“Red Wave” Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages in Trump’s Favor?

Obviously...

But any polling aggregator that blindly treats every poll the same isn't worth listening to.

I mean, we literally know that Musk's door knockers are just spoofing gps so they don't have to go door to door, and are filling out the surveys as saying everyone already voted early for trump.

Who knows, seems likely to me, but in any case the early vote numbers /breakdowns stress me out. If Trump wins the election, I'm going to have to just get off social media, I've already had to delete YouTube, for my mental health and just live without thinking about how bad the world is getting around me.

Edit: Do not be discouraged by my doom and gloom, I'm Canadian, I can't vote, you can so go do it. Do it now if you can.

The conservative community on lemmy.ee currently has a post about there being a 66% chance Trump wins. They're chugging the Kool aid over there.

I've been wondering this for a while, wouldn't you want your candidate to poll poorly so more people who otherwise wouldn't vote and also prefer your candidate go out and vote? Wouldn't higher polling numbers cause people to rest assured their candidate will win and then not worry about voting? Obviously polls mean nothing, go out and vote

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This has already been debunked, but almost all models and polling have Trump as the favorite, and this was an obvious outcome of trends that were apparent in early September. Trump, right now, is winning this election and has been for a solid five weeks and a squishy 6 weeks. You can not like it, and you shouldn't, but pretending that Harris is winning when she isn't doesn't change the fact that she went from trending to winning the majority of swing states, to trending to losing the swing states, too just plain losing them over the course of two months. Not everyone has the liberty to stick their heads in the sand when it comes to bad news, least of all, a blitz political campaign when there is this much on the line.

It's just what it is. It seems like a direct consequence of the shift towards focusing on Republican voters and courting neoconservatives: because that largely has been the focus of the campaign. It's also not clear to me that there is time to even pivot. As fast as the news moves, it really does take almost two weeks for changes in a race to make there way into polling. Frankly, the convention and post convention campaign have been a disaster. There is no good reason to be polling this badly against someone as deeply unpopular and genuinely dangerous to democracy as Donald Trump. But Harris quite literally has pivoted away from the Democratic base to court "Moderate Republicans", with this insane idea that some how she'll move enough people away from Trump to win this. With ever "moderate Republican" (as if that's even a thing) she gains, she loses two anti war Democrats.

You can't have bipartisanship with a party that doesn't consider humans human, and it's central to the DNCs continuing insistence on being a right wing party, when their voters are significantly further to the left of those determining party policy. Bipartisanship with an anti-abortion party is unacceptable. Bipartisanship with a pro genocide party is unacceptable (or being one, for that matter. Bipartisanship with fascism is unacceptable. Democrats needed to have "done better" in this election cycle in the sense that they needed to take wide open the moral high round on so many issues like abortion, race and gender, freedom of speech, economic well being, health care, and genocide, and they simply chose not to.

It will be a literal miracle if Kamala actually wins enough swing states with the numbers obviously favoring Trump ( it's not fake news, we've been over this, it's just that Kamala abandoned the base to court Republicans). It will be two miracles if the campaign can also then navigate the post election court cases, since so much has been left on the table by the campaign, we can expect any wins to be extremely close.

The only other option I see is to take the advice of Vance and not certify.

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