Zelenskyy straight-up said Ukraine is going to lose if Congress doesn't send more aid
Zelenskyy straight-up said Ukraine is going to lose if Congress doesn't send more aid
In his starkest warning yet, President Zelenskyy said that "Ukraine will lose the war" to Russia if Congress does not act to send it more aid.
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Its the opinion of everyone that has any level of information of the situation and is honest.
Really depends on what you mean by loose, and what constitutes a win for Russia.
Russia's original objective was to waltz to Kyiv and kick down a rotten door, expecting the house to follow. Well that didn't work out, so what's the new objective?
Is a win occupying all of Ukraine, just the peninsula, or just realizing the new territory in donbos? If you are talking about the peninsula or the breakaway territory, yea they could probably get away with that pretty easily, but that's pretty much where we started. But, I would hesitate calling it a win to waste generations worth of military equipment and men to maintain the status quo.
If you are talking about permanently occupying the entirety of the country...... I'm not really sure if that's even an obtainable goal? They are still fighting for every kilometer in eastern Ukraine, and defences will only get tougher as you head west. Plus, they won't want to utilize the type of bombardments they use to avoid urban combat in the larger eastern cities. At least not if they are the ones who are expecting to pay the bills when this is all over.
This whole venture is only profitable if they actually get to fully integrate Ukrainians into the Russian federation, and with how bloody this war has been, that means a significant occupation force, likely over half a million soldiers.
Win in my opinion would be have the ability to control all of Ukraine eventually, or force Ukaine to capitulate. Maybe they would not be able to occupy because that was never their goal, it was to stop Ukraine from joining nato.
Win in my opinion would be have the ability to control all of Ukraine eventually, or force Ukaine to capitulate.
I wouldn't say they're doing so well on the hearts and minds front....
As far as capitulation, that's what we're talking about here. What could they possibly capitulate too that would be considered a win at this point? Just about the only thing that would come close is the entirety of Ukraine, and maybe a chunk of Moldavia? That's going to be an occupation, and everyone knows how well those go these days.
was to stop Ukraine from joining nato.
Okay, well mission accomplished. You stopped a neighboring nation from potentially joining, and scarred two other neighbors into the express lane.
Plus, I don't think that's really an academically honest opinion. It would be like saying America invaded Iraq because they had weapons of mass destruction.
A lot of Ukrainians were not really excited about NATO prosperity until Russia started pulling the same shenanigans they did in Georgia and Moldavia. It's not exactly a new tactic in Russia's foreign policy.
I wouldn’t say they’re doing so well on the hearts and minds front…
In Russia and Eastern Ukraine they did...
Plus, I don’t think that’s really an academically honest opinion. It would be like saying America invaded Iraq because they had weapons of mass destruction.
The US facilitated the coup in 2014 (at least there's a smoking gun), Russia tried to join NATO 3 times and got denied, domestically Navalny got propped up by the west. The writing was on the wall..unlike Iraq
A lot of Ukrainians were not really excited about NATO prosperity until Russia started pulling the same shenanigans they did in Georgia and Moldavia. It’s not exactly a new tactic in Russia’s foreign policy.
You're reversing cause and effect. First there was the prospect of joining NATO for Ukraine and Georgia then the war in Georgia happened as a response/protest from russia.
Also you're admitting that the a lot of Ukrainian were not excited about joining NATO, why push for it anyway.. not really democratic. Sounds what a puppet government would do
Russia and Eastern Ukraine they did...
Ahh yes, murdering the opposition into compliance, definitely winning the hearts and minds there. It's not like tens of thousands of Russian men of service age fled the draft or anything.
As far as eastern Ukraine..... "Girkin was one of the commanders in Russia's annexation of Crimea, which immediately followed the revolution. In an interview on 22 January 2015, he explained that Russian media falsely portrayed Crimeans as supporting the annexation; Girkin said a majority of the local administration, law enforcement and army were opposed to it.[45][46] Girkin stated that under his command, the rebels "collected" deputies into the chambers, and had to "forcibly drive the deputies to vote [to join Russia]".
Sounds real democratic....
The US facilitated the coup in 2014 (at least there's a smoking gun)
And Russia was facilitating the ruling Ukrainian oligarchy, the only real difference was that America didn't put boots on the ground when they got politically outmaneuvered.
Russia tried to join NATO 3 times and got denied
They didn't try to join NATO three times. In the early 00's and as a response to the war on terrorism Russia began running joint exercises, establishing the NATO Russian joint council.
domestically Navalny got propped up by the west.
How so?
You're reversing cause and effect. First there was the prospect of joining NATO for Ukraine and Georgia then the war in Georgia happened as a response/protest from russia.
You're talking about 08' Bucharest Summit? The Russian federation was still in a join council with NATO at the time, and neither Ukraine nor Georgia were a priority to him, they were mainly focusing on Kosovo.
Actual public support for joining NATO only started after 2014, after the events in Georgian, and as a response to the Russian backed separation movement.
Ukrainian were not excited about joining NATO, why push for it anyway.. not really democratic. Sounds what a puppet government would do
You're asking why they wanted to join NATO for protection when they already have Russians occupying parts of their eastern territory?
The vast majority of Ukrainians did not want to join in 08' nor would it have been possible with their current government. Even after their 2014 election, and actual public interest increased, they still had to make major changes to their judiciary system before they would even be considered.
Finally, even if we accept the rhetoric from Russia that NATO was the reason they facilitated the succession in eastern Ukraine, that doesn't explain why they invaded the rest of the country. It isn't possible for a country to join NATO while they are engaged in territorial disputes. So why destroy your neighbors when the goal is already accomplished?
This all started because in 04 Ukraine was tired of being a defacto vassal state to Russia. The country that had been propping up oligarchic leaderships with deep ties to Russian capital since the fall of the Soviet Republic. Once Putin couldn't hold down the eastern blok with soft power alone, he used the only tools left to him, subversive hard power.
I just don't really understand why you give the state the benefit of doubt, considering their historic relations with their neighbors in the caucuses and eastern Europe.
Ahh yes, murdering the opposition into compliance, definitely winning the hearts and minds there.
Putin is undeniably popular in Russia, having reversed neoliberal policies and bringing political stability after yeltsins shock therapy. Crimea: That's a lot of people no? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgMZBjgCFHo
they got politically outmaneuvered.
Ukraine seems to be a pawn in your worldview. Ok.
They [Russia] didn’t try to join NATO three times.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule That's at least one, not gonna do you the effort to find you the other ones
How so?
You missed how Navalny was propped up by the West??
You’re asking why they wanted to join NATO for protection when they already have Russians occupying parts of their eastern territory?
You’re talking about 08’ Bucharest Summit? The Russian federation was still in a join council with NATO at the time, and neither Ukraine nor Georgia were a priority to him
NATO–Russia relations stalled and subsequently started to deteriorate, following the Ukrainian Orange Revolution in 2004–2005 and the Russo-Georgian War in 2008. 2004–2007
In the years 2004–2006, Russia undertook several hostile trade actions directed against Ukraine and the Western countries (see #Trade and economy below). Several highly publicised murders of Putin's opponents also occurred in Russia in that period, marking his increasingly authoritarian rule and the tightening of his grip on the media (see #Ideology and propaganda below).
In 2006, Russian intelligence performed an assassination on the territory of a NATO member state.[citation needed] On 1 November 2006, Alexander Litvinenko, a British-naturalised Russian defector and former officer of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) who specialised in tackling organized crime and advised British intelligence and coined the term "mafia state", suddenly fell ill and was hospitalised after poisoning with polonium-210; he died from the poisoning on 23 November.[55] The events leading up to this are well documented, despite spawning numerous theories relating to his poisoning and death. A British murder investigation identified Andrey Lugovoy, a former member of Russia's Federal Protective Service (FSO), as the main suspect. Dmitry Kovtun was later named as a second suspect.[56] The United Kingdom demanded that Lugovoy be extradited, however Russia denied the extradition as the Russian constitution prohibits the extradition of Russian citizens, leading to a straining of relations between Russia and the United Kingdom.[57]
Subsequently, Russia suspended in 2007 its participation in the 1990 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. 2008 Meeting of the NATO–Russia council in Bucharest, Romania on 4 April 2008
In 2008, Russia condemned the unilateral declaration of independence of Kosovo,[58] stating they "expect the UN mission and NATO-led forces in Kosovo to take immediate action to carry out their mandate ... including the annulling of the decisions of Pristina's self-governing organs and the taking of tough administrative measures against them."[59] Russian President Vladimir Putin described the recognition of Kosovo's independence by several major world powers as "a terrible precedent, which will de facto blow apart the whole system of international relations, developed not over decades, but over centuries", and that "they have not thought through the results of what they are doing. At the end of the day it is a two-ended stick and the second end will come back and hit them in the face".[60] Europe was not unanimous in this matter, and a number of European countries have refused to recognise the sovereignty of Kosovo, while a number of further European nations did so only to appease the United States.[citation needed]
Nevertheless, the heads of state for NATO Allies and Russia gave a positive assessment of NATO-Russia Council achievements in a Bucharest summit meeting in April 2008,[61] though both sides have expressed mild discontent with the lack of actual content resulting from the council.
In early 2008, U.S. President George W. Bush vowed full support for admitting Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, to the opposition of Russia.[62][63] The Russian Government claimed plans to expand NATO to Ukraine and Georgia may negatively affect European security. Likewise, Russians are mostly strongly opposed to any eastward expansion of NATO.[64][65] Russian President Dmitry Medvedev stated in 2008 that "no country would be happy about a military bloc to which it did not belong approaching its borders".[66] Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin warned that any incorporation of Ukraine into NATO would cause a "deep crisis" in Russia–Ukraine relations and also negatively affect Russia's relations with the West.[67]
Relations between NATO and Russia soured in summer 2008 due to Russia's war with Georgia. Later the North Atlantic Council condemned Russia for recognizing the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions of Georgia as independent states.[68] The Secretary General of NATO claimed that Russia's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia violated numerous UN Security Council resolutions, including resolutions endorsed by Russia. Russia, in turn, insisted the recognition was taken basing on the situation on the ground, and was in line with the UN Charter, the CSCE Helsinki Final Act of 1975 and other fundamental international law;[69] Russian media heavily stressed the precedent of the recent Kosovo declaration of independence.
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Putin is undeniably popular in Russia, having reversed neoliberal policies
Lol, reversed neoliberal policies by organizing the oligarchs in order of personal loyalty?
bringing political stability after yeltsins shock therapy.
Ahh yes, my country's stability is built upon a mountain of sanctions. Surely the benefits of adopting a wartime economy will never end, and never have any foreseeable consequences......
Ukraine seems to be a pawn in your worldview. Ok.
Lol, so when you claim that America led a coup you were implying ....?
least one, not gonna do you the effort to find you the other ones
Putin said: ‘When are you going to invite us to join Nato?’ And [Robertson] said: ‘Well, we don’t invite people to join Nato, they apply to join Nato.’ And he said: ‘Well, we’re not standing in line with a lot of countries that don’t matter.’”
Yeah, having a single off-handed remark does not qualify as trying to join NATO three times. They never applied. You haven't found one example, let alone three....
missed how Navalny was propped up by the West??
What do you mean by propped up? Are you implying that Russians are just a pawn to be played with?
NATO–Russia relations stalled and subsequently started to deteriorate, following the Ukrainian Orange Revolution in 2004–2005 and the Russo-Georgian War in 2008. 2004–2007
Yes, as I said. Putin started feeling his power slip in the eastern block, as a response to the orange revolution they implemented hostile trade deals.
2008, Russia condemned the unilateral declaration of independence of Kosovo,[58] stating they "expect the UN mission and NATO-led forces in Kosovo to take immediate action to carry out their mandate ... including the annulling of the decisions of Pristina's self-governing organs and the taking of tough administrative measures against them
Yes, Putin was the only hold out in Kosovo, he wanted a resolution that both Kosovo and Yugoslavia would agree to....which was a political impossibility. The serbs wanted to murder or displace any Albanian left in Yugoslavia, there's not really a middle ground available there.
Putting just wanted a pretext to spark more instability in former Soviet states.
the heads of state for NATO Allies and Russia gave a positive assessment of NATO-Russia Council achievements in a Bucharest summit meeting in April 2008,[61] though both sides have expressed mild discontent with the lack of actual content resulting from the council.
Not really helping your argument...... Isn't this the meeting you claimed eventually causes both conflicts in Ukraine and Georgia? Funny that it didn't seem to bother him much at the time?
In early 2008, U.S. President George W. Bush vowed full support for admitting Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, to the opposition of Russia.[
Yes....at the Bucharest summit NATO claimed they wanted Georgia and Ukraine in NATO, the same summit you just said went well
Relations between NATO and Russia soured in summer 2008 due to Russia's war with Georgia.
I thought you claimed the reason things soured was because the announcement at Bucharest? Now your claim is suggesting that things only soured after Russia backed a coup in Georgia....?
Russia's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia violated numerous UN Security Council resolutions, including resolutions endorsed by Russia. Russia, in turn, insisted the recognition was taken basing on the situation on the ground,
Lol, are you even reading what your quoting? None of this is helping your argument......
Lol, reversed neoliberal policies by organizing the oligarchs in order of personal loyalty?
Pretty much yes. The toppling of the USSR brought shock-Therapy and privatization with Yeltsin and brought a lot of unemployment and instability. Putin alleviated that, making him popular. Yeltsin and Clinton even handpicked the guy to make sure he doesn't bring back the USSR (Sidenote, ever wonder why they don't show life expectancy curves never go before the 90s in russia? No, It's not because the numbers were faked).
Ahh yes, my country’s stability is built upon a mountain of sanctions. Surely the benefits of adopting a wartime economy will never end, and never have any foreseeable consequences…
You libs never explain why Putin a US handpicked guy went from friend to foe. Could it be because Rosneft and Gazprom are SOEs and Putin doesn't want to sell these off to Western capitalists?
Yeah, having a single off-handed remark does not qualify as trying to join NATO three times. They never applied. You haven’t found one example, let alone three…
They wouldn't let him, because he wanted to be an equal imperial country
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2001/08/putin-is-right-russia-belongs-in-nato/377557/
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-putin-says-discussed-joining-nato-with-clinton/28526757.html
Lol, so when you claim that America led a coup you were implying …?
What do you mean by propped up? Are you implying that Russians are just a pawn to be played with?
I don't deny it, the US topples regimes as it pleases and uses them as pawns. Like they do with Ukraine right now, or how they facilitate a genocide in Gaza, or agitate Taiwan against Mainland China. It's always funny to me when its usually libs you can't admit it and then you write shit like that. I seem to have rattled you lol
Yes, as I said. Putin started feeling his power slip in the eastern block, as a response to the orange revolution they implemented hostile trade deals.
Ergo he, as someone who does realist politics, saw the writing on the wall as NATO was expanding toward him.
the heads of state for NATO Allies and Russia gave a positive assessment of NATO-Russia Council achievements in a Bucharest summit meeting in April 2008,[61] though both sides have expressed mild discontent with the lack of actual content resulting from the council
Yes…at the Bucharest summit NATO claimed they wanted Georgia and Ukraine in NATO, the same summit you just said went well
I thought you claimed the reason things soured was because the announcement at Bucharest? Now your claim is suggesting that things only soured after Russia backed a coup in Georgia…?
Russia had interest to join, but only if NATO internally reformed for members to be on equal footing (Which hasn't happened until today, USA is the leader still) and Russia got rejected.
I mean we're getting actually trapped in the minutia of the argument. The overall argument is that NATO is a reaction. First there was the creation of NATO (why if USSR and USA were allies in WW2?) and then came the Warsaw pact chronologically. The USSR, mind you, was an economic alliance. Even if we assume NATO saw the USSR as a threat (it actually was for it's capitalists) and was created as a result, why keep it, if not for imperialism after the dissolution of the USSR? US even handpicked Putin so it was all friendly back then, why increase members? For what threat? USSR is dissoloved and Putin was friendly at the time. If you had signs form Putin that expansion is seen as aggressive, why agitate? Saying now that the threat came true is a fucking joke.
the overall argument is that NATO is a reaction. First there was the creation of NATO (why if USSR and USA were allies in WW2?)
Because NATO was formed from the Treaty of Dunkirk during the onset of WW2 as a mutual aid and assistance program if either Russia or Germany attacked. This was expanded to the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and Belgium in 48 during the Treaty of Brussels. This was called the Western Union.
Interest in America joining was fairly immediate after America adopted the Truman doctrine, which stated they would support any democracy being attacked by an "authoritarian" government. Which was a response to Stalin enacting the coup in Czechoslovakia after the Communist party in Italy and France failed to make any gains. This of course happened after the Soviet and Nazi split Poland between themselves.
Thus the north Atlantic treaty was formed.
came the Warsaw pact chronologically. The USSR, mind you, was an economic alliance.
The Warsaw pact was a defense agreement? Or are you talking about prior to 55'?
Even if we assume NATO saw the USSR as a threat (it actually was for it's capitalists) and was created as a result, why keep it, if not for imperialism after the dissolution of the USSR?
You said it yourself earlier, NATO wasn't exactly confident in the federation's ability to maintain its commitment to democracy. But there was some cautious optimism, military spending was cut drastically, and there was a large demobilization of military equipment and personal.
NATO had serious talks about it's future, delisted Russia as a sworn enemy, and started to be involved in more humanitarian aid. Russia under Yeltsin aided in the NATO intervention in ethnic cleaning in Bosnia 92'.
Things really don't start to deteriorate until Kosovo in 99'. For some reason this time, Russia wouldn't allow intervention to pass the UN security council, let alone help intervene like in Bosnia. After the conflict was over nato wanted to work with Russia to act as peace keepers, Russia for some reason this time wanted to act independently to look after their serbs. NATO was afraid it would partition the city and lead to future break away conflicts.
Coincidentally from years 97 to 99, Putin served as deputy chief of the Presidential Staff, chief of the Main Control Directorate of the Presidential Property Management Department , 1st class Active State Councillor of the Russian Federation, First Deputy Chief of the Presidential Staff for the regions, head of the commission for the preparation of agreements on the delimitation of the power of the regions and head of the federal center attached to the president, head of the FSB, acting prime minister, Prime Minister, Acting President, and finally elected president in 2004.
US even handpicked Putin
How? By the time Putin left St Petersburg for Moscow Yeltsin was 10% vodka by body weight. They thought they had a handle on Yeltsin like they did in the early days, but he was already somebody else's drunk puppet.
You think I'm a liberal, but I've probably been organizing mutual aid groups for leftist and at risk minority populations for longer than you've been an adult. I can't believe I've witnessed mother fucking Putin go from "Yeltsin attack dog" to "Defender Against Western Hegemony" in such a short period of time?
Interest in America joining was fairly immediate after America adopted the Truman doctrine
A reactionary that knowingly or self-deceptively dropped atomic bombs on Japan, even though Japan was pretty much defeated already.
Which was a response to Stalin enacting the coup in Czechoslovakia after the Communist party in Italy and France failed to make any gains. This of course happened after the Soviet and Nazi split Poland between themselves.
Conveniently jumping timelines and failing to mention the Munich conference, conflating non-aggression pacts with splinting Poland,..
Thus the north Atlantic treaty was formed.
A defensive alliance created in 1949 a significant escalation on a thinly veiled pre-text used by western capitalists.
The Warsaw pact was a defense agreement? Or are you talking about prior to 55’?
A reaction to the NATO formation, came the soviet unions defensive alliance the warsaw pact in 1955. Meaning, the first major escalation came from the Capitalist countries after WW2.
You said it yourself earlier, NATO wasn’t exactly confident in the federation’s ability to maintain its commitment to democracy. But there was some cautious optimism, military spending was cut drastically, and there was a large demobilization of military equipment and personal.
I know it wasn't signed and fuck Gorby for not getting it in writing, but NATO (a defensive alliance) should have been disbanded after the Warsaw pact disbanded. Increasing member states when everything was friendly, communicates geopolitically that there is a threat. What threat if theres no more SU and Yeltsin and Putin being friendly?
NATO had serious talks about it’s future, delisted Russia as a sworn enemy, and started to be involved in more humanitarian aid.
It was a defensive alliance, you're arguiing for a world police which basically means keeping the US as a hegemon. Fuck that.
Things really don’t start to deteriorate until Kosovo in 99’. For some reason this time, Russia wouldn’t allow intervention to pass the UN security council, let alone help intervene like in Bosnia. After the conflict was over nato wanted to work with Russia to act as peace keepers, Russia for some reason this time wanted to act independently to look after their serbs. NATO was afraid it would partition the city and lead to future break away conflicts.
Does not justify having kept NATO after the dissolution of the SU.
US even handpicked Putin
How?
Except that the US said last week that Ukraine WILL join NATO. Its an astounding stupid move when that is precisely what Russia doesnt want to happen. Biden is such a fuck up its astounding. Literally that dick head is pushing us directly into WW3.
Except that the US said last week that Ukraine WILL join NATO.
I wonder why?
Its an astounding stupid move when that is precisely what Russia doesnt want to happen.
No one wanted to join NATO before Russia started experimenting with their break away tactics in Georgia in 08'. Before then most of the time when NATO offered membership the country would reject them. It's actually not really that great of a deal, unless you are afraid of actually being attacked.
Literally that dick head is pushing us directly into WW3.
Ahh yes, the belligerent party who started all this has no autonomy nor responsibility over its own actions.
You are so ignorant as to the situation that I dont know where to start... I would recommend that you read Scott Hortons book "Provoked" because you just have a basic lack of understanding what is happening.
You mean the great mind that brought us "The Great Ron Paul"? I'm sorry, I don't really feel the need to read how America caused all this by failing to protect the free market...
Ron Paul has been one of the greatest politicians we have ever had, but that is not related to the discussion of Ukraine (which he agrees we obviously should have never been involved in). But I guess if you dont know about Ron Paul, you wouldnt know the history of why these conflicts are happening.
Ron Paul has been one of the greatest politicians we have ever had
Maybe if you really enjoy racist cartoons, homophobia, and advocating for a race war?
but that is not related to the discussion of Ukraine
If you make an appeal to authority, I think it's appropriate to criticize the legitimacy of that authority. I think being a fanboy of Ron Paul makes it pretty self evident that he has an odd perspective on current events.
But I guess if you dont know about Ron Paul
Just about his ties to the growing white nationalist movement going back as far as ruby ridge. He is one of the architects of modern organized white nationalist violence.
wouldnt know the history of why these conflicts are happening.
Lol, just because I don't have the same perspective of an oxymoronic an-cap, doesn't mean I'm unaware of history. If there is one consistency in Russian governments of the last 200 years, it's been imperial expansion via Russian chauvinism. It doesnt matter if we're talking about the Romanovs, the Soviets, or the federation, when Russia expands its borders it attempts to annex via assimilation into Russian culture and language.
Oh shit, you're right. Russia doesn't want that, so I guess we should just let them have what they want.
What are you on about? This is a war in which Russia, unprovoked, invaded its neighbor to grab land, bodies, ports, and food. Russia is going to share multiple borders with NATO when this is over; the question is just whether the border is the Ukrainian border or the Polish border. If either of those scenarios results in World War 3, odds are pretty good both of them do. There's simply no universe in which NATO allows Russia to take over all of Eastern Europe (again). Even if the fascists take the US in November, Europe will pour everything it has into stopping Putin's advance.
Sure, Ukraine probably "loses" in the end, in one way or another. By many measures they've already lost. But it's not a binary proposition. The point of propping up Ukraine at this stage is as much about forcing Russia to spend its fighting ability on Ukraine now, instead of in WW3. This desire is part of the reason that capitulating, conceding some land, and letting Russia regroup for a decade before doing a better job next time is only palatable with Ukraine in NATO. The threat of a world war is the only thing that would stop Russia from repeating this bullshit every ten to twenty years for another five generations.
This is a war in which Russia, unprovoked,
This is where it all breaks apart, the war was provoked and avoidable, if you dont understand that the me telling you anything is pointless.
Im all for the facts but wasn’t Russia supposed to win in 3 days? I have a hard time believing much of what they say, in my honest opinion
That was claimed by a US official, which US media distorted and lied about to make it look like that claim came from Russia.
This was not said by Russia, it was said by US General Milley to the US Congress, when he lost his marbles at first when the war started. Later it surfaced as popular cope when NATO shills found a second to breathe.