Just to remind everyone in 2016 people had pretty much already planned their Clinton victory parties and everyone "knew" that Trump was going to lose, the polling was so clear and Trump was such a joke. Perhaps some even took care of "more important" stuff than voting because it was so sure.
So keep your excitement to take you to the voting booths rather than letting it make you complacent.
Even then, the error % on polls is high enough that Trump could be ahead instead.
Polls post their calculated error %. If they could be off by like 5% in either direction, then that’s what they say. And if the poll shows Trump losing by 2%, with a 5% error, that means Trump could win by 3%.
Every single reputable poll that has been published shows a Trump victory within the margin of error.
Polls are all about probability. They can't predict the future. So, even though Hillary was likely to win, there was still a chance that Trump could win. Does this mean that polls are useless? No, because knowing the popularity of your candidate relative to the other candidates is important information.
The polls only look good because they're so much better than they were for Biden. It's still a toss-up, because those percentages are within the margin of error of the polls. (At least, for most of the swing states.)
This would suggest that the polls indicated that Hilary was more popular despite Trump going on to win the popular vote. This did not happen. The majority of Americans dislike Trump and he lost the popular vote and never had an approval rating over 50%.
However, there's a lot of reporting on polls that operate like the popular vote, despite the popular vote not really mattering.
The actual assessment is that the electoral college just doesn't reflect/represent the majority of Americans, and it never really did.
Thanks for saying this. It's Mid-August. There are two whole months in which things can go wildly off the rails. Rather than celebrating polls in mid-August, let's take this happy energy and make plans to go to the only poll that matters -- the actual election -- and make these mid-August hopes turn into January certainty. Plan the celebrations after we win in November, to coincide with Harris taking the Oath in January.
There are two whole months in which things can go wildly off the rails.
It’s astonishing how long the US election cycle is. There’s longer until the next US election than the entire campaign here in the UK, yet it’s all I’ve heard about for the past three years.
Yes, this. During his "presidency", I got so sick of dreading the morning's news. When I'd see someone else and they'd say "did you see/hear what he did now?", you didn't even have to ask who "he" was; you knew.
"Make Politics Boring Again" Republicans have by-and-large politicized a HUGE number of things that should simply be left up to the scientific community. We shouldn't NEED to have hearings on whether the planet is warming. The debate should be on minutia that aims to bring equity to all humanity, and frankly that's pretty boring.
Obviously not. If people would chill out it would have to be about judging and responding to actual policy decision, instead of watching GoT political drama.
The longer the election cycle, the more politics are a show and bad policy can be justified with "election tactics".
Yeah, don't be so sure of winning that you get too lazy to fricking vote. And also watch out because I'm sure there will be some dirty tricks around polling stations as certain Republican areas get desperate
Honestly, I think this is one of the many reasons the hard right hate mail-in voting. There is less time for them pull off their typical rat-fucking dirty tricks if people already mailed in their votes.
Unfortunately I don't see Kamala winning just yet, nothing is certain, there's a lot of Trump supporters in the wood work, and the establishment liberal media play a game of "maybe if we pretend they're losing, they'll lose".
...which is wishful thinking that destroys people's grip on reality, and causes a lot of voters to not bother to show up.
... NBC, MSNBC, CNN, ABC, CBS, FOX (fox has fallen into this group recently), etc. It's crazy that more folks don't realize this. 90% of MSM is pro liberal agenda.
Liberals know mostly know this, but they don't care because they are on their side. MSM bias for the left isn't even argued. It's common knowledge (at least it should be).
Many many local news stations are also run by this media conglomerate, and that's why you will see all these news stations reading from the same script. They have a collective agenda. Well, actually, it's not THEIR agenda, it's the agenda of a VERY small group fed to these stations to repeat.
The term "liberal media" is only used by those within the corporate media itself, right wing kool-aid drinkers, or with scare quotes around it by the actual left.
The term "liberal media" is a correct term because 90% of major news outlets (and media in general) lean left. This is accepted by everyone who has eyes to see.
This is a good place for you to be. It's easy to do little research and find that MSM leans left, like 95% of major news outlets do. The bias for things that are left of center in media isn't even argued by left, or right, or anyone. The only people who don't realize this are those who have "drank the kool-aid". Please, just do a couple of google searches. These major news outlets don't even really hide it. Google "the liberal media" or "major news outlets bias". Something like that.