Trump is “desperate” to make a deal—China isn’t, analysts say
Trump is “desperate” to make a deal—China isn’t, analysts say
arstechnica.com
Trump is “desperate” to make a deal—China isn’t, analysts say
104 comments
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My eyes....they burn
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Not enough eyeliner
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This has been texted to some people 🤗
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They've called your bluff, buddy and now you're going to have to take an absolute beating of a lifetime. Enjoy!
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Not him, he'll take whatever he can get and sell it to his cultists as the world's greatest deal.
As usual, it's the US taking the beating ...
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The tariffs will be something Biden put in place and Trump removed to save the economy within a week.
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I will say, lots of people in my state remember the 2008 Economic Crisis as being caused by Obama.
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Why would China be desperate?
China offers the cheapest high spec manufacturing in the world. If the US doesn’t buy that manufacturing, that leaves the rest of the world. Of course China wants American money, but it’s not going to devastate their economy in the short term. It’s a reasonable cost for providing China with so many opportunities, which they are aggressively pursuing, to cultivate deep seated international power.
The prevalence of Chinese manufacturing actually is a national problem for the US. While China has its pick of buyers, the US is stuck with one seller. The US should have been working for twenty years with India, Pakistan, Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, and maybe even some counties in Africa to create access to alternatives. It didn’t.
Weaning the US off Chinese manufacturing would take decades of elegant economic policy and diplomacy featuring several countries. China knows this is where it actually has power over the US.
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I have worked professionally with Chinese vendors and suppliers for years, both pre and post COVID. China offers the whole range of manufacturing, not just cheap labor but high tech and precision devices too. You want cheap injection molded toys for Happy Meals? Done. Precision machine tools for CNC? Can do. Medical imaging devices? No problem. Mass assembly of automotive cable looms? Easy. If a business wants quality product from China they can do it.
And much like the classic European model where a textile or steel industry would collect in a valley for logistic/resource reasons and organically form an industrial ‘core’ the same is true in China, but with a centralized planned economy. Vocational schools feed local industry with skilled workers like engineers or tool and die makers, so that region experiences further and further specialization and conglomeration.
There’s no coherent or comparable manufacturing:educational alliance in the US, closest we have is ‘feeder schools’ that partner with individual industrial/scientific giants on an ad-hoc basis.
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I hope they don't back down, even if that orange whimp ends up pulling back the tariffs. Don't re-engage with the US until they elect a decent leader. They should really feel the impact of electing such a moron for a internationally significant role.
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Yep. If America doesn't have a severe depression &/or civil war, the mental illness of MAGA will continue destroying the country from within, and wreaking havoc with global stability.
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I think that underestimates the extent to which the Chinese economy is vulnerable to reduced demand from foreign partners. I'm not saying China's in a worse position than the US, since the US has a blithering imbecile traitor as President. But they're not invulnerable to economic shocks either.
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Part of my company's plan to weather the trade war was to stock up and wait for our competition to be priced out. We also expect the factories in China that supplied our competitors will shut down too. There is a ton of spare capacity with some of them and they work on slim margins. Even a short term downturn of orders can push many to close.
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China will definitely suffer, but it also doesn't care. Public opinion supporting its actions are not a priority in China. Trump is starting to feel the bite his stupidity has taken him. Not sure if he understands completely, but he's getting an idea that he'll wear the blame. Not from the Maga, but from everyone else.
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Also, China has a shitload of US debt that they can use as leverage
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Which makes the debt ceiling fight that's coming up even more interesting. (article from March 24th)
The U.S. is most likely to default on its $36 trillion national debt sometime between mid-July and early October if Congress doesn’t act, the Bipartisan Policy Center predicted Monday.
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Debt limit forecasters are expected to release a narrower X-date prediction after most tax receipts have landed at the IRS in April. While it’s “quite unlikely,” there is still a possibility that the U.S. could run out of borrowing power in early June if that gush of tax revenue comes in far below projections, the Bipartisan Policy Center cautioned.
The cost-cutting efforts of the Department of Government Efficiency effort headed by Elon Musk could also affect cash flow enough to change the X-date prediction, along with the strength of the economy, tariffs and any new spending or cuts Congress approves, the center said.
Given how DOGE is inflating it's cost cutting savings by over $140 Billion, the tariff trade war, and congress' habit of pushing things to the brink when their luck is going to run out sooner or later -- this could get ugly quick.
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Which is why Trump tried to declare it void, as a very stupid person.
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Also, despite how much Trump wants to pretend he's a dictator, he's not. Both Congress and the Supreme Court have the power to stop this tariff idiocy at any point if the consequences get to be too bad. Xi is actually a dictator and the likelihood of any other power base overriding him is slim to none.
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You're absolutely correct on the US topic, but one comment on the Chinese side: China does suffer from an excess of export focused production. Their excess of production capacity is artificial (created by Goverent investment) and has resulted in the need for continued Government cash injections.
The Chinese government investment injection has resulted in significant leads in at least two international markets (EV, and solar panels perhaps batteries by volume.) The cost has been a parge amount for waste and loss of public money (there were a lot of of losses in their recent tech/chip investment for example.)
These losses came at a hard time when the general popilation was suffering from significant equity loss, mainly real estate. There is an argument to make that trying to spur the domestic market would be better than investing in overcapacity.
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...You understand the primary market for Chinese products, especially ev and solar, is Chinese citizens, right?
Its not even close.
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These losses came at a hard time when the general popilation was suffering from significant equity loss, mainly real estate
Is this a reference to the 99 year leases people can get instead of full ownership or the citizens investment into big housing projects that some say are scams?
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The Art of the Deal:
- Behave recklessly and make threats to destroy the global economy
- Get pushback from allies
- Reverse course for allies, but behave even more recklessly against rival
- Rival realizes you don’t know what you’re doing
- Beg rival to engage
- Rival refuses
- Take insanely reckless actions toward rival
- Rival stands firm
- Get told by billionaires that you’re messing with their profits and, as a side note, domestic stability
- Reverse course for rivals, look incredibly weak and get exposed for not having a clue what you’re doing on the global stage
- ?????????????????
- Make America Great Again
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Make America Great Depression Again
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Gonna party like its 1929!
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Why would they be?
Trump has effectively handed all of the USA's soft power over to the EU, China & Russia, depending on the part of the planet we are discussing.
All of it.
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Not really "handed" over" as much as made it disappear. It's up to other countries to fill the vacuum.
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It's like he's NOT a deal maker, but some kind of absolutely unqualified idiot!
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mostly to china, as they have the most leverage right now. russia is heavily codependant on USA surprisingly.
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Worse. This is really a "don't negotiate with terrorists" situation. Trump could have gone to the Chinese, and any other country, and said, "look, this isn't working. We need to renegotiate our trade deals." Public opinion has soured enough on free trade that Trump likely could get some legitimate tariff package or set of new trade deals through. The public generally likes the idea of not trading so much with China. The problem is Trump is trying to do this via decree and blackmail. He thinks that by cutting off trade overnight, he can coerce China into giving the US favorable terms.
But all this shows is that the US is an unreliable partner that is willing to back on its word at any moment. Nations can renegotiate trade deals. That isn't some unprecedented violation of international norms. But it's common sense to do these things slowly, giving both nations time to adapt their economies to the new conditions. You can't just cut this level of trade off cold turkey without causing a global depression.
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It was always eventually going to come down to US vs China for economic leadership of the world. Trump ceded that fight. Or accelerated it in a way that makes real conflict a greater concern than it was before, depending on the aggression/militarism of future administrations.
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Trump accelerated. Idiot
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He needs a W and has pissed off anyone capable of giving him one.
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He abuses people hardest to try to force them to submit. It may work with some of his business deals but in international politics with an economic superpower? What a clown.
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China nailed the "never interrupt your enemy while he's in the midst of making a mistake" strategy. Trump absolutely weakened his position.
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they had sun tzu, and china has always see the long picture of thier policies. despite what they say about taiwan, they at least know trying to attack taiwan would hurt them economically. china also has russia by the balls because they bought certain resource rights in siberia. USA anti-communism, chinese was the reason why CHina was able to develop the HYDROGEN bomb so quickly, basically they scared a specific nuclear scientist he fled to china and help the ccp go from fission to fusion very quickly.
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They might have Sun Tzu, but he has big poo, the biggest and smelliest.
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Trump is desperate.
No quotes or further words needed.
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Mussolini his ass already.
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Do not back down China! I love to see that dumbass flounder like the fat toxic fish he is.
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It probably goes without saying at this point, but deporting someone to a culture in which they're not competent is wildly immoral, and doing so in such a way that they end up encarcerated in subhuman conditions especially despite not committing a crime in that jurisdiction is monstrous.
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If he doesn't die of old age in his second term, he will die in prison after. Along with a good part of his cronies.
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I hope you're right, but he would be the first to do so in a very long time.
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If you ignore the morality, it is also supremely stupid. Killing your citizens and stealing their stuff might be a "shot in the arm" for a terrible nation, but it also means all of the skills and support they could offer the nation is gone.
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Yeah, but that's a future people problem. We've got only a few years left. Our immediate family is set for life, if not multiple generations. What more could we want? [Speaking from the imagined perspective of oligarchs]
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He's playing poker with the Chinese who love gambling and he's also an idiot who thinks he's a great gambler while holding all his cards backwards
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And then yells "go fish".
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I think he also said that so many countries have called him to “kiss his ass” due to the tariffs.
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Fart of the seal 🦭💨
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The Art of the Kneel.
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Trump is the jealous ex who thought they would find someone better after breaking up with you
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FAFO.
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Jesus Christ Donald Trump sucks.
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Like we didn't know that Trump wants to make a deal, lets not fool our self's! China has the upper hand and Trump can do nothing ATM.
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Gotta know when to hold 'em...
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Trumps tactics only work on weak people like himself. In addition to that is china's history of dealing with others.
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VIXY all the wayyyyy baybay
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Trump and Jinping are playing a game of chicken and Trump has already slammed on the brakes while Jinping still has 1000m of track left in front of him.
If I were them, I wouldn't make a deal either - Trump had to be reminded by all the big box giants just how much he needs cheap Chinese goods to keep the shelves stocked. They have all the power and hold a shit ton of US national debt so they can wait out a trade war indefinitely while Trump will use any tariff profits to bail out farmers and other industries impacted by them not being able to sell to China at a 140% markup or whatever they set their nonsensical made-up tariff rates at.
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Trump will use any tariff profits to bail out farmers and other industries impacted
I remember when UK right wing lying populist Boris Johnson (who only really cares about himself) promised to bail out farmers and other industries adversely affected by his insane isolationist Brexit policy.
Here's US right wing lying populist Donald Trump (who only really cares about himself) and you think he's gonna bail out farmers and other industries adversely affected by his insane isolationist global trade war policy?
Why would he do that?
What have farmers got to offer Trump?
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Yeah, a Trump never pays his bills, so why would he start paying other people's bills?
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Why would he do that?
It's not why, but when. He already did this during his first term, the first time he started a trade war with China (which he lost).
He didn't bail out the farmers because he actually cares about them, but because there was an election in 2020 that he was trying to win and needed their support.
Remains to be seen if he will bother to help them again this time. He's talking about a 3rd term and other frightening shit, but his second term has been moving so fast that I'd like to think he doesn't care about what the public thinks anymore, he just wants to extract as much value of of the position as possible.
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104 comments