The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024
The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024
In a presidential contest cycle, Senate races don’t get the same kind of attention when there’s still a year to go until Election Day. But the start of the second fundraising quarter earlier this month brought a host of new candidate names – some declared and some still biding their time – that will...
- West Virginia - Incumbent: Democrat Joe Manchin
- Montana - Incumbent: Democrat Jon Tester
- Ohio - Incumbent: Democrat Sherrod Brown
- Arizona - Incumbent: Independent Kyrsten Sinema
- Nevada - Incumbent: Democrat Jacky Rosen
- Wisconsin - Incumbent: Democrat Tammy Baldwin
- Pennsylvania - Incumbent: Democrat Bob Casey
- Michigan - Incumbent: Democrat Debbie Stabenow (retiring)
- Texas - Incumbent: Republican Ted Cruz
- Florida - Incumbent: Republican Rick Scott
Flip is supposed to mean from one party to the other but I doubt Michigan is going to elect an R to replace Stabenow.
And I doubt PA will elect a Republican, especially in a presidential election year.
Also unlikely that Arizona will replace Sinema with a Republican.
Still, Democrats certainly have their work cut out for them to retain control of the Senate this cycle. Will probably be a lot easier to flip the House and retain the Presidency.
Doubt that Manchin and Tester will be reelected. That in itself would flip the Senate if everything else stays the same.
Also unlikely that Arizona will replace Sinema with a Republican.
Still, Democrats certainly have their work cut out for them to retain control of the Senate this cycle. Will probably be a lot easier to flip the House and retain the Presidency.
I can attest to the seat for Ohio. Gerrymandering and Trumpism have turned this state red, when by most accounts it should have more variety. After seeing friggin J.D. Vance somehow getting elected albeit offering nothing other than support for Trump, then I can't see anyone blue winning the Senate seat until redistricting is finalized and fairer.
Gerrymandering really shouldn't impact state-wide races, mathematically, but it sure feels like it breeds a combination of complacency and defeatism that overcomes the math.
Gerrymandering does affect the smaller races that choose the people that make the election rules. These rules then effect how easy it is for those who can’t afford the time off work to queue for hours in their populated city, vs. the rancher who can go to his polling place when he needs and there will be no queue.
Or things like this:
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/27/texas-voting-elections-mail-in-drop-off/
What does redistricting have to do with a Senate seat?
People in the "minority" party districts get complacent that their district will be safe so there's lower turnout (Harris County in Tx, 3rd largest county in the country, heavily Democratic, had under 50% turnout in the 2020 elections). People in "majority" party districts feel like there's no hope they'll be represented, so they give up and don't vote.
For Arizona, does that mean it'll go from whatever Sinema is to Dem?
Let's hope so.
Just another centrist prob
If Trump is running no Democrat will lose their seat.
Let's not get overconfident. The worst of his behavior has yet to reduce his popularity.
I don't even think convictions would impact his followers, they are just nuts.
I wouldn't go that far. At this point, demographics, political inertia, and Manchin's growing local unpopularity basically mean WV is a lost cause barring some miracle