I wasn't worried about climate change. Now I am.
I wasn't worried about climate change. Now I am.
Research paper referenced in the video that makes Dr. Hossenfelder very worried:
Global warming in the pipeline: https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889
Abstract
Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensitivity 1.2 ± 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2, which is 4.8°C ± 1.2°C for doubled CO2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era—including ‘slow’ feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases—supports this sensitivity and implies that CO2 was 300–350 ppm in the Pliocene and about 450 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10°C, which is reduced to 8°C by today’s human-made aerosols. Equilibrium warming is not ‘committed’ warming; rapid phaseout of GHG emissions would prevent most equilibrium warming from occurring. However, decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade. Thus, under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: (1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable, dispatchable clean energy, (2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and (3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate. Current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation.
My basic summary (I am NOT a climate scientist so someone tell me if I'm wrong and I HOPE this is wrong for my children), scientists had dismissed hotter climate models due to the fact that we didn't have historical data to prove them. Now folks are applying hotter models to predicting weather and the hotter models appear to be more accurate. So it looks like we're going to break 2C BEFORE 2050 and could hit highs of 8C-10C by the end of the century with our CURRENT levels of green house gases, not even including increasing those.
EDIT: Adding more sources:
Use of Short-Range Forecasts to Evaluate Fast Physics Processes Relevant for Climate Sensitivity: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019MS001986
Short-term tests validate long-term estimates of climate change: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01484-5
I've watched Sabine for awhile, she's a really great science reporter who keeps things simple and pretty brief. Just a note though, I feel like she sometimes takes very skeptical and conservative views on some subjects where she doesn't really have any expertise. It also makes me kind of uncomfortable how she seems to be obsessed with Elon Musk, she mentions him in basically every video.
Despite all that, she's pretty great, check her out, just keep in mind she talks about a lot of things she isn't an expert in.
World Economic Forum: Global freshwater demand will exceed supply 40% by 2030, experts warn
UN Food and Agriculture Organization: 90% Of The Earth’s Topsoil Is At Risk Of Depletion By 2050
Humanity isn't going to make it out of the century.
It is insane that there are scientists out there that weren't worried about climate change until now. And dissappointing that Sabine was apparently one of them.
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Damn, as if the outlook wasn't already bad enough
Because maybe people are feeling like this is all very questionable.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not denying climate change on a larger scale, I'm just saying that most of the studies that were used to say there's climate change and to push policies such as reducing the production of meat are, most likely, made to support such policy changes that in reality aren't driven by climate change but by some other economic / market factor.
Take a look at this: https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL1N2XW1LX/
Meme comparing jugs of water and ice does not prove sea level rise is a hoax The meme is not proof that melting ice sheets do not cause sea levels to rise, however, and does not accurately represent the change in volume when land-based ice melts into the oceans. “The correct analogy for land ice melting isn't showing ice floating in a glass of ice water, it's adding a whole bunch of new ice to the glass,”
While the meme clearly fails to take in account all that mass of ice that sits on land it still has some truth to it because people like Al Gore said "I predict all ice caps will melt by 2014" something that we now know wasn't true.
Details, as usual, are very important and people like Al Gore carefully cherry-picked them in order to build their arguments and sell a view of the world that wasn't close the reality of things. We've been on this path with governments, public figures and large companies for a while now and people are just fed up of it all - that's why she gets downvotes on her videos.