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I just hope we’re not seeing the start of a shutdown of the North Atlantic current, which is likely what led to the Younger Dryas ice age, which marked a dramatic climate shift and widespread extinction event over just a couple of decades:
The change was relatively sudden, took place over decades, and resulted in a decline of temperatures in Greenland by 4–10 °C (7.2–18 °F), and advances of glaciers and drier conditions over much of the temperate Northern Hemisphere. A number of theories have been put forward about the cause, and the hypothesis historically most supported by scientists is that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which transports warm water from the Equator towards the North Pole, was interrupted by an influx of fresh, cold water from North America into the Atlantic.
Right now, it’s looking like that may have already started: Study: Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. If that’s the case, things will become very hot and then abruptly freeze, not over the course of a century, but virtually overnight.
e: better link
The thing I keep thinking about, and I feel like I've never been able to properly communicate, is that the machines our society runs on are built to run in a certain temperature range.
The 2021 texas winter fiasco was a perfect demonstration of what happens when we try to run a society's machinery outside of it's expected temperature range. Yes, the ERCOT goofballs were trying to save money by narrowing that expected operating range because "It never gets that cold" and "It never gets that hot", but my badly articulated point still stands - a system was made to operate in a temperature range outside of it's capability, and it started to fail. They were minutes away from losing very expensive and hard to replace equipment. What we don't want is for one of the more competently-run power grids in the world to start to buckle due to temperatures, because the same thing that happened in texas could happen on a larger scale.
And that's just talking about the power grid. Anything with a heat exchanger in it, including your car and air conditioner and all the refrigeration that is needed to keep everyone fed, is designed to run in a certain temperature range, and will stop working if you run it outside of that range for too long.
But wait, we can just design stuff to run in a wider temperature range! We certainly can. But we would have to redesign everything that moves heat around.
Holy shit I've never considered this until now. Survival skills intensify...
When you stop and actually think about our situation you realise how thin our operating margins are, we are at the mercy of whatever the planet does and our safety is subject to immediate dismissal should the conditions change. Worse of course are the random cosmic whims which could wipe us out instantly at any time e.g. comets, the sun going weird, etc.
It's a thought that gives me comfort that we, as a species, will be evicted before we can do irreparable damage so that life can continue to evolve without us.
The Day After Tomorrow.
Basically, yeah.
The day after tomorrow was related, but relied on a no longer mainstream idea that the Arctic vortex could become a whole northern hemisphere storm, so big it would liquify nitrogen in its central low
We really hope that's not a thing that can happen. It would render most of the northern hemisphere dead
Is there any resource for forecasting what will likely occur in a given area? I don't see how we can stop climate change now, so I want to prepare my family for it.
Not that I’m aware of. From what I understand, that scenario would affect the entire planet.
Yeah, but the changes to weather patterns will vary from location to location, right?
This is what I mean:
Warming is already occurring in all areas of the globe, but models of future temperatures show that the changes will not be distributed equally. Polar regions and land areas are expected to see the largest temperature changes.
IPCC Working Group I, 2021
Right, but if that current shuts down, that means the transfer of warm and cold currents that power weather patterns across the entire northern hemisphere will be disrupted.
The last time that happened, the entire northern hemisphere basically froze over. If you live north of the equator, whether it’s North America, Europe, or Asia, the result would be similar: no more warm seasons and freezing to the point of glaciation, from what I understand. I’m not a climatologist, though.