by any means he can, perhaps in a last ditch effort to get that mineral deal since he needs it more now due to China stopping the mineral supply. Notice how he only began this ultimatum right after China stopped the minerals. Not suspicious timing at all.

    In any case, better for incompetents to step away than fumbling the game even worse than they already did since taking office. Some "help" simply isn't worth the cost. Europe and any other allies of freedom will see this through, one way or another.

    Just don't come begging for rewards or reparations once Russia's imperialist ambitions are stopped. The US is only owed what it contributed until Biden left (and the real value, not the overinflated one), plus a nice good discount for the Trump admin's interference and undermining Ukraine. And that's being generous.

    • I want to note on the "mineral deal" thing that access to rare earth minerals has nothing to do with China's ability to constrain their supply to the US, because getting rare earth minerals is actually relatively easy. They're found all over the Earth, although some areas do have better naturally occurring concentrations than others. Mostly, though, it's just a matter of finding a nice large swathe of land that you can easily strip-mine.

      The problem is refining them. Digging up a bunch of soil and rock is easy, getting the trace amounts of rare (hence why they're called that) earth minerals out of the soil and rock is really hard. While it's true that China does dominate in rare earth extraction, it really wouldn't be all that hard for other countries to catch up to them on that score if they wanted to. But the reason China controls the worlds rare earth supply is because they also dominate in refining, which is extremely difficult, technically complex, and not easy to replicate due to the highly specialised nature of rare earth refineries.

      Trump can get access to all the unprocessed rare earth minerals he likes, but it won't solve his current problems. First off, even if Ukraine were at peace tomorrow it would take most of a decade to prospect those mineral deposits and begin extracting them at scale. But even then, it doesn't solve the refining problem. You'd just be selling the raw deposits to China so that they can refine them and sell the refined product back to you at a huge profit.

      • Thank you for the input. Given the current US admin's way of doing things, I have to wonder if they really see the problem in its entirety, or a crudely simplified version of it.

        I mean, these are the same people who started a global trade war to get manufacturing over to the US, as if that would magically happen overnight or even with the high amount of uncertainty for business investments. It really seems to them the simplest solutions are the best ones - flip the tariff switch and done, problem solved, the US is great again after "a brief period of hurt" (whatever that specifically means), as if there weren't a million nuances to the current workings of world global societies.

        Anyways, regardless of the how's and why's, we can only guess what goes on on the heads of these people...

  • The great dealmaker gives up on peace deal after failing to negotiate with Russia and just tells Ukraine to bend over…

  • What does unofficial recognition mean? Can a country do anything unofficially?

87 comments