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77% of Top Climate Scientists Think 2.5°C of Warming Is Coming—And They're Horrified
  • Yes, just solar. Hydro is bigger now, but it doesn't have the growing potential. Wind is currently also growing exponential, but I don't see it doing that for 20 more years. And even if it does, it doesn't really make a big difference since exponential + exponential is still exponential. If it grows as fast as solar that would mean we're just a few years ahead of the curve.

  • 77% of Top Climate Scientists Think 2.5°C of Warming Is Coming—And They're Horrified
  • Here you go, you'll need numpy, scipy and matplotlib:

    from scipy.optimize import curve_fit
    from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
    
    # 2010-2013 data from https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy [TWh]
    y = np.array([32, 63, 97, 132, 198, 256, 328, 445, 575, 659, 853, 1055, 1323, 1629])
    x = np.arange(0, len(y))
    
    # function we expect the data to fit
    fit_func = lambda x, a, b, c: a * np.exp2(b * x ) + c
    popt, _ = curve_fit(fit_func, x, y, maxfev=5000)
    
    fig, ax = plt.subplots()
    ax.scatter(x + 2010, y, label="Data", color="b", linestyle=":")
    ax.plot(x + 2010, fit_func(x, *popt), color="r", linewidth=3.0, linestyle="-", label='best fit curve: $y={0:.3f} * 2^{{{1:.3f}x}} + {2:.3f}$'.format(*popt))
    plt.legend()
    plt.show()
    

    Here's what I get, global solar energy generated doubles every ~3.5 (1/0.284) years.

  • 77% of Top Climate Scientists Think 2.5°C of Warming Is Coming—And They're Horrified
  • Exponential, it fits the curve very nicely. I can give you the python code if you want to. I got 2 decades for all energy usage, not only electricity, which is only one sixth of that.

    I just took the numbers for the whole world, that's easier to find and in the end the only thing that matters.

    The next few years are going to be interesting in my opinion. If we can make efuels cheaper than fossil fuels (look up Prometheus Fuels and Terraform Industries), we're going to jump even harder on solar and if production can keep up it will even grow faster.

  • Chinese woman jailed for reporting on Covid in Wuhan to be freed after four years
  • The mistake you make is that you assume the law works the same in China as in countries that have rule of law. China doesn't have rule of law, they have 'rule by law'. The Communist Party isn't just above the law, the law is a tool for them to use how they see fit. If you are undermining the Communist Party then that is by definition misinformation.

    Remember, this is the same country where one day the minister of health aplauded a journalist's effort to combat pollution with a documentary called under the dome, and the next day it was gone from the internet as if it never existed. Whenever they have internal issues they stir up some hatred for the USA or Japan, only to be forgotten somewhat later.

    They took 1984 not as a warning, but as a manual

  • 77% of Top Climate Scientists Think 2.5°C of Warming Is Coming—And They're Horrified
  • Then look at the total TWh from renewables, and rate it has been growing Y-o-Y and extrapolate until it reaches the number needed to eliminate fossil fuels.

    You’ll find it will take decades to build enough renewable capacity to replace fossil fuel based electricity generation.

    I get ~2 decades when I extrapolate these numbers (from 2010-2023) to get to 2022 total primary energy usage for solar alone.

    Energy usage will grow as well, and keeping that growth is ambitious, but it the future doesn't look that bleak too me if you look at it that way.

  • World’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target
  • I'm getting a bit more optimistic when I read about companies like Terraform Industries and Prometheus Fuels. If they really can make efuels cheaper than fossil fuels, things can change really fast for the better.

  • PSA: Nova Launcher is owned by an analytics company
  • Be aware that using open source doesn't protect you completely from this, look at what happened to Simple Mobile tools, best install your open source applications from f-droid.

    Do you have any good open source alternatives for Nova Launcher?

  • Serial Killers Have Rapidly Declined Since The 1980s
  • Seems to have been debunked: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/03/21/why-freakonomics-failed-to-transform-economics

    Later researchers found a coding error and pointed out that Mr Levitt had used the total number of arrests, which depends on the size of a population, and not the arrest rate, which does not. Others pointed out that the fall in homicide started among women. No-fault divorce, rather than legalised abortion, may have played a bigger role.

  • Oregon man spiked smoothies for daughter's 12-year-old friends with sedatives, affidavit says
  • That sounds much more reasonable, but don't forget these numbers are also skewed by sexism, on many levels. Victims might not even realize they are victims. In many jurisdictions a woman having nonconsensual sex with a man isn't even considered rape.

    Now, I don't believe the numbers are even close to 50/50 or that women don't have the right thing being wary. But being wary is one thing, simply banning all sleepovers at the house of single male parents is another. I'd still call that sexist.

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    ammonium @lemmy.world
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