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  • A lottery ticket because it can provide momentarily some fun and excitement while the equivalent of a dollar can not.

    Edit: *five dollars. I'd still pick the lottery ticket because why not.

    • But with the cash you've got options. You could still place a bet on something if you wanted if you wanted that moment of excitement. You've just now got the option to pick something that has better odds or something you think you have some knowledge about than a completely random lottery.

  • A mega sena (popular lottery ticket in Brazil) costs five reals if you fill it with six numbers. So I'd certainly pick the 5 reals bill, as the expected value per real is always smaller.

    The picture changes if the ticket was filled with more numbers; if you hit any six then you get the jackpot, and it's accordingly more expensive (seven numbers for R$35,00; eight for R$140,00). For those I'd need to do the maths, but there are complicating factors:

    • if multiple people hit the jackpot, the prize gets split
    • there's a secondary prize if you hit five numbers, and a tertiary one if you hit four
    • the jackpot varies quite a bit from one draw to another, as it accumulates if nobody hit it in the previous draw

    To simplify it: let's say that only the primary prize counts, it's around 30 million reals (typical value), and that your odds are one in 50 million. Then the expected value becomes:

    • with 6 numbers: R$30M/50M = R$0,60
    • with 7 numbers: 7(R$0,60) = R$4,20
    • with 8 numbers: 8(R$4,20) = R$33,60

    The five reals bill is still more valuable than a mega sena ticket with seven numbers, even if it costs R$35. But if it was eight, I'd pick the ticket.

  • Internet says a New York Powerball ticket costs $2 to $3 so I'll be taking the $5 thanks a lot street man

    • The ticket in the picture has 5 plays which means it's at least $10, $15 with powerplay or double play, or $20 with both. If the ticket in the picture isn't what we're getting then it can range from the $2 single play ticket to an $800 ticket with 20 plays at $4/play ($2 + $1powerplay + $1double play) for 10 draws (at least that's what I could get here in Iowa, the max amount of draws on a ticket is per-state).

  • That sounds hella sus... I'm not sure I'd take either, fearing some scam? At worst I lose out on $5 or whatever, while at best I avoid whatever would have happened had I accepted.

    Yeah, life makes you jaded doesn't it? :-P

29 comments