I think there will need to be a re-invention/ re-write before the 'real' lemmy happens.
The issues around discovery, identity and communities being attached to a server, and how this impacts the math of the networking aspect of the whole concept are really what is preventing Lemmy from not only beating social media like Reddit, but representing a major improvement. The project has grown enough to make that kind of re-investment of time more palatable, but as lemmy currently stands, the protocol is in the way.
We don't need to beat reddit. We don't need to beat anyone. There are no investors or shareholders. There are no stock listings. There are no ads or addictive algos. We are fine as we are now. There is no need for exponential growth. Lemmy should simply be.
Yeah actually, being better matters. Projects like this die with stagnation and attitudes like yours. Sure they'll limp around for years with some core die hards or niche communities, but thats (see: fark, SA, usenet, CL ads, etc..), but that's not the point. Lemmys design is working against its self. Its not clear that it can be fixed under 'lemmy' as it currently exists.
The experience can be much better and there is a clear path towards it. The basic math of how networks operate that creates this issue and its baked into the underlying structure of how lemmy was planned. If these improvements arent implemented, the platform will stagnate: all platforms that don't improve do this. They may persist but they fail to grow, and attrition is constant.
While I agree that we don't need to "beat" anything or strive for growth, I do think those things will happen naturally if the system is an improvement. And while lemmy's potential is great, there are challenges that come with federation, like those mentioned above. And those problems should be solved in time. Not to generate growth but to improve the system. Growth may follow
- People who came here expecting a monolithic Reddit 2.0 will either leave for the hot new thing or centralize themselves on a few major mega-instances.
- Smaller instances will be their own communities (in the general sense) and those that are similar enough will form "neighborhoods" (not in a defederation sense but in an unofficial "hey we talk between each other quite a lot" kinda ad-hoc sense)
- There will be Lemmy forks (or several completely new software) that's explicitly aimed at the above mentioned smaller instances
- Think of Glitch or Hometown over on Masto, or Akkoma
- In a defederation sense, there will be a large and complex venn diagram of instance connections as instance admins take stances between reddit-style free-for-all and safer spaces (and yes, the occasional completely freeze-peach instances that'll get defederated from both)
- Quite a few smaller instances will defederate or otherwise limit communication (assuming the options will exist) from above mega-instances as they'll be extremely lax on moderation to not lose the Reddit free-for-all audience.
TLDR: Just look at the microblogging side of the fedi.
I hope the people who came here for the first one leave instead of making mega instances. We don't need that nonsense here.
The way I see it there are 2 paths forward for Lemmy. Without at least one of these scenarios occuring it seems unlikely that we'll get back to a level of natural growth.
- Reddit starts fucking up again. If this happens it'll probably be because of or sometime around the IPO so be on the lookout for that.
- We start getting significant user growth from other fediverse platforms, likely Mastodon. These users already understand how federation works and are actively looking for a lot of the features that Lemmy has to offer on their existing platforms. I think the way to get there is primarily through topic dedicated instances springing up as professional groups find Mastodon does not truly fit their needs. One recent example of this is links.esq.social which is a brand new currently unfederated instance for lawyers and legal professionals.
I already love it here, no notes 😅
I guess if i had to make a prediction, maybe a significant chunk of the whole network will migrate over to Veilid protocol? Probably not, just throwing it out there
Lemmy.world federates with Threads and becomes the new reddit. Most people stay on it anyway since it has all communities and it's still better than reddit used to be.
Ads are introduced since big instances now needs to be funded due to their size. The ads will be federated and there will be discussions about how everyone must support this model because instance admins need to pay their bills.
An alternative to Lemmy comes along without ads. It's smaller but works in a similar way. People who cant stand ads move there instead. Eventually it gets the same problems as Lemmy has.
There will be a lot of fragmentation in the Lemmyverse. Users can't stand seeing opinions they don't support, so they will move to instances with lots of blocking and rules that support their own views. Inside this bubble they will enjoy seeing only supporting opinions and feel good while using Lemmy.
Why would we split over ads, wouldn't instances and users just block the ads but keep everything else?
Depends on how it's done. If ads are just regular posts, it's impossible to separate them from normal content. Maybe they could be blocked by blocking the bot posting the ad... I don't know how this would work. Guess we will see.
Uhg, you don't even want to know my opinion
Its all startrek memes isnt it?
🤣
Well now I do
Lol 🤣 Oh man, alright. The Fediverse is a giant farce. Wolf in sheep's clothing.
"ItS JuSt LiKe EmAiL "
-_-
Gimme a break.
Everything will turn into little Eco Chambers (as we are seeing) because everyone will constantly defederate.
Pretty much destroying the whole reddit-type experience that we're all looking for and came here to get.
There's too many people who are admins and moderators that are self obsessed and narcissistic and think that hosting a Lemmy server makes them the next Elon musk somehow.
You're not. You're a sociopathic self-obsessed psycho eating Doritos in your basement thinking that you're in charge of something important that will change the world.
This is getting to their heads and breaking instances off, isolating them, causing the user to have to make 16 different accounts so they can access information scattered all over a bunch of servers that is the awesome thing we call the 'fediverse '
Sorry about the rant.
Anyway, there's too many people who want the 'power' to control other instances and regulate what ppl see. There's nothing convenient about it, and to me it seems like the more it goes on there's just going to be added steps, setup, protocols, and other bs and hoops the users are going to have to jump through ( like filling out a fucking personality questionnaire just to join their goddamn server.)
Just be able to even use a website/s where you are not even in charge of what you get to see and who you interact with.
That said, the whole idea of the fediverse just seems like a bunch of bs setup so that a few people can feel powerful and play 'admin' and 'moderator'
It's really Juvenile and ridiculous in my opinion.
Go have a look at their Matrix chats. I'm being serious with you here all they talk about is Def Federation Banning users blocking users limiting users content that they can see. That's all they fucking talk about. Just no thank you I'm good
