The only way he gets ousted is if all Democrats vote it as well. These articles assume that will be the case, but things are a bit different than with McCarthy. Time will tell, but I don't know if the Dems would all vote for it at this point. They may even do the opposite just to fuck with the far right members who are gunning for him, which would be fucking hilarious imo
If that happens, the Dems have a more than decent chance of taking control of the house since so many Republicans have left recently. It only takes a couple to break ranks and the Dems have a majority. If that happens though, the Repubs will just go on the offensive blaming everything they have done to prevent anything from actually being passed this entire cycle on whatever Dem Speaker is in place. And their base will eat it up because they just accept what they're told at face value.
The better option is just to leave Mike in place and guarantee his position as long as he's willing to compromise a bit. Note how Mike no longer looked like he was a hostage when he announced the recent Ukraine aid. Hold that over his head to force him to work with the Dems until the election.
As funny as a mid session flip would be, this is probably the play. Dems rescuing republicans from their own dysfunctionality is such a bad look for the majority, and basically guarantees a flip next election.
scuttlebutt has been that the second the vote to vacate is triggered, 4 house republicans would immediately resign, putting democrats in the majority. there would be no more republicans in charge and we get a functional house with speaker hakeem jeffries for the next 8 months at least.
You can, but its a pretty bad look to be very publicly demoted and then just stick around. Better to go out on a high note as "a house speaker" instead of "a Congressman."