July 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Trails Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Tied in Wisconsin - Emerson Polling

Polls are complete shit tools used to sway sentiment and placate voters.

Fuck polls.

VOTE VOTE VOTE!

GET OUT AND VOTE!

(I love the 🇷🇺 Russian downvotes on this comment 😆)

She has the next several months to go out there and hit the campaign trail harder than Trump is physically capable of doing (and much harder than Biden was capable of doing). These numbers only go way up from here.

Harris is going to be far less familiar to voters, particularly the undecideds that aren't as tuned in to politics. I suspect it will be a lot easier for her to potentially win undecided voters than for Trump, who people have had a lot more time to develop opinions about.

And threats to democracy showing up as the number two issue in WI and PA is another good indicator for those states.

Polls are inaccurate. Vote like they don’t exist.

It feels like the wording of the question could be swaying the responses?

In a hypothetical 2024 Presidential match-up between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump who would you vote for at this time?

It's all but guaranteed that this will be the match up in November, it's not really a hypothetical anymore. Previous polls had the question worded when Biden was still running, so it made sense it was a hypothetical. It'd be interesting to see if other polls with differently worded questions yield different results.

Also, interesting results from this question:

Although you are undecided, which candidate do you lean toward?

In AZ and WI, the undecided voters are leaning very favorably to Harris, about 10% points. Trump only leads the undecided voters by 5% points in PA and MI, with GA being evenly split in the undecided vote. Still though, the Combined Presidential Vote is basically evenly split in each of these states based on the polls.

It really seems like it'll be a toss up and will come down to getting the people who aren't sure they're going to vote to be motivated enough to vote.

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill polling in five swing states finds Vice President Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump in four states, and tied in Wisconsin. In Arizona, 49% support Trump and 44% support Harris. In Georgia, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Michigan, 46% support Trump and 45% Harris. In Pennsylvania, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Wisconsin, 47% support Harris and Trump respectively.

Support for Harris surpassed Biden’s support from earlier this month in all five states; in Arizona, by four points (Biden’s 40% to Harris’ 44%), Georgia by five points (41% to 46%), Michigan by three points (42% to 45%), Pennsylvania by three points (43% to 46%), and Wisconsin by four points (43% to 47%).

“Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Harris’ numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March.”

Everything is still fresh and new so Harris has time to rise in the polls. This shows she's trending upwards already.

Ugh …People are so incredibly brainwashed. Donald trump is a traitor to this country. It shouldn’t even be this close.

The error is +/- 3, do all of the states except Ga are a statistical tie in this poll.

Polls are useless. I and many, many others have not done one. This is like a tiny snapshot of a bigger picture.

Good to know which out-of-state plates I'll be brake checking and tailgating for the next 4 years.