Thank you to @carpoftruth@hexbear.net for covering my position as Supreme Dictator of the Goddamn News while I was moving and getting set up in my new home in a top secret Kremlin-funded bunker five hundred feet below the ground. Our regularly scheduled programming returns this week.
On October 9th, Daniel Chapo won the Mozambique general election with about 70% of the vote. Chapo is the head of FRELIMO, the Marxist-Leninist party of Mozambique's liberation, which fought an internal anti-communist resistance called RENAMO which was backed by Rhodesia and apartheid South Africa; Frelimo won in 1975. However, as the USSR fell, Frelimo began to allow elections inside Mozambique, and has ruled the country with significant majorities in each election ever since.
The main opposition party inside Mozambique is Podemos, which is led by Venancio Mondlane, a former member of Renamo and trained inside the USA. He alleges that his polling figures predicted a majority win for him, not Frelimo, and has accused Chapo of electoral fraud. There have been the usual slogans about how they yearn for freedom. The EU, of course, "witnessed irregularities." As @WilsonWilson@hexbear.net has pointed out, Mozambique has massive undeveloped gas fields and is outsourcing the development process to France, Norway, the UK, and the USA, while mysterious Islamist groups have popped up to cause chaos in the exact regions which have the gas, slowing the process of actually developing those gas fields. Overall, it appears to be a cookie-cutter colour revolution attempt by the imperial core designed to install a comprador for cheaper resources. Its proximity to BRICS+ member South Africa may also be significant, noting the colour revolution in Bangladesh earlier this year exerting influence near India and China.
Protestors have been battling against the police and government since late October, resulting in dozens of deaths and injuries as well as massive disruption, as the government has intermittently blocked access to the internet and social media. As of today, calm appears to be returning, with border crossings beginning to reopen.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section. Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war. Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis. Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
At an investment conference in Kuala Lumpur recently, I caught up with an old friend and Gavekal client. Over coffee between sessions, we talked about one of the most visible changes of the last few years in Asia: the Chinese cars that have so quickly appeared on roads across the continent. This led us to the comments made in September by Ford chief executive officer Jim Farley. Freshly returned from a visit to China, Farley told The Wall Street Journal that the growth of the Chinese auto sector poses an existential threat to his company, and that “executing to a Chinese standard is now going to be the most important priority.” By any measure, this is an earth-shattering statement.
Making cars is complicated. Not as complicated as making airliners or nuclear power plants. But making cars is still the hallmark of an advanced industrial economy. So, the idea that China is suddenly setting the standards that others must now strive to meet is a sea-change compared with the world we lived in just five years ago.
This led my friend to question how Farley and other auto industry CEOs could have fallen quite so deeply asleep at the wheel. How could China so rapidly leapfrog established industries around the world without all those very well paid Western CEOs realizing what was happening until two minutes ago?
The rest of the piece continues in that more informal style, so I'll just summarize the rest of the article:
During the pandemic, and especially as the Ukraine War was causing chaos, nobody from the West really bothered to visit China, and so haven't seen how things have developed. This is in line with a Dengist strategy of keeping a low profile and not flaunting their capabilities, but it wasn't as if China was stopping them from visiting - CEOs just had other things to worry about with supply chain disruptions.
The author then basically says that China is doing capitalism better than the West, and now the West is (rather hilariously) backing away from jerking off the very concept of globalization and now think tariffs are awesome again.
Next, he talks about how the West has been pretty consistently racist against Asia throughout history, and these racist impulses still very much exist, so they would naturally underestimate China. There's also the fact that China is a communist state, and everybody in the West is brought up on anti-Soviet propaganda (the author doesn't use that word, unfortunately).
He moves on to explaining how the West is assuming that China = Japan 30 years ago, with inaccurate similarities drawn between their economic situations. The West is saying to itself that China will need to do massive fiscal stimulus to keep growing and get out of its "rut", but they don't seem to be considering if this rut is actually intentional, in order to bring down Chinese real estate and focus on more productive endeavors. This graph says it all:
There's no real conception that the collapse in real estate might actually be the policy and not the catastrophic consequence of like, communists not understanding Economics 101. The government explicitly said that this was the goal the entire time. Additionally, the property bust has hit the biggest cities the hardest, especially among millennials, but third and fourth tier cities are doing fairly well (the rural situation is complicated but dissatisfaction is concentrated in older people there). As the first and second tier cities are the most often visited by Westerners, their image of China is disproportionally negative. Meanwhile, in the third and fourth tier cities, there has been an industrial and transportation boom, which has gone almost unreported in the West.
Some more explanations for Western negativity include a general tendency to report bad news more than good news ("China is FIVE DAYS from TOTAL COLLAPSE!" gets more clicks than "Things are doing pretty good in China.") as well as China's lackluster stock market performance relative to its massive improvements, and Americans hyperfocus on stocks.
And, of course, the final contributing factor: that the US is pumping hundreds of millions of dollars to "...raise awareness of and increase transparency regarding the negative impact of activities related to the Belt and Road Initiative, associated initiatives, other economic initiatives with strategic or political purposes, and coercive economic practices.” via the Countering the PRC Malign Influence Fund Authorization Act.
I need to keep that graph handy next time someone talks about the "Chinese real estate bubble." Yes real estate boomed and started to fail...so China corrected by investing in industry. Then compare that to USE and European investment that shot it all back into financial assets instead of actually physical capital.
The Chinese model won't just set the world standard for cars in the next decade, it will set the standard for all trade and industry. My prediction is nation states will move towards SOE with stricter financial controls over investment on industries.
He moves on to explaining how the West is assuming that China = Japan 30 years ago, with inaccurate similarities drawn between their economic situations
I read this article a while ago, super useful. The entire time, the author was wrestling with very real conditions, with material reality, but had such an obvious idealistic position with respect to social conditions that it was honestly funny to read. The conclusions about DEI honestly just came from nowhere, with absolutely no reason, in the middle of an article that could otherwise be considered good analysis.
But this is what happens when investors want to know realistically what's happening: the advisors aren't going to lie because that will hurt their business. So they do a good analysis. But a step further (the 'and why is it so') is just nonsense again
I also think some of it is simple wishcasting. Americans (whether we’re talking about professional economists or Joe Six Pack) cannot wrap their heads around the idea of China not only growing how it has, but even moreso the idea that there is nothing the west can do to stop China’s economy from lapping us. We’ve been checkmated. Saying China’s economy is doing bad is just cope. Any bad news gets latched onto like a bone a dog won’t let go of.
I do wonder how Americans will react when the average person in China undeniably has a better quality of life than the average American (we may already be there afaik, but it’s not readily apparent if so)