Bulletins and News Discussion from August 12th to August 18th, 2024 - Marshall Plan: Now As Farce - COTW: Ireland
Bulletins and News Discussion from August 12th to August 18th, 2024 - Marshall Plan: Now As Farce - COTW: Ireland
Image is of one of Ireland's only manned navy ships, the Samuel Beckett. Image sourced from this BBC article.
Putler has been HUMILIATED by the Kursk offensive and this proves that Russia's army is in tatters and unable even to defend its own territory. However, it is simultaneously true that Russia poses an existential threat to countries thousands of miles away, as this recent Politico article demonstrates. Ireland - a country that immediately springs to mind as one surrounded by enemies - is being bullied due to its lack of military.
Despite bearing responsibility for 16 percent of the EU’s territorial waters, and the fact that 75 percent of transatlantic undersea cables pass through or near Irish waters, Ireland is totally defenseless. And I mean completely unable to protect critical infrastructure, or even pretend to secure its own borders. [...] Ireland’s “navy” of six patrol vessels is currently operating with one operational ship due to chronic staff shortages. [...] Ireland simply has no undersea capabilities. How could it, when it barely spends 0.2 percent of GDP on security and defense? And it has, in effect, abdicated responsibility for protecting the Europe’s northwestern borders.
For all we know, the dreaded sea-people from the Bronze Age Collapse could soon emerge from the North Atlantic.
Unfortunately, things are even worse up in the skies. Ireland has no combat jets, and it’s the only country in Europe that can’t monitor its own airspace due to the lack of primary radar systems. Instead, the country has outsourced its security to Britain in a technically secret agreement between Dublin and London, which effectively cedes control over Irish air space to the Royal Air Force. This must be the luck of the Irish — smile and get someone else to protect you for free.
While this is very silly, rearmament has long been a part of US imperial strategy on an economic level. Desai, discussing the US imperial strategy in the WW2 period:
By 1947 [...] the domestic postwar consumer boom was nearing its end. While financing exports became more urgent, the 1946 elections returned a Congress unlikely to approve further loans. Now the Truman Administration concocted the ‘red menace’ to ‘scare the hell out of the country’, enunciated the Truman Doctrine of US support for armed resistance to ‘subjugation’ which launched the cold war, and Congress granted $400 million to prevent left-wing triumphs in Greece and Turkey in 1947.
One reading of history states that the US was so intimidated by the USSR that this forced a policy of massive arms production even outside of official wartime. Why this arms production is not occurring today can be puzzling, and (very reasonably) explained by neoliberals exporting industrial production overseas. However, a different historical reading can explain both the first Cold War, and the ongoing situation in which American weaponry is being almost purposefully given in insufficient numbers to give Ukraine a chance of victory and thus only prolonging their suffering (while generating massive profit for the military-industrial complex):
In this sense the Cold War was not the cause of US imperial policy but its effect. It combined financing exports with fighting combined development by national capitalisms as well as communism. When such ‘totalitarian regimes’ threatened ‘free peoples’, ‘America’s world economic responsibilities’ included aid to countries battling them.
By selling massively expensive weapons to Europe, America could simultaneously guarantee export markets for its industries, trap Europe into reliance on American industries at the expense of their own, and divert European funds away from constructing factories which could compete with American ones. Providing a way to defend against Soviet communism (and now Russian "imperialism") is merely a happy side-effect, and so the lack of effectiveness of American weaponry is causing no great panic among the military-industrial complex, nor an urgent plan to quintuple artillery shell production or Patriot missile production - the deals for F-35s and such are still there, and they are what matter.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Ireland! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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I wonder what Fitch is actually basing their Israel debt downgrade on (besides arbitrary ratios).
Maybe they think Shekel would depreciate but in that case they could go ask their sugar daddy for Dollars. So long as Israeli state exists, Israeli shekels will too, sadly.
Maybe Fitch does think Hezbollah and Iran will destroy the Zionist entity.
Or the Israeli state implodes from internal conflict.
Or they think US will cut them off and force them to default on their foreign currency debt (lol) like they did with Russia and Iran.
Y'all can just read the downgrade releases. They tell you exactly why they are downgrading/changing outlook.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Continued War Drives Downgrade: The downgrade to 'A' reflects the impact of the continuation of the war in Gaza, heightened geopolitical risks and military operations on multiple fronts. Public finances have been hit and we project a budget deficit of 7.8% of GDP in 2024 and debt to remain above to 70% of GDP in the medium term. In addition, World Bank Governance Indicators are likely to deteriorate, weighing on Israel's credit profile.
Geopolitical Risks Underpin Negative Outlook: In our view, the conflict in Gaza could last well into 2025 and there are risks of it broadening to other fronts. In addition to human losses, it could result in significant additional military spending, destruction of infrastructure and more sustained damage to economic activity and investment, leading to a further deterioration of Israel's credit metrics.
Regional Tensions: Tensions between Israel and Iran and its allies remain high. Hezbollah is believed to have been behind a rocket attack killing 12 civilians in the Golan Heights on 27 July and Israel killed a Hezbollah commander on 30 July in Beirut, is believed to have been involved in the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Iran on 31 July and attacked a Houthi-controlled port in Yemen following a drone attack on Israel. These attacks highlight the high level of tensions in the region and the risk of escalation that could further damage Israel's credit profile.
Israel continues its operations in Gaza, having entered the City of Rafah and taken control of the border with Egypt. The war will likely continue until end-2024 with a risk of intense operations continuing beyond. This implies continued high spending on immediate military needs, and disruptions to production in the border areas and in tourism and construction. Israel has demobilised most of its reservists, reducing the impact on the workforce.
Wide Budget Deficits: We project Israel's central government budget deficit to reach 7.8% of GDP in 2024 after 4.1% in 2023. This reflects large outlays related to military operations, the mitigation of economic damage and relocation expenses for those in the north of the country. Revenue collection rebounded in 1H24 to a level above the amended budget and we expect it to remain strong during the rest of the year.
We project a budget deficit of 4.6% of GDP in 2025 on lower military spending and revenue growth, although it could be wider if the war continues in 2025. Moreover, we expect the government will permanently increase military spending by close to 1.5% of GDP versus pre-war levels. Israel is likely to maintain a stronger presence along its borders than in the past,plans to widen mandatory draft and to increase domestic military production, which would also add to spending.
Challenges to Fiscal Reforms: Our forecasts include some new fiscal consolidation measures. A 1% rise in the VAT rate (raising about 0.8% of GDP) starting in 2025 was in the 2024 budget and other measures are being discussed to cut spending and increase revenues. However, political fractiousness, coalition politics and military imperatives could hinder consolidation plans and present a risk to our forecast.
Debt to Rise: Fitch projects debt-to-GDP to rise to 70% in 2024 and 72% in 2025, above the 71% peak during the pandemic in 2020. However, in the event of higher permanent military spending and uncertain macroeconomic trends debt would remain on an upward trend beyond 2025. Israel's debt is higher than the forecast 'A' peer median of 55% for 2025. Funding conditions have been solid during 2024 with USD8 billion issued on public markets, additional funding from private placements and robust demand for domestic debt.
Domestic Politics Remains Fractious: An emergency government was formed to include parties beyond the original coalition and to form a war cabinet including National Unity party leader Benny Gantz. The emergency government was dissolved in June 2024 and the original coalition returned to power. It could remain until the next elections in October 2026, although coalitions rarely last a full term and this one will face pressure for early elections, given the events of October 2023 and controversy over the conscription of ultra-orthodox Jews.
External Metrics Remain Strong: Israel's external balance sheet remains stronger than peers' despite the shocks, with a net external creditor position of 64.2% of GDP at end-2023 (from 51.6% in 2022) compared with 5.1% for the peer median. The Bank of Israel's foreign exchange reserves increased to USD213.4 billion in July 2024, from USD204.7 billion at end-2023. We forecast current account surpluses at 4.3% of GDP in 2024 and 3.9% in 2025, versus 4.8% in 2023.
ESG - Governance: Israel has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '5' for Political Stability and Rights, '5' for International Relations and Trade and '5[+]' for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. These scores reflect the high weight that the WBGI have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model (SRM). Israel has a high WBGI ranking at the 69th percentile, reflecting its long record of peaceful political transitions, strong institutional capacity, effective rule of law, low level of corruption but unstable governments and a hostile external and security environment.
Yep arbitrary ratios as always
I wouldn't really call any of this arbitrary except for probably the ESG stuff. Fitch is saying that Israel is being downgraded because they have had to run budget deficits in order to finance the war, which means they have less cash to pay back their debtholders. Change to a negative outlook is primarily due to the risk of a war in Gaza that continues past 2024, meaning they have to continue running a budget deficit, and the risk of an expanded regional war. A larger regional war would destroy a lot of economic assets that Israel needs to repay existing debt, and would likely have to issue new debt in order to repair/replace the stuff that gets destroyed. Fitch is skeptical that they would be able to deal with this issue because their government is such a mess.
maybe based on decreasing tax revenues due to israeli's fleeing the country? yes i know fiat is infinite
on electronic intifada they reported that their startup/tech community is destroyedFiat is infinite when debts can theoretically be repaid (i.e. you have control over the currency), because it is literally based on confidence (because money as a whole is a kind of confidence scheme to siphon labor value into exchange value). More bluntly, in a capitalist system, fiat is infinite if no one can make you pay your debts.
While I wouldn't exactly call this 'kosher MMT', Israel cannot issue infinite money because there is no confidence by exchange banks that can produce even a fraction of the labor power (or in many cases, military power) to back it up. The U.S. on the other hand, can issue infinite money to Israel, because it is used to buy weapons (and other mercenary services) that are made by our own industries. We are essentially making money to pay ourselves for our own labor value (which is used on bombs because hey, even the best made bomb can only be used onve).
Depending on the banks and credit rating systems some are well invested into the arms manufacturing sector, but others have different operations and motives, so perhaps Fitch has operating calculus that doesn't think the U.S. will prop up Israeli debt to third parties (a.k.a. bailout) (which is theoretically possible), while all other debt algorithms are assuming Isreali debt will be propped up by the U.S., whose dollars are increasingly valuable since interest rates went up, this making Israeli debt valuable, regardless of external cirxumstance.
Basically, the issue is was the value of Israeli debt always based almost solely on U.S. power and interest in the reguon, or did Israel actually have access the labor and military power to convince creditors that it was above their ability to pursue debts?
I don't think foreign investors care that much about Israel's economy. They see if they can get more (of their own currency) out than they put in.
So as long as the bank of Israel exists, can issue Shekels (doesn't matter how dysfunctional Israel is) and the foreigners can sell the shekels at same or better exchange rate they bought it for they'll be happy.
I think the exchange rate is the biggy. If Israel has no production (and export) capacity, their exchange rate wouldn't be worth a lot except if some other country (US) says it's willing to provide 1 dollar for every 4 shekels or "invest" in Israel. 51st state and all.
The US could provide Bank of Israel with all the dollars they need to maintain the exchange rate at which foreigners would be happy.
This is why I didn't believe the "Shekel is going collapse" shit after Oct 7. Not the same for Lebanon, sadly.
I know what you're saying, and mostly agree, but fiat being "based on confidence" sounds like the crypto bro ancap argument. the only "confidence" fiat is based on is the confidence that the issuing government will put you in jail if you don't have enough of it.
I know you are being glib, but that is incorrect. You, as an individual, are not a large enough stakeholder in the system to even matter. Your debts do not really matter, whether or not you are in jail does not matter. All that matters is can the issuing agency back up the creditors issuing the debts, or is the issuer too large to be effectively challenged by creditors. The rest is just micro-economic rigamarole. (Which is why it is generally ignored btw. States are usually left to their own devices on that kind of stuff, outside of prosecuting national political opponents through drugs. For profit-prison stuff is mostly a bonus, because then the state doesn't even have to jail you itself.)
Economists were talking about the issues with fiat long before crypto-grifters who don't even have enough knowledge to understand what they're selling came about. The problem is that crypto doesn't, and could never, actually circumnavigate a centralised banking system. For the first case that it is literally derivative from the subsidies, grants and loans of government central banks to create the material to create crypto (electricity, construction, chips, processors, etc.) all of which it needs since it is incredibly ineffienct at translating into labor value. Secondly, Bitcoin has a (I believe a couple?) index splits where a 'central authority' had to step in and 'correct the index' from fraud. Bitcoin is absolutely as fraudulent as the next currency, it's just even worse because it is even less efficient at generating labor power for value.
Fiat currency sucks like that. It really sucks to be the first one in because it is usually completely worthless (see American Revolutionary War soldiers) but every now and again (and basically completely out of your control) your completely worthless thing is suddenly more valuable than the material it was made from, usually due to the whims of people whose money and power are older than even capitalism, which leads to alot of survivorship bias.
I thought currency has value in large part from state collecting tax in that currency. is what you're saying distinct from MMT? if you can point to some sources on the topic I'd appreciate it.
particularly this part if you can explain further:
All that matters is can the issuing agency back up the creditors issuing the debts, or is the issuer too large to be effectively challenged by creditors.
what does "back up the creditors" mean?
You have to read some more modern Marxists like Wolff. I can't remember the specific work that talks about it. Hudson talks more specifically about the financial imperialism that supports the U.S. dollar, but this thing crops up in Marx and Lenin as well. None of this is really kosher MMT though.
It means they can bail out specific creditors without 'creating a moral hazard' large enough for the majority of agencies to degrade them. Outliers are never good, but only one credit agency is fine. Does this work to actually prevent moral hazards in practice? No,.not really.
What I am saying is not quite distinct from MMT, more of an addendum. Taxation of currency is important in MMT because it means you have control over your supply of money. But control of your money supply depends in large part having control of instruments of international finance, which most countries do not. The U.S. gets away with breaking those 'rules' it because we made most of those instruments of international finance in the post WWII era.
Basically, we can stimulate our own industries (to the degree we have labor willing to do it) through issuing currency, but everyone else gets their nuts to the grill from international financial bodies if they try to replicate what is done in the U.S. financially.
Edit: Honestly I feel like I'm explaining this like shit. If I had some real primary sources on me, I'd give them to you, but I don't carry around citations in my back pocket like a good Marxist should.
yeah it's no worries, it's enough to say I need to study more modern Marxists.
While I wouldn't exactly call this 'kosher MMT'
I mean, MMT does not, and should not, have anything to say about foreign agreements and interference, in the same way that it doesn't have anything to say about what the division of profit is, because those things are not related to how money works. We're used to neoliberalism being this all encompassing theory of the will of the market, but if you don't have to peddle to the debt market, you can leave it all to the disciplines who actually deal with how things work.
Fair enough. It's just that a lot of online MMT people are like 'Why not print infinite money?' as if that actually will just solve supply and labor crisis. It's like doing aerodynamics without accounting for air pressure.
MMT people, or people who like the necessary soundbites? I'm nowhere near being an economist, but the less known creator Bill Mitchell is clear on his semi daily blog about what is MMT, and what are his political beliefs informed by the appropriate disciplines. He has also been critical of the fanbase overstepping, with vague allusions that I understood as criticism of the popular American new generation graduates.
I feel you, it is the libs trying to pave over the cracks, but it is not the tool's fault.
I'm talking about the sound bites people or people who flog it in forums, not the like, actual MMT bloggers.
Israel's debt is higher than the forecast 'A' peer median of 55% for 2025
Their forecast debt rate for Israel in 2025 is 72% according to Fitch's report. So they might be higher rated than they ought to be despite the downgrade.
They lowered it again?
Edit: well I'll be.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he expected the rating would be upgraded again once Israel wins the war.
Lol.
"Israel's economy is strong and is functioning very well. The rating downgrade is a result of Israel dealing with a multi-front war forced upon it," Netanyahu said in a statement.
Lmao.