Could Tesla Go Bankrupt? The Odds Are Rising
Could Tesla Go Bankrupt? The Odds Are Rising
With Tesla's "Next-Gen" compact model on the back burner, its aging Models 3 & Y will drag down earnings with increasing needs for price cuts. Cash could run out.
This is some good looking analysis on Tesla's current problems.
I don't know if "Bankruptcy" is a word to be thrown out right now. But it is clear that the Cybertruck is a dud, the Model 2 is allegedly cancelled, and the Model 3 Highland refresh barely moved the needle.
Finally, TSLA sold fewer cars in Q1 2024 while the overall car market grew in sales. It could be an EV-only blip or problem, but in any case, its a clear problem for Tesla.
Overall, the substack article stays focused on GM, Chrysler, and Nissan and how these 2008-era and 1999-era bankruptcies have similarities to Tesla's troubles today. It seems a bit hyperbolic, but it overall seems like a good read.
I wonder if getting the shareholders to approve a $56 billion payday for Musk and HQ move to Texas will salvage things.
It’s that kind of outside-the-box thinking that’s going to save them.
The article's author failed to see that solution!
Interesting read. I did not realise that they need 100B usd to cover the next 4 years. They burn cash very fast. Their vertical integration factories can bite back very hard if they can't keep up demand. So much for Tesla schooling The rest of the industry on how to build cars.. maybe the old dogs do know something after all..
I hope it goes well and they figure something out, oustin Mr Musk from the company seems like the best short term decision to save the company long term and definitely not paying the 55b usd bonus, that sounds more and more like an exit strategy for Mr Musk.
They have a strong brand, and had a strong lineup just a few years ago.. I think they can figure it out. They will wipe out many peoples 401ks if they go bankrupt, that will be ugly for everyone involved, and 140 000 people will loose their jobs
I live in Norway which has become a mature EV market thanks to subsidies. The things that come out of china these days compared with the catchup from established EU/Japanese brands might also have something to do with it. China is subsidizing it's auto industry pretty hard, and they do make decent cars.
Yes, i mean I can only look to myself as a consumer. Tesla ticks alot of boxes, and the lower the prices get the better it gets. They are still competitive and I consider them. But I see what the others are doing and what trim levels you get from the competition. Now I can get my leather seats and foldable towbar and sounds systems and massage seats and all the other goodies I am used to in my vehicle. In the end Tesla can't solve everything with a OTA updates, and selfdriving is cool, but there are other options I want in my car that is not all about software. I feel they put all the eggs in one basket.
We will see when I am looking for my next car in about two years time! It will be very interesting, and I am not complaining about more options.
Lol Tesla schooling the car industry on how to make cars? That's never been the case and only marketing talk.
After Musk bought into Tesla, he pushed very hard for fully automated factories, even though everyone said it couldn't be done. Now this isn't just people being negative, they said it couldn't be done because existing car brands already had very highly automated factories at the time. They put in billions each year to improve their factories, but there were issues that were too hard to solve.
But Musk being Musk pushed on anyways and almost destroyed the company. Factories had issues across the board from simple volume, to scheduling, to quality and downtime. And this was with full disregard to safety and hours of the staff working there. In the end they needed to do something or the company would go bust.
So they made a deal with Toyota to basically buy an entire Toyota factory. In the industry Toyota is known as one of the best brands when it comes to this kind of thing. Their factories are highly automated, run like clockwork and produce good quality without a lot of costs. This saved Tesla, allowing them to actually produce cars and not go bust. They started to deliver on volume promises which was desperately needed at the time.
In the end the Toyota partnership was short lived, with Toyota pulling out. But Tesla still has that factory and based the rest of their factories on that one. The push for fully automated factories stopped and for a while it was run like a sane company.
So no Tesla never schooled anybody and were almost destroyed by the effort. But as the saying goes, that isn't a story the Musk fanboys would tell you.
Recently Musk's terrible financial decisions have almost destroyed Tesla and the company will probably be sold within the next 2 years.
Oh. Thanks for the information, I read up about it after your post and it checks out. I will have to confess that most of my information come definitely from a fanboy at work, he told me they where something like 50% more efficient and producing cars than the rest of the industry. Although I never understood that number came from or what he measured against I also never questioned it. I just assumed the truth was somewhere between probably having a few cleaver logistical/production solutions and being just an average car producer.
Exactly. I’m an industrial engineer in an automotive heavy state. Fully automated factories are a wonderful ideal. And it’s worth throwing a lot of money at engineers to design your new factory as as automated as possible. But fully automated is a dangerous constraint and you should be discussing it with experts before committing to it. We just aren’t there yet, and we certainly weren’t there then.
He’s the type to play too much factorio and decide to do this
definitely not paying the 55b usd bonus, that sounds more and more like an exit strategy for Mr Musk.
Pretty sure that’s not cash. That’s $55B USB worth of stock, at current prices. I think the argument is that he needs to fix the company enough to keep the stock high, if he wants that money
Tesla's inclusion into the S&P 500 was a huge mistake. I wonder how that was allowed to happen.
People would warm to Tesla again if Musk were to sell them so that his bad reputation could be distanced from the actual engineering
Musk doesn't need to sell his shares. The board just needs to fire him as CEO.
Maybe some investments in doge coin would help it diversify its asset portfolio
I wonder how well their cars work when the Tesla servers go offline
Is this why Musk is trying to cash out with a huge pay package? Get his $ and blame someone/thing else for Tesla’s problems?
People have been saying this for Tesla's entire life, and it's yet to happen. They're in a bit of a slump, but I very much doubt they'll go bankrupt outright.
People have been saying this for Tesla's entire life, and it's yet to happen.
Because for the entire life, it's been burning new venture capital. Musk has one big talent, and that's lying to people in order to get them to give money.
Tesla's profit, for the years they actually made profit, has been roughly equal to the carbon credits they sold. That means purely on production and sales, they're barely breaking even. That is, of course, assuming they don't do something monumentally stupid like giving Musk his 55 billion dollar bonus, which will wipe out every dime of profit they've ever made.
That is, of course, assuming they don't do something monumentally stupid like giving Musk his 55 billion dollar bonus, which will wipe out every dime of profit they've ever made.
Or building a polarizing (fugly) truck that is impossible to efficiently and reliably produce quickly enough to meet the inflated demand Musk created by lying about its capabilities and features?
their only selling point is that they make fast electric cars. once the rest of the industry catches up (and they're catching up quick) they'll have nothing but poor build quality and cult of personality worship.
How short is Bill again?