Bulletins and News Discussion from June 24th to June 30th, 2024 - Waiting for War - COTW: Lebanon
Bulletins and News Discussion from June 24th to June 30th, 2024 - Waiting for War - COTW: Lebanon
I'm not gonna lie to you - I thought Israel would have started shit with Hezbollah by now which would have derailed whatever megathread theme I had planned, so I didn't bother planning one.
If you want a decent couple pieces going over what Hezbollah has done to Israel, then have a look at How 'Israel' Has Lost The North and Hezbollah's Quarterly Report. It's not exactly the most professional analysis, as you'll see if you read it, but it gets the point across and relies on evidence. In essence, Hezbollah has pushed the Israelis back tens of kilometers and decimated their border infrastructure, all while unveiling anti-aircraft missiles that have forced Israel to reconsider bombing runs. They still probably have the ability to turn various towns and cities in Lebanon to rubble, but Hezbollah can do massive damage back to Israel in turn. This has gone on so long with so little meaningful opposition by Israel that border settlements are going a little haywire and tentatively declaring independence from Israel and saying they don't want IDF troops there anymore. I don't take these terribly seriously from a military standpoint but it is indicative of the Zionist settler mindset crumbling over the last 9 months.
We're now at the point where Israel kinda has to go to war against Hezbollah or the entire Zionist ideology of military deterrence and expansion via illegal settlements simply no longer functions, but that war will also lead to massive destruction for military and civilian facilities (ports, power stations, war factories, etc) which is a massive problem for Israel's continued existence. Hamas continues to function inside Gaza despite the surface occupation of significant areas, including the Gaza-Egypt border, and attrition there is leading to big materiel and psychological losses for Israel too. And Yemen has, for all intents and purposes, prevailed against America's failed attempt to thwart their blockade - with some in the army claiming it's the most intense naval battle America has faced since WW2 - and missile strikes are tentatively beginning to hit or at least threaten ships in the Mediterranean Sea.
Nukes are still lurking quietly in the background, of course, but the Resistance is perfectly aware of that and still seems confident to go ahead with operations, so I can't really do anything but shrug and say that I trust them to do what's right.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Lebanon! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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So on another forum, some of the most consistently wrong and delusional neoliberals are STILL saying they shouldn't replace Biden.
Some choice quotes:
I think the argument that Biden needs to step aside is short-sighted. The Democrats have nobody with a strong public image that would garner the same voter turnout - replacing Biden this late in the game would basically be throwing in the towel and handing the election to Trump.
Yeah, it's simply too late. We're locked into this. If Biden stepped aside they would just nominate Harris since the DNC would have full control over who gets nominated (and she would also be president if Biden for whatever reason stepped down from the role before the election) and historically taking it out of the hands of the people like that has resulted in very lopsided elections. It's political suicide trying to avoid an impending political stroke. I can't imagine anyone being selected charismatic enough to get over the "political unknown" factor that will sway independents to hesitate or go third-party like how polls show that if Haley suddenly got the position Trump is in a large amount of people would switch to RFK due to unfamiliarity. Whoever was selected would have needed a primary's season to get their name out there enough for people to be on board and also need to be liked enough for that to matter.
Who could they possibly choose? It's too late to enter the primary, the DNC would certainly nominate Harris or Newsom, who both will not win against the GOP in a presidential election, no one in the House is notable enough to fill his shoes and the Democratic party would genuinely take their chances with a mob like on Jan 6th again than nominate a Jewish progressive who is against Israel's extermination campaign and has the heritage background to actually have a meaningful impact on public discourse and governmental action for that.
It's insane to expect Biden to be replaced, short of him dying he isn't going to be, it would be an insanely bad idea and would be the easiest way to ensure the Republican party wins the election.
If the DNC thinks like they do, Trump 2024 is locked in.
Bit idea: Respond to neolibs saying that if you don't support replacing Biden, you are voting for Trump.
They're not wrong that replac8 g him now would be a bad move.
They spent the last year saying "you might not like him but he's rhe only one that can beat trump"
Yoinking him now and say "actually THIS equally uninspiring dipshit is thenonly person can beat trump" is gonna piss off every single person who isnt already blue Maga.
The answer is don't run a clearly sundowning racist that 85% of the entirencountry said they didn't want before he started actively doing a genocide, but they didn't listen when we said that for a year.
It's kind of amazing how many people keep repeating "You may not like Biden but he and Trump are the only choices we have this time" while completely refusing to examine how we arrived at those two choices.
"If the youth doesn't like it they should vote in the primaries"
"You keep canceling the primaries"
"RUSSIAN!!"
Now would be an extremely good time for the Democrats to admit defeat and use the next six months to dismantle the power of the presidency so that Trump can't use it to do what liberals claim they fear he will do. LMAO.
'Member when Obummer was ramping up executive power like nobody's business and donkey fans were like, "YEAH BOIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII! SMASH THAT KILL LIST AND TAP ALL MY PHONE HOLES!" but leftists and even some of the progressives were like, "Uh, maybe not good for either him OR the guys who come after to have all this...." Good times.
I don't think it would be entirely a bad move for the dems honestly. Not as good as him stepping down earlier ofc, but I think most voters would be like 'oh thank god' more than they would be annoyed about the hypocrisy of lying for the last year, and depending on who they replace him with (maybe someone that isn't a charisma vacuum?) they could maybe win (if the person they pick doesn't have super glaring weaknesses.)
It would be a struggle to get name recognition up, but the media does still have a number of months to do it.
Newsom I think would lose because the rest of the country low key hates california, but he is charismatic compared to the average dem, so maybe he could thread the needle.
Bernard obviously won't happen but I feel like he could still pull out a win in the hypothetical where he's nominated. He's got a huge head start in the name recognition dept, and I feel like only the most committed hilldawg and warren stans still hold actual animosity towards him. downside is his age.
Idk if people (even the rubes currently planning on voting for biden) can get excited enough about pritzker but it'd be funny.
No matter what they do it's a dice roll but unless they juice biden up in previously unthinkable ways, swapping him out now might somehow be a better option
Oh my god, the cope, the cope!
User A: just can't figure out why Biden's camp wanted to do this. What was the good outcome here?
User B: I'm guessing he was doing fine whenever the decision was made but at some point within the last week he caught something that's been effecting him quite a bit. I've seen him talk in the past couple months and it was nearly night and day compared to last night.
User C: The campaign said multiple times that he apparently got a cold a few days ago. It's why he sounded a lot better in the after party too, probably sucked on a cough drop for it which doesn't work so well for talking for an hour.
User B: I wonder if they can slot in an extra debate sooner rather than later if both Biden and Trump agree to it. If not then I hope something else can be arranged that will allow masses to see Biden better and not under the effects of a cold. Campaign rallies wouldn't be enough for that.
IT'S JUST A
STUTTERCOLD
no one in the House is notable enough to fill his shoes and the Democratic party would genuinely take their chances with a mob like on Jan 6th again than nominate a Jewish progressive who is against Israel's extermination campaign and has the heritage background to actually have a meaningful impact on public discourse and governmental action for that.
Bro who the fuck are these people, who acknowledges Israel's genocide but simultaneously wants the person most responsible for it being carried out to win reelection, what is this incoherent immoral perversion passing itself off as politics?
These people quite literally do not believe in anything, they're immoral lotus eaters engaged in elaborate role-playing, they're not motivated by real world conditions but wounded semi-cultural resentment against Trump-America, they're malding, MSNBC watching, five-bedroom house suburbanites who didn't get into Ivy League schools and instead were stuck with the chuds in the shitty state colleges and now that their god literally shat himself on national television, the best they can come up with is "political unknowns" and "no takebacksies y'all"
Radlib dipshits to the end
It wouldn't be so bad if the argument was, "don't change horses this late in the race", while at the same time having a stable of competent people waiting in the wings being prepared for the future.
But is there anybody that the Democratic party has trained up and waiting in the wings for the next election? 'Cause it seems like they don't.
It's political suicide trying to avoid an impending political stroke
Or you know, a stroke
Permanently Deleted
I wouldn't be so sure. Why do you think the military waited over 3 hours to respond to January 6?