“Red Wave” Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages in Trump’s Favor?
“Red Wave” Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages in Trump’s Favor?
Polling by right-leaning firms has exploded this cycle. Maybe they want to be accurate—or maybe they’re trying to create a sense of momentum for Donald Trump.
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Who knows, seems likely to me, but in any case the early vote numbers /breakdowns stress me out. If Trump wins the election, I'm going to have to just get off social media, I've already had to delete YouTube, for my mental health and just live without thinking about how bad the world is getting around me.
Edit: Do not be discouraged by my doom and gloom, I'm Canadian, I can't vote, you can so go do it. Do it now if you can.
Absolutely do not believe the polls because every single time people show up in huge numbers to vote, Republicans lose!
Just vote, everyone. Don’t avoid it because you think it won’t matter. It will! Republicans want you to think they’ve already won. Prove them wrong!
It all went down in mid-September, at a time when the FiveThirtyEight polling averages showed the slightest of leads for Kamala Harris in North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump. Her edge was short-lived: The averages moved back to favoring Trump. And Quantus Insights, a GOP-friendly polling firm, took credit for this development. When a MAGA influencer celebrated the pro-Trump shift on X (formerly Twitter), Quantus’s account responded: “You’re welcome.”
Most prominently, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg and data analyst Tom Bonier, who were skeptical of such predictions in 2022 and ultimately proved correct, are now warning that all this is happening again.
The Republicans got their asses handed to them in 2022, and (unfortunately) people don’t normally show up in big numbers for a midterm election. This is a presidential election, so you can expect it will be an even bigger turnout.
Don’t get discouraged. All you have to do is vote. If Trump doesn’t get elected, he can’t weasel out of his legal problems, which is his only way out of them.
Thank you. I'm getting very tired of the sudden influx of doom and gloom when the actual data points to a likely Harris win and bullshit from Republican pollsters.
Harris is running on a message of looking forward to the future and on a message of hope. All research shows that actually motivates people better than fear, which is all the republicans have.
Harris is a likable person without the baggage that Hillary carried in 2016, and she’s not an entitled white woman. All the major news outlets are owned by billionaires whose sociopathic pursuit of hoarding wealth is best served by the republicans, so of course all of them are going to spin everything to discourage democrats from voting.
We have an awful, awful lot of damage to address in the USA, but we can’t even begin to fix a broken system with republicans in power. I have plenty of my own criticisms for the democrats, but unfortunately this is the situation. They must win this election. We will have to reform the party in the coming years if we want to see any actual change. That starts with making sure republicans lose by voting. I’ll be going after work to vote early tomorrow.
I'm sorry, I'm just prone to worst case thinking.
Hey, I hear you. And given the threat Trump poses, it's important to stay vigilant.
But I genuinely believe we've got this. Trump will never be in the White House again.
And early voting data actually looks terrific for Harris. Early turnout in Democratic-leaning areas all over the country is unprecedented.
I actually forgot all about that red wave play until you brought it back up it honestly helps a bit.
Yep, they're trying it again. Flood the zone with shitty polls from fly-by-night pollsters, make it look like a "red wave," and try to turn it into a self-fulfilling prophecy. If it works, they look like geniuses. If it fails, they claim rigging.
If Trump doesn’t get elected, he can’t weasel out of his legal problems, which is his only way out of them.
In normal times you're absolutely correct. However, this isn't a traditional election. I think it's pretty clear that they're not planning on letting something like losing the election stop them from gaining power. November 5th is not the end of the war it's the start of the next battle.
You are right that voting is the best thing people can do to help us win between now and then though. We just need to be prepared to do more. Every American needs to consider the question "how much am I willing to risk to maintain democracy?" because it is more likely now than at any point in our lives that more will be required of us.
I'm not worried about that. They'll have an even harder time rigging things in 2024 than in 2020. First, their prior strategy was completely cut off thanks to new federal legislation. Second, don't underestimate the effect of Biden currently sitting in the White House. Most of the stuff Trump tried to pull in 2020 was only possible because he was sitting in the Oval Office. For example, the capital building was largely unguarded precisely because Trump refused requests for troops and additional security. This time, the capital building will be a fortress surrounded by thousands of soldiers armed to the teeth. If any MAGA asshats try to storm the capital again this time, they won't have to worry about prosecution. They will simply not be leaving there alive.
People like to doom post about the Supreme Court, but in all practical reality, there is only so much they can do. Yes, if there is actually a legitimate question in an extremely close election, they can put their thumb on the scale and put their guy in power. That's what happened in 2000. In 2000, things were razor-close, and there were some legitimate open questions about how to count ballots, questions of such triviality that no one had bothered litigating them before. And because Florida was within a few hundred votes, and because the Electoral College was basically tied, that distinction mattered.
But that really is the limit of how far the Supreme Court can go in putting their thumb on the scale. People like to Doompost and handwring about how, "omg, SCOTUS is just going to rule that Trump wins, even if he loses in a landslide." I call bullshit on that. There is a word for that kind of comically farcical ruling - a coup by another name. If the court issues a ruling that just says, "lol, fuck democracy, our guy wins"...well we've abandoned all pretense at that point. And at that point, Biden can simply get up there and say, "the justices have completely abandoned democracy and have attempted to stage a coup from the bench. They are engaged in treason against the United States, and I have had them arrested, and they will be tried by military tribunal for their crimes against the Republic."
I'm sorry, but people do not fuck around when it comes to presidential elections. A coup from the bench is as treasonous an act as storming the capital. Again, they do have some wiggle room. If the election is essentially a tossup, down to a few hundred votes in a single state? Sure, then they can choose a winner. But if it would require a comically biased, utterly farcical ruling? Well at that point what matters is who is currently holding the guns. And that will be the military led by Joe Biden. If they attempt a coup from the bench, they can be charged with treason, hauled in front of a military tribunal, and be dealt with quite quickly.
They realize that this is actually a possibility if they were to attempt a judicial coup. And they would much prefer their current cushy jobs to playing with that kind of fire. Again, if it's close, they can put their thumb on the scale. But as a practical reality, SCOTUS can't just completely overturn the results on an unambiguous election without gambling with their very lives. Nations do not fuck around when it comes to this kind of question of transfer of power.
I think what you're saying is a reasonable take. I'm just not sure that's how unreasonable people see the situation and that's what we're dealing with. So much of this is uncharted territory that I don't think we can rely on how things should play out.
Absolutely, but for now the best thing we can do is show up and vote and call out these misleading polls for what they are. The larger the margins are, the harder it gets to try to cheat through the courts. Of course if there is a big blue wave, we'll hear that it itself is evidence that voter fraud happened, in which they will justify with these slanted polls.
I think the other silver lining is that when it comes down too it, Trump doesn't have a large enough base that is willing to stick thier own necks out in a misguided attempt to "save" democracy. Trump.didn't get the numbers he wanted on January 6th and he won't get them this time either.
I'm an American and I live in Canada and can vote (already did)
All of this stresses me out too. I feel like I'm like,"Kilroy was here" and peering over the wall, just watching
What will hurt is having to stay off Lemmy because I won't be unable to resist the temptation to look