Bulletins and News Discussion from April 8th to April 14th, 2024 - First Iran-Israel War Megathread
Iran has struck Israel.
previous preamble
The continuing fall of the remains of the British Empire is pretty entertaining from the outside: an archaic royal family that is seemingly being smote with disease by God itself for their past crimes; a navy that virtually no longer functions, ramming into foreign ports and under constant repair; and an economy that cannot seem to stop sputtering, fucked whether they're in the EU or outside it. Watching the impacts on people from the inside is a little more worrying, though.
A fifth of the population is in poverty, including nearly a third of all children. These figures have barely shifted since the Labour government in the early 2000s, aside from a decreasing poverty rate for pensioners. Actually, poverty hasn't substantially shifted since Margaret Thatcher. Before her, the poverty rate was around 14%, but her catastrophic policies caused a major increase, and poverty levels since then are still 50% higher than over 50 years ago, because neoliberal economic policy since then has not fundamentally changed. Parties and corporations have impoverished the usual vulnerable groups, such as large families, minority ethnic groups (including half of Pakistani and Bangladeshi households!) and disabled people. These differences are also regional, with the North more impoverished than the richer Southeast (but some of the poorest boroughs are in London, so it's a complex pattern).
With Corbyn's defeat in 2019 mere months before the pandemic began, the Labour Party shifted back towards the right, with left-wingers purged from the party if they did not kowtow to Keir Starmer. This leaves us with a situation where the only substantial difference between the two parties would be on social policy, but it goes without saying that economic policy is the overwhelming factor that determines if minorities can have a decent life. Worker-oriented movements since then have been largely not under the umbrella of major party leaderships, such as the Don't Pay movement in late 2022 that arose in the wake of dramatically rising energy prices where 3 million people vowed to not pay them (which did lead to results).
Most notably recently is the major upset in the constituency of Rochdale - the victory of George Galloway - who is the leader of the Workers Party of Britain, which describes itself as both socialist and socially conservative. This took place both in the context of aforementioned economic troubles, as well as anger over Israel's genocide of Gaza in the British population, especially in British Muslims. It remains to be seen how much of this is an isolated event, especially as Corbyn has, understandably, refused to collaborate with Galloway due to his socially conservative stances. The UK general election will be held at some point within the next 9 months or so, and might well be a shitshow depending on what happens domestically and geopolitically before then; parallels to the current American electoral shitshow with increasing anger over Biden are pretty apparent. The Conservatives are quite likely to lose given 14 years of uninspired rule if current polling is correct, but it truly is a race to the bottom.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is the United Kingdom! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section. Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war. Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
I’m starting to feel concerned that the US is going to respond to this disproportionately. Like, the Zionist-in-Chief is going to try make this Iraq 3.0 and try to have full US military involvement for everything but boots on the ground in Iran i.e. massive amounts of US missiles fired from US cruisers at military targets in Iran, plus US fighters/bombers all over Iranian airspace.
The thing with American Zionists like Biden is they see attacks on “israel” as an attack on the US. Maybe even worse than an attack on the US, because they see “israel” as the smol bean underdog surrounded by those scary brown people.
of course they're going to respond to this disproportionally, but the last two years has been a series of Western military embarrassments and I don't expect them to suddenly start deciding to be capable now.
If they can't stop Yemen, then they can't stop Iran.
No, definitely not. That Iraq reference was pretty opaque, I was referring more to banging to war drum, amping up the patriotism to 11, and trying to convince the public that a war with Iran is what must be done.
Dunno. Biden's already very very unpopular with everyone of the appropriate age to pick up a rifle. Not sure how much room he has to pull that shit when everyone under 30 knows he's committing genocide.
I genuinely believe the US has the materiel in the USAF to make a big mess wherever it chooses, but not everywhere it chooses, so it has to be damn sure that deploying its air power is the exact singular strategic move it needs to make. If it's wrong, it becomes the middle of the end for the US military. And it's very difficult for it to be right when there are no known defenses against anti-ship hypersonics. If it deployed it's air power to begin a carpet bombing campaign, those planes aren't going to be able to land anywhere because the carriers are all going to be wiped out.
Remember, Russia's military is now bigger than when it launched the SMO on its Ukrainian border. It didn't deploy even half of its power there. China hasn't deployed anything yet. Iran has been selling hypersonics to Venezuela. The Axis of Resistance has reserves.
And think of who didn't have reserves: Gaza, Niger, Iraq. Go further back in time, Afghanistan. Go back to the 70s, Vietnam. Go back to the 50s, Korea. Korea got it the worst, and they still ended up with a nuclear deterrent. Vietnam defeated the entire joint forces with a peasant army. Afghanistan just waited the USA out for 20 years and the occupiers left without any long-term strategic gains. Iraq is pushing the USA out. Niger is pushing France out. And the Palestinians have been managing to defeat the IOF in every non-air encounter, defeat the Iron Dome, and literally create defenses that the IOF couldn't breach. Israel is holding back on fully invading Rafa because its strategic assessment is that they will suffer far too many losses.
And lastly, look at Ukraine. It's over.
I was worried about the USA using a nuke like the sick fucks they are, but someone talked me down from that recently by explaining the morality of MAD - it is literally the moral obligation of nuclear armed states to glass whoever launches the first strike because if they don't, then humanity lives under nuclear terror for the rest of its short existence. So I think nukes are out.
The USA can't launch a ground invasion. A) they don't have the ammo, B) they don't have enough soldiers, C) they're intelligence has been failing them, D) the area is too big, E) especially West Asia, but all of the Axis of Resistance have demonstrated that the USA cannot win against guerillas.